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Results: 5

1.
Figure 1

Figure 1. Map of 78 study sites included in this study.. From: Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates.

The site symbols indicate whether a location has annual or semi-annual influenza activity, and symbol size is proportional to the duration of the epidemiological studies used to determine the month of peak activity for each location.

James D. Tamerius, et al. PLoS Pathog. 2013 March; 2013 November;9(3):e1003194.
2.
Figure 2

Figure 2. Influenza peaks and climate by latitude.. From: Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates.

The mean monthly rank of each climate variable corresponding to the month of peak influenza for each 10° latitudinal band. Solar radiation, temperature and specific humidity are lagged by 1 month. The background interval corresponds to the 95% null distribution. (A) displays the results for both primary and secondary influenza peaks; whereas (B) shows the results for primary influenza peaks only. Influenza peaks corresponded to months characterized by low ranks of temperature, solar radiation, and specific humidity in high latitudes. Primary influenza peaks corresponded to months with high ranks of humidity (both relative and specific) and precipitation in low latitudes.

James D. Tamerius, et al. PLoS Pathog. 2013 March; 2013 November;9(3):e1003194.
3.
Figure 3

Figure 3. Influenza peaks, specific humidity and precipitation.. From: Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates.

(A) Estimated U-shaped relationship between the likelihood of an influenza peak and average monthly specific humidity across all sites, based on logistic regression (Table 1). The left side of the curve is strongly correlated with the relationship between specific humidity and influenza survival and transmission observed in laboratory studies [17], [32], [33]. However, the mechanism that causes the pattern on the right side of the curve is not readily explained. (B) The relationship between average monthly specific humidity and precipitation across all sites. Influenza peaks clustered in months associated with low specific humidity and high precipitation conditions. This suggests that precipitation may explain the occurrence of humid-rainy influenza peaks and may be responsible for the right hand side of the U-shaped curve between specific humidity and influenza (A).

James D. Tamerius, et al. PLoS Pathog. 2013 March; 2013 November;9(3):e1003194.
4.
Figure 4

Figure 4. Influenza seasonal distribution for 9 sites selected from an independent epidemiological dataset and climate model outputs.. From: Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates.

(A,C,E,G,I,K,M,O,Q) Box plots indicate the proportion of influenza cases occurring in each month of the year for 9 countries with multiyear data selected from FluNet. Results of the best-fit climate models for all and primary peaks (Tables 1 and 2) are displayed for comparison. Specific humidity and temperature were advanced one month to account for the one month lag between influenza peaks and these variables. Although the models were designed to estimate the timing of peak influenza activity, they also provide estimates of the seasonal distribution of influenza virus circulation. (B,D,F,H,J,L,N,P,R) The right column displays the monthly precipitation, temperature and specific humidity for each location. Dotted lines indicate the climatic thresholds for each variable. In general, when temperature or specific humidity drops below their respective thresholds, or precipitation surpasses its threshold, there is an increase in influenza activity.

James D. Tamerius, et al. PLoS Pathog. 2013 March; 2013 November;9(3):e1003194.
5.
Figure 5

Figure 5. Climatic thresholds predictive of influenza seasonal characteristics.. From: Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates.

(A) density plot showing the specific humidity in absolute terms (x-axis) and relative terms (y-axis) during influenza peaks across all sites. The plot shows that a vast majority of influenza peaks occurred in “cold-dry” conditions when specific humidity was lower than 8 g/kg and ranks were less than 4, or during “humid-rainy” conditions when specific humidity was greater than 14 g/kg and ranks were greater than 9. (B) a line plot showing the average annual range of specific humidity (y-axis) for each location (x-axis). Sites are ordered based on minimum specific humidity. The black dots indicate the specific humidity during the month of the primary peak and circles indicate specific humidity during secondary peaks. Together, the plots suggest that sites with the lowest annual minimum specific humidity have influenza peaks when specific humidity is at locally-minimal levels. (C) a map displaying the predictions of a logistic regression indicating the probability of an influenza peak during the cold-dry season, versus the humid-rainy season, based on annual minimum specific humidity. The markers indicate the 78 study sites with influenza peaks classified as cold-dry (circles) and humid-rainy (squares). (D) same as (C) but the model is based on annual minimum temperature.

James D. Tamerius, et al. PLoS Pathog. 2013 March; 2013 November;9(3):e1003194.

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