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5.
Figure 2

Figure 2. Here we provide the coupled case with α = β = 0.0008.. From: Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations.

One would expect that if we set α = β, the disease and fear epidemic S-curves should coincide, but this is not the case. Fear (the green curve) precedes disease (the red curve).

Joshua M. Epstein, et al. PLoS ONE. 2008;3(12):e3955.
7.
Figure 3

Figure 3. In the idealized run of figure 3, susceptible individuals (blue-curve) self-isolate (black curve) through fear as the infection of disease proper grows (red curve).. From: Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations.

Emboldened by the falling disease incidence, these susceptibles return (prematurely) to circulation (the blue hump). But, this offers fuel to the remaining embers of infection (at time 100), and a second wave ensues.

Joshua M. Epstein, et al. PLoS ONE. 2008;3(12):e3955.
8.
Figure 6

Figure 6. (A&B): A comparison of epidemic duration and total incidence with 10% “fleers” versus 10% “ignorers.”. From: Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations.

As before, each bar in the chart represents an average across 30 simulation runs for a given parameter setting, with standard error range. The runs with 10% “ignorers” have similar incidence to runs with 100% “hiders,” and similar duration to runs with 100% “ignorers.” By contrast, the runs with 10% “fleers” have much higher incidence and lower duration.

Joshua M. Epstein, et al. PLoS ONE. 2008;3(12):e3955.
9.
Figure 5

Figure 5. (A&B): Epidemic duration and total incidence under three different parameter settings.. From: Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations.

Each bar in the chart represents an average across 30 simulation runs for a given parameter setting, with standard error range. When all agents hide, the epidemic is shorter and has substantially lower incidence that with no adaptive behavior. When a small percentage of agents flees (with the majority hiding), however, incidence goes up substantially even as the duration falls farther.

Joshua M. Epstein, et al. PLoS ONE. 2008;3(12):e3955.

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