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Chapter  12:  Management of New Onset Atrial Fibrillation: Evidence Report/Technology Assessment Number 12

A16625

Prepared for:
Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
2101 East Jefferson Street
Rockville, MD 20852
http://www.ahrq.gov

Contract No. 290-97-0006

Prepared by:
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
Robert L. McNamara, M.D., M.H.S.
Principal Investigator
Eric B. Bass, M.D., M.P.H.
Co-Principal Investigator
Marlene R. Miller, M.D.
Jodi B. Segal, M.D., M.P.H.
Steven N. Goodman, M.D., Ph.D.
Nina L. Kim, M.A.
Karen A. Robinson, M.Sc.
Neil R. Powe, M.D., M.P.H., M.B.A.
Investigators

AHRQ Publication No. AHRQ 01-E026

January 2001

On December 6, 1999, under Public Law 106-129, the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) was reauthorized and renamed the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). The law authorizes AHRQ to continue its research on the cost, quality, and outcomes of health care, and expands its role to improve patient safety and address medical errors.

This report may be used, in whole or in part, as the basis for development of clinical practice guidelines and other quality enhancement tools, or a basis for reimbursement and coverage policies. AHRQ or U.S. Department of Health and Human Services endorsement of such derivative products may not be stated or implied.

Prepared for:
Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
2101 East Jefferson Street
Rockville, MD 20852
http://www.ahrq.gov

Contract No. 290-97-0006

Prepared by:
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
Robert L. McNamara, M.D., M.H.S.
Principal Investigator
Eric B. Bass, M.D., M.P.H.
Co-Principal Investigator
Marlene R. Miller, M.D.
Jodi B. Segal, M.D., M.P.H.
Steven N. Goodman, M.D., Ph.D.
Nina L. Kim, M.A.
Karen A. Robinson, M.Sc.
Neil R. Powe, M.D., M.P.H., M.B.A.
Investigators

AHRQ Publication No. AHRQ 01-E026

January 2001

On December 6, 1999, under Public Law 106-129, the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) was reauthorized and renamed the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). The law authorizes AHRQ to continue its research on the cost, quality, and outcomes of health care, and expands its role to improve patient safety and address medical errors.

This report may be used, in whole or in part, as the basis for development of clinical practice guidelines and other quality enhancement tools, or a basis for reimbursement and coverage policies. AHRQ or U.S. Department of Health and Human Services endorsement of such derivative products may not be stated or implied.

Preface

The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), formerly the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR), through its Evidence-Based Practice Centers (EPCs), sponsors the development of evidence reports and technology assessments to assist public- and private-sector organizations in their efforts to improve the quality of health care in the United States. The reports and assessments provide organizations with comprehensive, science-based information on common, costly medical conditions and new health care technologies. The EPCs systematically review the relevant scientific literature on topics assigned to them by AHRQ and conduct additional analyses when appropriate prior to developing their reports and assessments.

To bring the broadest range of experts into the development of evidence reports and health technology assessments, AHRQ encourages the EPCs to form partnerships and enter into collaborations with other medical and research organizations. The EPCs work with these partner organizations to ensure that the evidence reports and technology assessments they produce will become building blocks for health care quality improvement projects throughout the Nation. The reports undergo peer review prior to their release.

AHRQ expects that the EPC evidence reports and technology assessments will inform individual health plans, providers, and purchasers as well as the health care system as a whole by providing important information to help improve health care quality.

We welcome written comments on this evidence report. They may be sent to: Director, Center for Practice and Technology Assessment, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, 6010 Executive Blvd., Suite 300, Rockville, MD 20852.

John M. Eisenberg, M.D.Douglas B. Kamerow, M.D.
Director Agency for Healthcare Research and QualityDirector, Center for Practice and Technology Assessment Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality

The authors of this report are responsible for its content. Statements in the report should not be construed as endorsement by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services of a particular drug, device, test, treatment, or other clinical service.

Structured Abstract

Objectives. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia physicians face in clinical practice, with an incidence of up to 2.3 percent per year and a prevalence of almost 9 percent in those age 80--89 years. In addition to having various symptoms, patients with AF have increased risk for stroke and death. This report synthesizes the available evidence on strategies for handling each of the following key aspects in the management of patients with new onset AF: electrical cardioversion and pharmacological conversion, maintenance of sinus rhythm, ventricular rate control, stroke prevention, outpatient management, and echocardiography.

Search Strategy. The primary sources for the literature search were the Cochrane Collaboration's database of controlled clinical trials (1948 to 1998) and MEDLINE (1966 to 1998). Specific search terms included atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter, both as medical subject headings and as text words.

Selection Criteria. Articles were included in the evidence synthesis if they reported on original data from a randomized controlled trial addressing noninvasive management of non-post-operative atrial fibrillation in adults. Many of these trials included patients with atrial flutter.

Data Collection and Analysis. A review of 521 potentially relevant citations yielded 179 articles that met eligibility criteria. Study quality was assessed and data abstracted by pairs of reviewers. Results are presented in evidence tables and, where deemed appropriate, synthesized by meta-analysis and decision analysis.

Main Results. Questions regarding pharmacological conversion of AF, maintenance of sinus rhythm, pharmacological rate control, and antithrombotic therapy were addressed directly in the clinical trial literature.

For conversion of AF to sinus rhythm, 46 trials were identified that evaluated 18 different medications. Digoxin, verapamil, and diltiazem were found to be no better than placebo and were combined with placebo to form a control group. The bulk of the evidence for any individual agent existed in comparison with this control group, limiting direct agent-to-agent comparisons. The odds ratio (OR) and 95 percent confidence intervals (CI) for successful conversion of AF revealed the strongest evidence of efficacy, and largest treatment effect sizes, for flecainide (OR 24.7, CI 9.0 to 68) and ibutilide/dofetilide (OR 29.1, CI 9.8 to 86) when compared with control. Strong evidence of efficacy with a fairly large treatment effect size also existed for propafenone (OR 4.6, CI 2.6 to 8.2). Quinidine had moderate evidence of efficacy and a modest treatment effect size compared with control treatment (OR 2.9, CI 1.2 to 7.0). Disopyramide (OR 7.0, CI 0.3 to 152) and amiodarone (OR 5.7, CI 1.0 to 33.4) had suggestive evidence of efficacy, while sotalol (OR 0.4, CI 0.0 to 3.0) had suggestive evidence of negative efficacy for conversion. For maintenance of sinus rhythm, 29 trials were identified that evaluated 10 different medications. Strong evidence of efficacy with fairly large treatment effect sizes for maintenance of sinus rhythm, when compared with control treatment, existed for quinidine (OR 4.1, CI 2.5 to 6.7), disopyramide (OR 3.4, CI 1.6 to 7.1), flecainide (OR 3.1, CI 1.5 to 6.2), propafenone (OR 3.7, CI 2.4 to 5.7), and sotalol (OR 7.1, CI 3.8 to 13.4). There were no randomized clinical trials of amiodarone versus control treatment for maintenance of sinus rhythm. One trial provided moderate evidence of efficacy for amiodarone compared with disopyramide for maintenance of sinus rhythm.

For rate control, 45 trials were identified that evaluated 17 medications. The design and outcome measures of these trials were too disparate for meta-analysis. In general, the evidence suggested that calcium-channel blockers and some beta-blockers were effective for controlling heart rate during exercise.

For antithrombotic therapy, 11 trials were identified that evaluated four medications. The aggregate odds of having a stroke for a subject on warfarin compared with a subject on placebo were 0.30 (CI 0.19 to 0.48), indicating strong evidence of the efficacy of warfarin. However, the odds of having a major bleed were 1.90 (CI 0.89 to 4.04), indicating suggestive evidence for a higher bleeding rate for subjects taking warfarin. The evidence on the efficacy of aspirin compared with placebo was moderately strong for subjects without a prior history of stroke (OR 0.65, CI 0.43 to 0.99) but was inconclusive in subjects with a prior history of stroke. The odds of having a major bleed for subjects on aspirin were 0.81 (CI 0.37 to 1.77), indicating inconclusive evidence. The evidence from trials directly comparing warfarin and aspirin was inadequate to permit strong conclusions. The evidence was inconclusive for the use of low molecular weight heparin, induprofen, or a combination of low-dose warfarin and aspirin for stroke prevention.

In decision analysis, one attempt at electrical cardioversion with pharmacological maintenance therapy was estimated to be cost-effective compared with antithrombotic therapy alone for patients 55 years old and older, regardless of risk factors. For stroke prevention in patients at low risk of stroke (~1 percent/year), aspirin was the most cost-effective therapy. In patients with a high risk of stroke (~10 percent/year), warfarin was the most cost-effective strategy for stroke prevention. In those with an intermediate risk of stroke (~3-6 percent/year), the most cost-effective treatment depended on assumptions about the quality-of-life effects of taking warfarin. In patients without risk factors for thromboembolism, transesophageal echo-cardiography was the most cost-effective test for guiding decisions about antithrombotic therapy.

High priorities for additional research are 1) improving the understanding of the effects of treatment of AF on quality of life, 2) assessing the efficacy of amiodarone in randomized controlled clinical trials, 3) evaluating the risks and benefits of each antiarrhythmic medication in subjects with coronary artery disease, and especially the risk of ventricular arrhythmia, 4) directly comparing antithrombotic agents for prevention of stroke, particularly in low- and moderate-risk populations, and 5) determining the safety of outpatient initiation of antiarrhythmic therapy for AF. Many of these priorities and specifically the second one are beginning to be addressed in trials, such as the AFFIRM Study and the PIAF trial.

Conclusions. Several medications were efficacious in conversion of AF and subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm. Calcium-channel blockers and beta-blockers were more efficacious than digoxin in controlling ventricular rate during exercise in subjects with AF. Although subjects on warfarin had higher rates of bleeds, warfarin generally was more efficacious than aspirin in preventing stroke in subjects with AF. One attempt of electrical cardioversion with subsequent pharmacological maintenance is cost-effective compared with antithrombotic therapy alone.

This document is in the public domain and may be used and reprinted without permission except those copyrighted materials noted for which further reproduction is prohibited without the specific permission of the copyright holders.

Suggested citation:
McNamara RL, Bass, EB, Miller MR, et al. Management of New Onset Atrial Fibrillation. Evidence Report/Technology Assessment No. 12 (prepared by the Johns Hopkins University Evidence-based Practice Center in Baltimore, MD, under Contract No. 290-97-0006). AHRQ Publication Number 01-E026. Rockville, MD: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. January 2001.

Summary

Overview

Epidemiology

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia physicians face in clinical practice, accounting for about one-third of hospitalizations for arrhythmia. The prev¡alence of AF is 0.5 percent in those 50 to 59 years old and 8.8 percent in those 80 to 89 years old, and the incidence ranges from 0.2 percent per year in men 30 to 39 years old to 2.3 percent per year in men 80 to 89 years old.

The chronic cardiac conditions most commonly associated with the development of AF are rheumatic mitral valve disease, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, and hypertension. Noncardiac etiologies, often reversible, include hyperthyroidism, hypoxic pulmonary conditions, surgery, and alcohol intoxication. In less than 10 percent of cases no predisposing condition exists; this type of AF is called "lone AF."

One classification of AF includes acute AF (onset within 48 hours), paroxysmal AF (terminated spontaneously on at least one occasion), persistent AF (duration greater than 48 hours and has not terminated spontaneously), and permanent AF (resistant to pharmacological or electrical cardioversion). This evidence report addresses the patient who presents to a clinician for the first time with AF, whether it be persistent or paroxysmal.

The manifestations of AF can be divided into two categories: hemodynamic compromise and thromboembolic complications. Symptoms of hemodynamic compromise range from the classic complaint of irregular palpitations to the more insidious feeling of malaise. The risk of stroke is increased two- to five-fold in those with nonrheumatic AF.

Management

In addition to treating underlying conditions, the management of AF can be divided into three areas: (1) ventricular rate control, (2) cardioversion of AF and subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm, and (3) prevention of thromboembolism. For rate control, clinicians generally choose among digoxin, beta-adrenergic antagonists, and/or calcium-channel-blockers, without a clear consensus about which agent is the most effective.

Direct current cardioversion and numerous antiarrhythmic agents have been proposed for the cardioversion of AF. In addition, a number of pharmacological agents have been used to maintain sinus rhythm after successful cardioversion. The agents used in AF are classified by their electropharmacological actions: Class Ia (quinidine, procainamide, and disopyramide) and Ic (e.g., flecainide, propafenone) agents; Class II agents (e.g., propanolol, esmolol); Class III agents (e.g., amiodarone, sotalol, ibutilide, dofetilide); and Class IV agents (e.g., verapamil, diltiazem). Some agents have properties from different classes; particularly notable are the beta-adrenergic antagonist properties of propafenone and sotalol. The Class I and III agents are the most frequently used to convert to sinus rhythm or maintain sinus rhythm. Their use must be weighed against the risk of ventricular proarrhythmia. Again, no consensus exists regarding which strategy, electrical or pharmacological, or which agent is best.

The prevention of thromboembolic complications predominantly consists of antiplatelet therapy (e.g., aspirin, indobufen); anticoagulation (e.g., heparin, coumadin); or a combination (e.g., aspirin plus low-dose coumadin). Most clinical experts are convinced that warfarin is the most effective agent in the majority of patients, but many clinicians remain reluctant to use warfarin because of the increased risk of bleeding, particularly in the elderly. Also, it is thought that in lower-risk patients the benefits of anticoagulation may not outweigh the risks and costs, but no absolute risk threshold has been established.

Because of safety concerns, antiarrhythmic therapy generally is started in the hospital. For economic and patient convenience reasons, some clinicians are starting certain antiarrhythmic agents in an outpatient setting for some patients. No consensus exists regarding the safety of this practice, and information is needed to determine which agents and which patients are appropriate for outpatient initiation of antiarrhythmic therapy.

Echocardiography has been proposed to aid in the management of AF in three ways. First, echocardiography has been proposed to stratify patients as to risk of stroke. Second, echocardiography has been proposed to identify patients with dilated left atria, who may be less likely to respond to cardioversion attempts. Third, transesophageal echocardiography has been proposed to identify patients without left-atrial thrombus, who safely could undergo acute cardioversion without the conventional 3 weeks of precardioversion anticoagulation. Considerable uncertainty remains about the most appropriate role for echocardiography in the management of AF.

Thus, the management of patients with AF presents many options for the clinician. The initial choice of aggressive rhythm control versus appropriate rate control with treatment to prevent thromboembolism is being tested in a randomized controlled trial, but-even after the results of the trial are known-questions regarding the best strategy for a given patient likely will remain.

Purpose of Evidence Report

This report presents the results of our assessment of the evidence on key issues in the management of AF. The target study population is those with new onset non-postoperative AF, best approximating a typical outpatient presentation. The assessment is limited to first-line strategies, excluding invasive or emerging therapies that are applied more frequently to AF refractory to first-line therapies. Relevant key questions were identified (see Identifying the Questions, below), a systematic review of the evidence pertinent to these questions was performed, and evidence tables of the available information were constructed. Meta-analyses and decision analyses were performed where relevant. The overall objective of this report is to synthesize the evidence that should be used to guide clinicians in their management of patients with new onset AF.

Reporting the Evidence

Recruitment of Experts

We identified a core group of five clinically and/or methodologically oriented technical experts who provided extensive input throughout the project. This group included representatives from the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP) and a clinical expert identified through the American College of Cardiology (ACC) as well as cardiologists from Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions. Other technical experts aided in the identification of the relevant questions and served as peer reviewers of the evidence report. These technical experts included physicians; nurses; and representatives of professional organizations, Government agencies, health plans, and industry.

Patient Population

The target population consisted of ambulatory adult patients with new onset AF, defined as those who present for the first time with persistent or paroxysmal AF, regard¡less of whether the duration of the arrhythmia is known at the time of presentation. Many of the trials on management of AF included patients with atrial flutter, but data were inadequate to support separate conclusions about management of atrial flutter.

Identifying the Questions

By giving a questionnaire to the above-mentioned technical experts, we identified the following key questions:

  • 1

    Which patients with new onset AF should receive attempts at cardioversion and which should receive only conservative treatment with rate control and thromboembolism prophylaxis?

  • 2

    What is the efficacy of electrical cardioversion alone compared with antiarrhythmic therapy alone compared with both together for patients with new onset AF?

  • 3

    What are the risks and benefits of each of the antiarrhythmic agents used for conversion of AF and/or the maintenance of sinus rhythm after successful cardioversion?

  • 4

    What types of therapy for AF can safely be given in an outpatient setting rather than in an inpatient setting?

  • 5

    What is the diagnostic value of tests, such as transesophageal echocardiography and transthoracic echocardiography, that can be used in the evaluation of patients with new onset AF?

In addition, two important supplementary questions, relevant to the key questions, were identified:

  • 1

    How does anticoagulation compare with aspirin in preventing thromboembolism in patients with AF?

  • 2

    How does each of the pharmacological agents used for rate control compare in efficacy?

Methodology

The primary literature source was the CENTRAL database produced by the Cochrane Collaboration's international efforts to identify controlled clinical trials. The specific search terms included "atrial fibrillation" and "atrial flutter," both as subject headings and as text words. MEDLINE also was searched to identify recent publications.

We decided to limit retrieval to randomized controlled trials in order to focus on the studies that used the strongest study design. For the questions concerning outpatient strategies (key question 4) and echocardiography (key question 5), the search strategy retrieved very few citations. It was decided for these questions to conduct additional searches, expanding retrieval to studies other than randomized controlled trials.

Article Review Process

Overall, 521 citations were identified, and 179 articles were deemed eligible for detailed review. The following criteria were used to exclude articles from detailed review: (1) article does not address management of AF or atrial flutter, (2) article does not include human data, (3) study included postoperative AF that could not be separated from data on non-postoperative AF, (4) adults are not part of the study population, (5) study contained no original data, (6) study lacked randomization, and (7) study does not enable the reader to separate subjects with AF or atrial flutter from those with other arrhythmias.

Each article meeting eligibility criteria was assessed for study quality, including representativeness of the study population; bias and confounding; description of therapy; outcomes and followup; and statistical quality and interpretation. Quantitative data were extracted on subject eligibility criteria, baseline subject characteristics that could influence outcomes (age, duration of atrial fibrillation or flutter, comorbidities, etc.), therapeutic protocols, the goal time of followup, outcomes, and adverse events. We extracted data separately for atrial fibrillation and for atrial flutter to address as pure a population of non-postoperative atrial fibrillation as possible.

Based on a preliminary review of the literature, the main questions identified as potentially appropriate for meta-analysis were acute pharmacological conversion, pharmacological maintenance of sinus rhythm, pharmacological heart rate control, and reduction in the rates of stroke associated with antithrombotic therapy. For the other questions that were not amenable to meta-analysis, we used decision analysis to synthesize the evidence.

Presentation of Results and Meta-Analysis

Evidence tables were constructed for the presentation of data on pharmacological conversion, maintenance of sinus rhythm, heart rate control, and the outcomes from antithrombotic therapy. The questions with results appropriate for pooling, defined after the literature was reviewed, involved articles that met the following criteria: (1) had evidence from randomized clinical trials, (2) had an adequate number of trials with qualitatively similar subjects, and (3) had an adequate number of trials that evaluated similar outcomes. For each of the outcome measures, the treatment effect was expressed as an odds ratio; for example, the odds of converting to sinus rhythm on one drug compared with the odds of converting on another drug. In addition, we converted the pooled odds ratios into the number needed to treat (NNT) data for our summary sections to facilitate interpretation of the results.

A qualitative assessment of combinability was performed before a quantitative assessment of heterogeneity could be done. After review of the designs and results of the trials, we decided that the data from the trials using calcium-channel-blockers and digoxin as the comparison agents for antiarrhythmic drugs could be combined with trials that used placebo controls. Ibutilide and dofetilide were the only other pharmacological agents deemed similar enough to allow combination for pooling.

Estimates of the relative rates of the outcomes of interest were pooled using standard methods for combining odds ratios for the outcomes of conversion to sinus rhythm, maintenance of sinus rhythm, stroke, peripheral embolism, major bleeding, minor bleeding, and mortality. Studies were weighted on the basis of the precision of the estimate within each study. A fixed-effects model was used to summarize the evidence, as indicated by a screen for quantitative heterogeneity. In two instances with respect to the conversion data-propafenone versus control treatment and amiodarone versus control treatment-a random-effects model was used because of some quantitative heterogeneity of the data.

The impact of the baseline characteristics of the subjects within each study on the aggregate study outcomes was evaluated. Although only large subgroup effects could be detected because of the small numbers of studies, we thought it was important to explore certain clinically relevant subgroups.

Realizing that it is difficult to categorize the strength of evidence, we felt it was important to facilitate interpretation of the odds ratio (OR). The concept of "strength of evidence" depends on the estimated magnitude of effect, the precision of that estimate, and our confidence that the true effect is different from zero. Quantitatively, all of these dimensions are captured by the point estimate and confidence interval (CI), but it may be difficult to interpret results presented only in that fashion. Therefore, we provided descriptors of the strength of evidence. For the evidence on conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm, an OR greater than 1.0 represents a higher odds of conversion or maintenance of sinus rhythm compared with the comparison group. For the evidence on anticoagulation and antiplatelet agents, an OR less than 1.0 represents a lower odds of adverse events such as stroke and bleeding compared with the comparison group. We chose the following categorization of strength of evidence by noting the placement of the point estimate and the width of the CI surrounding it:

Conversion and Maintenance of Sinus Rhythm:

  • Strong evidence of efficacy: OR > 1.0, 99 percent CI does not include 1.0 (p < 0.01).

  • Moderate evidence of efficacy: OR > 1.0, 95 percent CI does not include 1.0, but 99 percent CI includes 1.0 (0.01 < p < 0.05).

  • Suggestive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI includes 1.0 in the lower tail (0.05 < p < 0.2 to 0.3) and the OR is in a clinically meaningful range.

  • Inconclusive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI widely distributed around 1.0.

  • Strong evidence of lack of efficacy: OR near 1.0, 95 percent CI is narrow.

When the point estimate was less than 1.0, we termed this negative efficacy and used the same categorization of strong, moderate, and suggestive evidence based on the CI.

Anticoagulation and Antiplatelet Agents:

  • Strong evidence of efficacy: OR < 1.0, 99 percent CI does not include 1.0 (p < 0.01).

  • Moderate evidence of efficacy: OR < 1.0, 95 percent CI does not include 1.0, but 99 percent CI includes 1.0 (0.01 < p < 0.05).

  • Suggestive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI includes 1.0 in the upper tail (0.05 < p < 0.2 to 0.3) and the OR is in a clinically meaningful range.

  • Inconclusive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI is widely distributed around 1.0.

  • Strong evidence of lack of efficacy: 95 percent CI symmetrically and narrowly distributed around 1.0.

When the point estimate was greater than 1.0, we termed this negative efficacy and used the same categorization of strong, moderate, and suggestive evidence based on the CI.

In some situations, the above categorizations did not completely capture some element of the results that was important for interpretation, particularly in cases with large point estimates and/or very wide confidence intervals. In those instances, we added additional descriptive text.

Decision Analysis

A Monte Carlo multistate transition model was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness questions not directly or fully addressed in the clinical trial literature.

First, to address the question of what combination of electrical or pharmacological intervention is most cost-effective for cardioversion and subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm (key questions 2 and 3), 17 strategies were evaluated.

(A) Electrical cardioversion without subsequent pharmacological therapy.

(B-G) Pharmacological conversion using one of quinidine, flecainide, propafenone, amiodarone, sotalol, or ibutilide without subsequent pharmacological therapy.

(H-L) Pharmacological conversion with continued therapy using one of quinidine, flecainide, propafenone, amiodarone, or sotalol (ibutilide cannot be used for continued therapy).

(M-Q) Electrical cardioversion with subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm using one of the five agents listed above.

Second, to address the question of what antithrombotic therapy is most cost-effective for the prevention of stroke (supplementary question 2), strategies employing aspirin and warfarin were evaluated.

Third, by comparing the most cost-effective strategies from each of the above two analyses, the overall question of whether to attempt cardioversion or to treat conser¡vatively with antithrombotic therapy (key question 1) was addressed.

Fourth, the implications of the costs of inpatient versus outpatient initiation of antiarrhythmic therapy on the cost-effectiveness of the strategies for cardioversion and subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm (key question 4) were evaluated.

Finally, the question regarding the use of echocardiography to guide antithrombotic therapy (key question 5) was addressed. Strategies employing transesophageal echo-cardiography or transthoracic echocardiography to guide decisions about antithrombotic therapy were compared with the strategy employing either aspirin in all patients or warfarin in all patients.

Findings

Literature Search

Questions regarding pharmacological conversion of AF and maintenance of sinus rhythm, pharmacological rate control, and antithrombotic therapy were addressed directly in the clinical trial literature. Other areas were addressed only indirectly in this body of literature and needed supplementation from observational studies. Two large randomized clinical trials are under way that will address overall rate versus rhythm control and value of transesophageal echocardiography in guiding timing for acute cardioversion.

Evidence Regarding the Efficacy of Antiarrhythmic Agents in the Management of Non-Postoperative AF (Key Questions 1--3)

This review of the literature identified 46 randomized clinical trials on acute cardioversion of AF that included 18 antiarrhythmic agents, listed according to the Vaughan-Williams classification system.

  • Class Ia: Quinidine, procainamide, disopyramide.

  • Class Ic: Flecainide, propafenone.

  • Class II: Beta-blockers (timolol, practolol).

  • Class III: Amiodarone, sotalol, ibutilide, dofetilide.

  • Class IV: Verapamil, diltiazem.

  • Class V: Digoxin.

  • Miscellaneous: Cibenzoline, pirmenol, pilsicainide, magnesium.

This review of the literature identified 29 randomized clinical trials on maintenance of sinus rhythm that included 10 antiarrhythmic agents:

  • Class Ia: Quinidine, disopyramide.

  • Class Ic: Flecainide, propafenone.

  • Class III: Amiodarone, sotalol, N-acetylprocainamide.

  • Class IV: Verapamil.

  • Miscellaneous: Cibenzoline, bidisomide.

The overall quality scores ranged from a low of 36 percent to a high of 95 percent. Of note, however, only nine studies had an overall quality score less than 50 percent. The studies had the largest variability in terms of representativeness of the population, with a range of scores from 0 to 100 percent. All of the other four domains of quality also had considerable variation in scores with the following ranges: bias and confounding, 17 to 100 percent; therapy description, 25 to 100 percent; outcomes assessment, 25 to 90 percent; and statistical analysis, 0 to 100 percent.

Our review of the literature supported the combination of placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, and digoxin into a control treatment group. The bulk of the evidence reported on comparisons of a given antiarrhythmic agent with one of these control groups.

The evidence regarding adverse events, including ventricular arrhythmias, was reported inconsistently and sporadically, limiting its usefulness in this review in both quantitative and qualitative terms.

The evidence on clinical predictors of success in pharmacological conversion was too sparse and disparate to summarize meaningfully.

Pharmacological Conversion of AF

Strong Evidence of Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

The antiarrhythmic agents with the strongest evidence of efficacy and largest treatment effect sizes for conversion of AF, compared with control treatment, were flecainide (OR 24.7, CI 9.0 to 68) and ibutilide/dofetilide (OR 29.1, CI 9.8 to 86). Assuming a control treatment cardioversion rate of 30 percent and using the upper and lower 95 percent confidence limits on these odds ratios, the estimated number of subjects needed to be treated (NNT) in order to see a benefit relative to control treatment ranged from 1.5 to 2.0 for either flecainide or ibutilide/dofetilide.

Strong evidence of efficacy compared with control treatment also existed for propafenone (OR 4.6, CI 2.6 to 8.2), with a fairly large treatment effect size. Again assuming a control treatment conversion rate of 30 percent and using the upper and lower 95 percent confidence limits on this odds ratio, the estimated NNT in order to see a benefit relative to control treatment ranged from 2.0 to 4.5 for propafenone.

We should note here that the NNT is sensitive to the baseline assumption of the control treatment cardioversion rate. For example, if we varied the control treatment cardioversion rate from 5 percent to 75 percent for propafenone, the NNT ranges became 4.0 to 14.3 for a 5 percent conversion rate and 4.7 to 7.5 for a 75 percent conversion rate.

Moderate Evidence of Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

There was moderate evidence of efficacy with a modest treatment effect size for quinidine compared with control treatment for cardioversion of AF (OR 2.9, CI 1.2 to 7.0). Assuming a control treatment cardioversion rate of 30 percent and using the 95 percent confidence limits, the range of number of subjects NNT with quinidine in order to see a benefit relative to control treatment is 2.0 to 25.0.

Suggestive Evidence of Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

Disopyramide (OR 7.0, CI 0.3 to 152) and amiodarone (OR 5.7, CI 1.0 to 33.4) had suggestive evidence of benefit for acute conversion of AF relative to control treatment. The comparison of amiodarone with control treatment, however, was problematic because of the substantial qualitative and quantitative heterogeneity between the combined studies.

Suggestive Evidence of Negative Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

The evidence was suggestive of negative efficacy of sotalol (OR 0.4, CI 0.0 to 3.0) compared with control treatment for acute cardioversion of AF.

Minimal Evidence

Minimal evidence existed for agents in Classes II, IV, and V, and in the miscellaneous category.

Pharmacological Maintenance of Sinus Rhythm

Strong Evidence of Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

All of the following antiarrhythmic agents had strong evidence of efficacy and fairly large treatment effect sizes for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF: quinidine (OR 4.1, CI 2.5 to 6.7), disopyramide (OR 3.4, CI 1.6 to 7.1), flecainide (OR 3.1, CI 1.5 to 6.2), propafenone (OR 3.7, CI 2.4 to 5.7), and sotalol (OR 7.1, CI 3.8 to 13.4). Our review did not support any definitive ranking of these five agents for their efficacy in maintaining sinus rhythm. Using an assumption of 30 percent recurrence of AF by 6 months in the control treatment group and the upper and lower 95 percent confidence limits of these odds ratios, the NNT range for each agent in order to see a benefit relative to control treatment is as follows: quinidine 2.3 to 4.6; disopyramide 2.2 to 9.4; flecainide 2.3 to 10.9; propafenone 2.4 to 4.8; and sotalol 1.8 to 3.1.

Potentially Strong Evidence of Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

Evidence was scarce on use of amiodarone for maintenance of sinus rhythm after cardioversion of AF. One trial, presenting only interim results, had moderate evidence of amiodarone efficacy relative to disopyramide. Because disopyramide had strong evidence of efficacy relative to control treatment, we chose to classify the evidence on amiodarone as "potentially strong evidence" relative to control treatment. Notably, however, we identified no trials of amiodarone compared with control treatment for maintenance of sinus rhythm.

Clinical trials now in progress will help address the paucity of data on amiodarone for maintenance of sinus rhythm.

Minimal Evidence

Minimal evidence existed for N-acetylprocainamide and agents in class IV and the miscellaneous category.

From the Decision Analysis

One attempt at electrical cardioversion with subsequent pharmacological maintenance therapy is cost-effective compared with conservative antithrombotic therapy alone for all patients 55 years old or older, regardless of risk factors.

Evidence Regarding the Efficacy of Drugs for Achieving Ventricular Rate Control of Patients With AF (Supplementary Question 1)

Overall, 45 trials were identified that evaluated 17 agents. The design and outcomes of these trials were too disparate for meta-analysis. Generally, the studies were of high quality in their description of the outcomes and for having objective measures of the outcomes. The studies were weaker in their description of the study groups; it was not always possible to determine if the groups were similar.

Compared with placebo or digoxin, the calcium-channel-blockers diltiazem and verapamil were effective in reducing the heart rate at rest and during exercise in patients with AF.

Compared with placebo or digoxin, beta-blockers were effective in reducing the heart rate during exercise in patients with AF. However, exercise tolerance was decreased on beta-blockers in a number of the studies. The effect of beta-blockers on resting heart rate was inconsistent, with only about half of the studies demonstrating better control with beta-blockers than placebo.

The evidence was not convincing for the use of digoxin, particularly during exercise.

Evidence Regarding the Efficacy of Anticoagulants and Antiplatelet Agents in the Management of AF and Meta-Analysis of the Results (Supplementary Question 2)

For antithrombotic therapy, 11 trials were identified that evaluated four medications.

Strong evidence for the prevention of stroke existed for use of warfarin (OR 0.30, CI 0.19 to 0.48) compared with placebo. However, the evidence was suggestive for a higher bleeding rate on warfarin (OR 1.90, CI 0.89 to 4.04) than placebo. For every 1,000 patients with AF who are treated with warfarin for 1 year, 30 strokes are prevented at the expense of six major bleeds.

The evidence for efficacy in preventing stroke was moderately strong for aspirin (OR 0.65; CI 0.43 to 0.99) compared with placebo. The evidence for an increased odds of major bleeding associated with aspirin (OR 0.81, CI 0.37 to 1.77) compared with placebo was inconclusive. For every 1,000 patients with AF who are treated with aspirin for 1 year, 12.5 strokes are prevented.

The evidence from trials directly comparing warfarin and aspirin did not permit strong conclusions.

The evidence was inconclusive about the use of a combination of low-dose warfarin with aspirin and about the use of low molecular weight heparin or induprofen for stroke prevention.

From the Decision Analysis

Our decision analysis estimated that for patients at low risk of stroke (~1 percent/year), aspirin is the most cost-effective therapy. For patients with a high risk of stroke (~10 percent/year), warfarin is projected to be the most cost-effective strategy. For those with an intermediate risk of ischemic stroke (~3-6 percent/year), aspirin therapy is estimated to be the most cost-effective if quality of life is assumed to be decreased by taking warfarin. If no decrease in quality of life is assumed, warfarin is estimated to be the most cost-effective strategy for the intermediate-risk groups.

Outpatient Initiation of Antiarrhythmic Therapy (Key Question 4)

Our comprehensive literature search did not identify any randomized controlled clinical trials that addressed directly the question of what types of therapy for AF can safely be given in an outpatient setting (key question 4).

Based on the decision analysis, if antiarrhythmic therapy can be started safely as an outpatient, the cost-effectiveness of an attempt of electrical cardioversion with pharma¡cological maintenance therapy is improved considerably. However, more research is needed in this area to determine the safety of this practice.

Echocardiography (Key Question 5)

From our comprehensive literature search of clinical trials, no completed trials were identified that directly addressed the clinical utility of echocardiography in the manage¡ment of AF (key question 5).

Of the 46 studies of acute cardioversion identified in our comprehensive search of clinical trials, only 9 gave information relating left-atrial diameter from echocardiography to success of cardioversion. Although the results were not consistent, they suggested an inverse association between left-atrial diameter and successful cardioversion.

Based on the decision analysis, transthoracic echocardiography is projected to be a cost-effective test for guiding decisions about the choice of antithrombotic treatment in most patients without risk factors for thromboembolism. Transesophageal echocardi¡ography is projected to be a cost-effective test for guiding decisions about the choice of antithrombotic treatment in patients having risk factors for thromboembolism.

Future Research

Two ongoing clinical trials are addressing two of the key questions. One is addressing the decision about aggressive rhythm control versus conservative rate control with anti¡thrombotic therapy. The other is evaluating the use of transesophageal echocardiography in guiding the timing of acute cardioversion of AF.

Future research should include randomized controlled trials and other types of studies:

  • Incorporating assessment of the quality of life of patients with AF.

  • Directly comparing the efficacy and safety of multiple active antiarrhythmic agents, particularly amiodarone, and in different patient subgroups, such as those with coronary artery disease.

  • Developing and/or incorporating strategies for safe outpatient initiation of antiarrhythmic therapy.

  • Comparing warfarin, aspirin, and other antithrombotic agents in moderate-risk and low-risk populations.

  • Addressing the role of transthoracic and transesophageal echocardiography in identifying patient subgroups for different management options.

Many of these recommended research priorities-and specifically the second one-are beginning to be addressed in trials now being conducted.

Chapter 1. Introduction

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia physicians face in clinical practice. The prevalence of AF, estimated to be 0.4 percent of the general population (Ostrander, Brandt, Kjelsberg et al., 1965), increases with age. The Framingham Heart Study found a prevalence of 0.5 percent in those aged 50 to 59 years and 8.8 percent in those 80 to 89 years (Wolf, Abbott, and Kannel, 1991). In Britain, the prevalence of AF was 0.4 percent for men 40 to 69 years old in the Whitehall Study and 0.7 percent for men 40 to 59 years old in the Regional Heart Study (Flegel, Shipley, and Rose, 1987). The prevalence of AF in the Cardiovascular Health Study, which enrolled participants aged over 65 years, was 3 to 5 percent (Furberg, Psaty, Manolio et al., 1994). Although the overall prevalence is higher in women than in men, the age-adjusted prevalence is higher in men (Kannel, Abbott, Savage et al., 1983). In the hospital setting, a series found AF to be the most common arrhythmia, accounting for 34.5 percent of the patients admitted with an arrhythmia (Bialy, Lehmann, Schumacher et al., 1992).

In the Manitoba Followup Study of male air crew recruits, the incidence of AF increased from less than 0.5 per thousand in those under age 50 years to 9.7 per thousand in those over 70 years old (Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., 1995). In the Framingham Study (Wolf, Abbott, and Kannel, 1987), the overall 2-year incidence detected by electro¡cardiography was 5.9 per thousand in men and 3.8 per thousand in women. For men, the incidence tripled with each decade, from 0.4 per thousand per 2-year interval for men 30 to 39 years old to 45.9 per thousand per 2-year interval in men 80 to 89 years old. For women, the incidence doubled with each decade, from 0.0 per thousand per 2-year interval to 35.8 per thousand per 2-year interval. As an indicator of the future impact of AF, the age-adjusted incidence has increased over the 30-year period of the Framingham Study (Prystowsky, Benson, Fuster et al., 1996).

Etiology and Classification

Many different etiologies have been implicated in the development of AF. Self-limited AF is frequent following cardiac surgery and infrequent following myocardial infarction. Noncardiac etiologies, often reversible, include hyperthyroidism, hypoxic pulmonary conditions, surgery, and alcohol intoxication. The chronic cardiac conditions most commonly associated with the development of AF are rheumatic mitral valve disease, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, and hypertension (Kannel, Abbott, Savage et al., 1983; Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., 1995). In the Manitoba Followup Study, 53 percent of those who developed AF had hypertension, 36 percent had ischemic heart disease, 15 percent had congestive heart failure, and 8 percent had valvular disease. In this study, the age-adjusted relative risks (with 95 percent confidence intervals) for the development of AF were 9.9 (7.0 to 14.0) for congestive heart failure, 6.9 (4.5 to 10.7) for valvular heart disease, 3.5 (2.7 to 4.4) for ischemic heart disease, and 2.3 (1.8 to 2.9) for hypertension. All four conditions remained statistically significant in multivariate analysis. In the Framingham Study, echocardiographic associations with AF included left-atrial enlargement and increased left-ventricular thickness (Vaziri, Larson, Benjamin et al., 1993). When no predisposing condition exists, AF is called "lone AF." The reported frequency of lone AF is less than 10 percent of all cases of AF (Brand, Abbott, Kanne et al., 1985; Kopecky, Gersh, McGoon et al., 1987; and Furberg, Psaty, Manolio et al., 1994). However, the frequency observed in a typical office-based setting may be higher (Prystowsky, Benson, Fuster et al., 1996).

The classification of AF remains problematic. Many terms are used inconsistently in the literature. In general, the terms are used to describe temporal patterns. Acute AF often refers to onset within 48 hours (Sopher and Camm, 1996). Paroxysmal AF signifies that the fibrillation has terminated spontaneously on at least one occasion. Persistent AF usually refers to fibrillation with duration greater than 48 hours that has not terminated spontaneously. Permanent AF has been used to describe fibrillation that is resistant to pharmacological or electrical cardioversion. First-onset AF is often distinguished from chronic AF, which can refer to persistent, permanent, or paroxysmal AF (Waktare and Camm, 1998). This evidence report is aimed toward addressing the patient who presents to a clinician for the first time with AF, whether it is persistent or paroxysmal.

Manifestations

The manifestations of AF may be divided into two categories-hemodynamic compromise and thromboembolic complications. Symptoms of hemodynamic compromise range from the classic complaint of irregular palpitations to the more insidious feeling of malaise. In one series of 28 patients awaiting elective cardioversion, exertional dyspnea was seen in 54 percent, while no or minimal symptoms were seen in 21 percent (Waktare and Camm, 1998). Other symptoms included exertional weakness/tired legs (29 percent), somnolence/tiredness (21 percent), rest dyspnea (18 percent), weakness (18 percent), general ill health (18 percent), bloating/fluid retention (18 percent), dizziness/light-headedness (14 percent), mental symptoms such as poor concentration (14 percent), chest pain or discomfort (7 percent), exertional palpitations (7 percent), and rest palpitations (7 percent). These symptoms generally are thought to arise from the increased ventricular rate and the loss of left-atrial contribution to cardiac output. A tachycardia-induced left-ventricular dysfunction also may be responsible for symptoms. However, given the association of left-ventricular dysfunction preceding development of AF, the frequency of this complication is difficult to determine.

Thromboembolism is a well-known complication of AF. In the Framingham Study, the risk of stroke in those with rheumatic heart disease and AF was increased 17-fold compared with age-matched controls (Wolf, Dawber, Thomas et al., 1978). The risk was increased five-fold in those with nonrheumatic AF. In the Manitoba Followup Study, AF independently doubled the risk for stroke (Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., 1995). In the Whitehall Study and the Regional Heart Study, the relative risk for stroke in non¡rheumatic AF was 6.9 and 2.3, respectively (Flegel, Shipley and Rose, 1987). The attributable risk of stroke increased with age in the Framingham Study (Wolf, Abbott, Kannel et al., 1991). The attributable risk of AF for stroke was only 1.5 percent in participants aged 50 to 59 years and increased to 23.5 percent for those aged 80 to 89 years. The increased risk of stroke in patients with AF is thought to be due to thrombi developing in the left atria, particularly the left-atrial appendage, resulting from left-atrial dilatation and loss of left-atrial function.

The total mortality rate also is increased in patients with AF. The Manitoba Followup Study found a 1.3-fold increase (Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., 1995), the Framingham Study a 1.7-fold increase (Kannel, Abbott, Savage et al., 1982), and the Whitehall Study a 2.6-fold increase (Flegel, Shipley, and Rose, 1987).

Management

In addition to treating underlying conditions, the management of AF may be divided into three areas-ventricular rate control, restoration and maintenance of sinus rhythm, and prevention of thromboembolism.

Rate control most commonly is achieved by the pharmacological suppression of conduction and prolongation of refractoriness in the atrio-ventricular node, resulting in a slower ventricular response to the fibrillating atrium. For patients with severe symptoms related to a rapid ventricular rate, intravenous medications often are indicated. For rate control in patients with less severe or no symptoms, oral medications are sufficient. Digoxin has long been used in the management of AF. Beta-adrenergic antagonists and calcium-channel-blockers frequently are used in patients who tolerate them (e.g., who have no significant heart failure). If the pharmacological control of ventricular rate is not effective, nonpharmacological methods such as atrioventricular nodal ablation with permanent pacemaker insertion may be employed.

Restoration of sinus rhythm in patients with AF can be achieved through electrical cardioversion or pharmacological conversion. Lown (1963) first described the use of direct current cardioversion in patients with AF in 1963. Alternatively, several anti¡arrhythmic agents have been proposed for the pharmacological conversion of AF. In addition, these agents have been used to maintain sinus rhythm, whether cardioversion was achieved through electrical or pharmacological means. Quinidine was the first antiarrhythmic agent, introduced in 1918 (Singh, 1998). In the 1960s, multiple other agents were developed, including beta-adrenergic antagonists and amiodarone. The most common classification of antiarrhythmic agents outlined by Vaughan-Williams (Singh, 1998; Vaughan-Williams, 1970) is based on the electropharmacological actions on the myocardial tissue. Class I agents block sodium-channel conduction. These agents are further divided into Ia (quinidine, procainamide, and disopyrimide), Ib (e.g., lidocaine), and Ic (e.g., flecainide, propafenone) classes. Class II agents (e.g., propanolol, esmolol) are beta-adrenergic antagonists. Class III agents (e.g., amiodarone, sotalol, ibutilide, dofetilide) prolong repolarization through potassium channel blockade. Class IV agents are calcium channel antagonists (e.g., verapamil, diltiazem). Some agents have properties from different classes; particularly notable are the beta-adrenergic antagonist properties of propafenone and sotalol. The Class I and III agents are the most frequently used to convert to or maintain sinus rhythm. Their use must be weighed against the risk of ventricular proarrhythmia such as torsade des pointes. Because of this risk of ventricular arrhythmia, antiarrhythmic therapy has traditionally been initiated in a hospital setting. With newer agents having a better toxicity profile, the decreased cost and increased convenience of outpatient treatment may lead to more outpatient initiation.

The prevention of thromboembolic complications predominantly consists of antiplatelet therapy (e.g., aspirin, indobufen), anticoagulation (e.g., heparin, coumadin), or a combination (e.g., aspirin plus low-dose coumadin). Standard heparin, though effective in the acute setting, is not practical for long-term anticoagulation. Low molecular weight heparin has been developed for potential longer-term management but has not yet been adequately studied. Thus, warfarin is the most common long-term anticoagulant. However, safe but effective anticoagulation with warfarin requires chronic laboratory monitoring to remain within a therapeutic window that balances risks of thromboembolic and bleeding complications. The risk-benefit ratio of anticoagulation depends upon the risk status of the patient. Though it is thought that in lower-risk patients the benefits of anticoagulation may not outweigh the risks and costs, no absolute risk threshold has been established. In addition to its use in patients who are to remain in AF chronically, anticoagulation is used for stroke prophylaxis in those patients undergoing acute cardioversion. If AF has been present for more than 48 hours in these patients, therapeutic anticoagulation is recommended for 3 weeks before cardioversion and 4 weeks after cardioversion (Prystowsky, Benson, Fuster et al., 1996).

Echocardiography has been proposed to aid in the management of AF in three ways. First, because a complicating stroke is presumed to originate from an intracardiac thrombus, echocardiography has been proposed to stratify patients as to risk of stroke. Transesophageal echocardiography is highly accurate for visualizing thrombus in the left-atrial appendage (Manning, Weintraub, Waksmonski et al., 1995). Transthoracic echocardiography also can identify patients with left-ventricular dysfunction, who are at high risk for stroke. Second, echocardiography has been proposed to identify patients with dilated left atria, the theory being that these patients would be less likely to be cardioverted to sinus rhythm or less likely to maintain sinus rhythm. Third, trans¡esophageal echocardiography has been proposed to identify patients without left-atrial thrombus, who safely could undergo acute cardioversion without the conventional 3 weeks of precardioversion anticoagulation. A randomized controlled clinical trial-the Assessment of Cardioversion Using Transesophageal Echocardiography (ACUTE)-is under way to evaluate this strategy.

Thus, the management of patients with AF presents many options for the clinician. The initial choice of aggressive rhythm control versus appropriate rate control with treatment to prevent thromboembolism is being tested in a randomized controlled trial (Atrial Fibrillation Follow-up Investigation of Rhythm Management [AFFIRM], 1997; Planning and Steering Committees of the AFFIRM study, 1997). However, this study is not scheduled to finish analysis until 2002. Even after the results of this trial are known, questions regarding the best strategy for a given patient likely will remain. Many strategies of restoration and maintenance of sinus rhythm exist. Similarly, many strategies for the prevention of thromboembolism exist.

Purpose of Evidence Report

This report presents the results of our assessment of the evidence on key issues in the management of AF. We chose to limit the study population to those patients with new onset AF (excluding postoperative AF) to best approximate a typical outpatient pre¡sentation. We chose to limit the assessment to first-line strategies, excluding invasive or emerging therapies applied more frequently to AF refractory to first-line therapies.

We identified the relevant questions, performed a systematic review of the evidence, and constructed evidence tables of the available information. We supplemented the tables with meta-analyses and decision analyses where relevant. The overall objective of this report is to synthesize the evidence that should guide clinicians in their management of patients with new onset AF.

Chapter 2. Methodology

In September 1997, the Federal Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) awarded a contract to the Johns Hopkins University Evidence-based Practice Center (EPC) to prepare an evidence report on the management of new onset atrial fibrillation (AF). The task was to formulate a report that incorporated the best available evidence on this topic. This project consisted of recruiting a group of experts, identifying a target patient population, identifying relevant questions, performing a comprehensive literature search, constructing evidence tables, performing meta-analyses, performing decision analyses, and submitting the report for extensive peer review.

Recruitment of Experts

We identified a core group of five clinically and/or methodologically oriented technical experts who provided extensive input throughout the project. This group included representatives from the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP) and a clinical expert identified through the American College of Cardiology (ACC). The core group of technical experts included the following:

  • Hanan S. Bell, Ph.D., a health scientist with extensive experience in the development of practice guidelines for family physicians.

  • Ronald D. Berger, M.D., Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Medicine in the Division of Cardiology at the Johns Hopkins University, a cardiologist with special training and expertise in cardiovascular electrophysiology.

  • Gary Gerstenblith, M.D., Professor of Medicine in the Division of Cardiology at the Johns Hopkins University, a cardiologist with extensive clinical and research experience in the management of cardiovascular disease in the elderly.

  • David E. Haines, M.D., Professor of Internal Medicine in the Division of Cardiology at the University of Virginia, a cardiologist identified through the ACC with a primary research focus on AF.

  • Michael L. LeFevre, M.D., Professor at the University of Missouri, a family physician representing the AAFP.

Other technical experts helped identify the relevant questions and served as peer reviewers of the evidence report. These technical experts included physicians; nurses; and representatives of professional organizations, Government agencies, health plans, and industry (Appendix A). Of note, we had representatives of a range of professional societies, including the AAFP, the American College of Physicians (ACP), the American Geriatrics Association (AGA), the ACC, the American Heart Association (AHA), and the North American Society of Pacing and Electrophysiology (NASPE). We also had representatives of selected government agencies, including the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA), and representatives of health plans, including Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Maryland and Mid-Atlantic Medical Systems, Inc. (MAMSI).

Two representatives of the American College of Physicians (Jerome A. Osheroff, M.D., and David R. Goldmann, M.D.) have been included on our panel of technical experts because of their interest in exploring the feasibility of incorporating relevant portions of our evidence report into an Internet-based model for providing primary care practitioners with point-of-care access to up-to-date recommendations on how to manage commonly encountered clinical problems. This will give our EPC an exciting opportunity to participate in the development of an innovative way to disseminate the results of our evidence reports.

We decided to broaden the perspective of our panel of technical experts by including nurses who have extensive experience in the management of cardiovascular disease and cardiac arrhythmias. We expect that our nurse experts will help to ensure that all potentially relevant patient concerns are taken into consideration.

This evidence report is targeted toward clinicians involved in the management of AF, including physicians and nurses. Several of the experts indicated that they thought their organizations could use our evidence report to develop new or revised practice guidelines on the management of AF. Other potential uses of the evidence report that were endorsed by our technical experts were to develop a disease management program on AF, to prepare educational materials for physicians, to prepare educational materials for patients, and to guide utilization management plans.

Patient Population

Based on input from our technical experts, we decided to focus primarily on the patient population of greatest importance to primary care practitioners. This target population consisted of ambulatory adult patients with new onset AF, defined as those who present with persistent or paroxysmal AF for the first time, regardless of whether the duration of the arrhythmia was known or unknown at the time of presentation. Pediatric patients were not included in this review because AF is rare in children. Patients who develop AF intra- or postoperatively also were not included because the management issues are substantially different. Patients with atrial flutter were included in many of the trials on management of AF, but the data were inadequate to support separate conclusions about management of atrial flutter.

Identifying the Specific Questions

The study team prepared a brief questionnaire for identifying the most relevant specific questions regarding the management of AF. After a pilot test with the group of core experts, the final version was developed (Appendix B). Through this questionnaire, we asked the experts to independently rate the importance of a number of questions that arise in the management of AF. We sent the finalized questionnaire to our wider group of experts and representatives. From this questionnaire and discussion with the core experts, we identified the following questions, which were addressed in the evidence report:

Key Questions

  • 1

    Which patients with new onset AF should receive attempts at cardioversion and which should receive only conservative treatment with rate control and thromboembolism prophylaxis?

  • 2

    What is the efficacy of electrical cardioversion alone compared with antiarrhythmic therapy alone compared with both together for patients with new onset AF?

  • 3

    What are the risks and benefits of each of the antiarrhythmic agents used for conversion of AF and/or the maintenance of sinus rhythm after successful cardioversion?

  • 4

    What types of therapy for AF can safely be performed in an outpatient rather than an inpatient setting?

  • 5

    What is the diagnostic value of tests, such as transesophageal echocardiography and transthoracic echocardiography, that can be used in the evaluation of patients with new onset AF?

Supplementary Questions

  • 1

    How does anticoagulation compare with aspirin in preventing thromboembolism in patients with AF?

  • 2

    How do each of the pharmacological agents used for rate control compare in efficacy?

Secondary Questions

  • 1

    What are the indications for use of invasive therapy such as the surgical Maze procedure or atrial pacing with a permanent pacemaker?

  • 2

    What are the indications for use of emerging therapy such as an implantable atrial defibrillator, catheter-based Maze procedure, or ablation of focal AF?

  • 3

    What are the performance characteristics of emerging diagnostic tests that could be used in the evaluation of patients with AF?

The evidence report focused primarily on the key questions and the supplementary questions. Although some of our technical experts commented that recent studies have demonstrated the superiority of anticoagulation over aspirin for such patients, we decided to include this as a supplementary question because it remains a fundamentally important consideration in the overall management of AF, and we needed to have an estimate of the magnitude of the benefit of anticoagulation relative to aspirin or no treatment. The efficacy of the various pharmacological agents used for rate control also was included for similar reasons.

In addition, we identified literature that is pertinent to the secondary questions, but we did not have enough resources to perform a formal review and synthesis of this literature. The secondary questions about invasive or emerging therapies apply more to patients' refractory to traditional management strategies than to our targeted patient population.

Based on the input from the technical experts, we decided that some of the questions to be addressed in the evidence report required a meta-analysis, and some required a decision analysis and/or cost-effectiveness analysis, in addition to the initial literature review and synthesis.

Causal Pathway

Having defined the questions that would be addressed in the evidence report, we proceeded with developing a model of the causal pathway of AF. The final causal pathway based upon input from the study team and core experts is given in Appendix C. As indicated in the model, several types of intervention (noted in the ellipses) can alter the underlying pathophysiologic process, and specific diagnostic tests (noted in the circles) have a role in assessing the risk of adverse outcomes (noted in rectangles). Also, a number of patient characteristics can influence the pathophysiologic process. This model of the causal pathway is used to illustrate the clinical and scientific importance of the questions addressed in the evidence report.

Literature Search Methods

Sources

Several literature sources were used to ensure a comprehensive search that would identify all studies potentially relevant to the study questions. The primary source was the CENTRAL database produced by the Cochrane Collaboration's extensive and worldwide efforts to identify controlled clinical trials. CENTRAL is designed to contain studies that may be relevant for inclusion in systematic reviews. Cochrane Collaborators submit for inclusion in CENTRAL the results from searches of electronic databases such as MEDLINE and EMBASE, as well as the results of hand searches of more than 1,000 biomedical journals. The CENTRAL database was accessed via The Cochrane Library, which is issued quarterly. The Cochrane Library 1998 Issue 1 and Issue 2 were searched. A database of search results was developed using the bibliographic software package ProCite.

MEDLINE was used as the second source to ensure comprehensiveness, especially for more recent publication years. The search of MEDLINE took two forms. First, MEDLINE as provided by third-party vendor OVID was searched from 1966 to 1998 using the search strategy outlined in Appendix D, limiting retrieval to those citations tagged as "randomized controlled trial" or "controlled clinical trial." The duplicate check within ProCite was then used to flag any newly identified trials to add to the database created from CENTRAL. MEDLINE was also accessed via PubMed, a system that allows direct access to the MEDLINE database and thus access to those citations most recently added to MEDLINE. MEDLINE, via PubMed, was searched using Phase 1 of the Cochrane optimal search strategy (Appendix E) combined with the search strategy outlined in Appendix D. Citations not tagged as "randomized controlled trial" or "controlled clinical trial" were reviewed by a trained searcher to determine whether they were controlled trials. The ProCite duplicate check was then used for all citations to identify any citations not already included in the search results database. This direct search of MEDLINE via PubMed was completed on a bimonthly basis until June 1, 1998, with each search limited to citations published between 1995 and 1998.

The third source used to ensure completeness of the literature identification process was the PubMed feature of "related articles." A new feature of several Web-based databases, such as OVID and PubMed, is the provision of hyperlinks to related articles for each citation retrieved in a search. The related articles are identified by a non-MeSH-based (MeSH stands for Medical Subject Headings), nonhierarchical search engine that uses a precomputed metric based on textual analysis of titles, abstracts, and MeSH terms. From the search of CENTRAL, primary articles were selected to use in the "related articles" feature to determine whether there were any related and relevant citations that had not already been identified.

A fourth source was a review of recent hand-search results submitted to the Baltimore Cochrane Center. Full copies of the articles submitted by the Cardiovascular Randomized Controlled Trial (CVRCT) Registry were reviewed by a trained hand searcher for relevant citations. The duplicate check of the database in ProCite was then used to identify any newly identified citations.

Other measures were taken to ensure that all relevant studies were identified. The reference lists contained in relevant meta-analyses, recent review articles, and recent major clinical trials were scanned to identify any studies missed by the searches of CENTRAL and MEDLINE. In addition, to identify any new studies published, the core study team scanned the table of contents from those journals most frequently cited in the search results database. The REVEAL (part of UNCOVER) service from the Johns Hopkins University's Welch Library, which delivers tables of contents within 2 or 3 days of the journal publication, was used for this process. The tables of contents from the journals identified from the search results database (see Appendix D) were sent via E-mail to the members of the core study group for review. Any citations identified in this manner were added to the search results database, and the abstracts were reviewed for eligibility.

Search Terms and Strategies

All strategies were designed to maximize sensitivity and were developed in consultation with the members of the core study team. First, an overall search strategy was designed to identify all trials on the management of atrial fibrillation. For this strategy, it was decided to limit retrieval to randomized controlled trials in order to focus on the studies that used the strongest study design.

The overall strategy was modified for use with the different sources. The search strategy used to identify articles in the CENTRAL database is included in Appendix D. To identify articles in MEDLINE, Phase 1 of the Cochrane optimal search strategy (Appendix E) was combined with the topic-specific search strategy (Appendix D).

For the key questions concerning outpatient strategies (key question 4) and different diagnostic strategies (key question 5), the overall search strategy described above retrieved very few citations. It was decided for these questions to conduct additional searches not limiting retrieval to randomized controlled trials. Additional searches were completed for key question 4 about outpatient strategies (Appendix F) and key question 5 about the diagnostic value of tests that can be used in the evaluation of patients with atrial fibrillation (Appendix G).

Abstract Review

All search results were downloaded or hand entered into a database of trials that were considered potentially eligible for inclusion in the literature review. Weekly, or as needed, the abstracts of any newly identified citations were distributed among the core study team for review to determine eligibility. All citations not meeting eligibility criteria were coded with the reason for exclusion. The database, developed in ProCite, was used for tracking search results, the abstract review process, and printing reports regarding identification of relevant literature.

In the review of abstracts, the emphasis was placed on identifying all citations that may have relevant data. The following criteria were used to exclude articles from further consideration:

a) Article does not address management of atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter.

b) Article does not include human data.

c) Study only addressed postoperative atrial fibrillation.

d) Adults are not part of the study population.

e) No original data.

The abstract review form (Appendix H) was pilot tested by three members of the core study team (Eric B. Bass, M.D., M.P.H., Robert L. McNamara, M.D., M.H.S., and David Yu, M.D.) using 30 of the abstracts. As part of the pilot testing, any disagreements were discussed, consensus was reached, and modifications were made to the abstract review form. The remaining citations were then distributed among four reviewers, including two faculty clinician-investigators (Drs. McNamara and Bass) and two clinical trainees with methodologic expertise (Marlene R. Miller, M.D., and Dr. Yu). Each citation was re¡viewed independently by two reviewers, including at least one faculty member. Any disagreements were resolved by consensus of the two reviewers.

In addition to the exclusion criteria, reviewers of the abstracts identified citations that were not written in English so potentially valuable studies reported in other languages would not be overlooked. The reviewers of the abstracts also identified citations that were not controlled trials and checked the questions the abstract addressed.

Article Review

Framing the Questions

Based on a preliminary review of the literature, we anticipated which questions regarding antiarrhythmic and antithrombotic therapy in atrial fibrillation could potentially have sufficient evidence to be evaluated with meta-analytic techniques. The main outcomes identified were acute pharmacological conversion, pharmacological maintenance of sinus rhythm, pharmacological heart rate control, and reduction in the rates of stroke associated with antithrombotic therapy. The resultant questions for the article review were narrowly focused.

Regarding antiarrhythmic management, the questions were as follows:

  • 1

    What is the magnitude of the difference in proportion of subjects with non-postoperative atrial fibrillation who acutely convert to sinus rhythm with each of the different antiarrhythmic agents?

  • 2

    What is the magnitude of the difference in proportion of subjects with non-postoperative atrial fibrillation who are maintained in sinus rhythm with each of the different antiarrhythmic agents?

  • 3

    What is the magnitude of the difference in proportion of subjects with non-postoperative persistent atrial fibrillation who achieve adequate heart rate control with each of the different antiarrhythmic agents?

Regarding antithrombotic management, the questions were as follows:

  • 1

    What is the magnitude of the reduction in risk of stroke for subjects with non-postoperative atrial fibrillation treated with warfarin compared with aspirin, placebo, or other treatment regimens?

  • 2

    What is the magnitude of the increase in risk of major bleeding for subjects with non-postoperative atrial fibrillation treated with warfarin compared with aspirin, placebo, or other treatment regimens?

Selection of Articles

We chose to include in this systematic review only randomized clinical trials. The target population, as discussed in the introduction, was non-postoperative AF. This definition includes persistent AF and paroxysmal AF. Because AF often occurs in association with atrial flutter, we realized that the identified articles might include subjects with persistent or paroxysmal atrial flutter as well. We planned to extract data separately for atrial fibrillation and for atrial flutter in order to address as pure a population of non-postoperative atrial fibrillation as possible. We did not restrict the inclusion of articles based on the duration of treatment, the specific pharmacological intervention, or the study setting. Furthermore, studies were not excluded based on concomitant therapies given to the subjects. Other eligibility criteria to be met for consideration of inclusion in this review were the use of adult, human subjects and presentation of original data. Any inclusion of subjects with postoperative AF resulted in exclusion of the article unless data on non-postoperative subjects could be separately extracted.

Abstraction of Qualitative and Quantitative Data

A form was developed to allow consistent data abstraction from the articles (Appendices I and J). This form included separate sections for the qualitative and quantitative data. The cover sheet of this instrument included seven eligibility criteria. Five of the criteria were those used in the abstract review process, and the two additional items were (1) lack of randomization and (2) inability to separate subjects with AF from those with other arrhythmias. These items were reevaluated at this step in the process to exclude articles that had appeared potentially appropriate for inclusion based on abstract review but that were not when the complete article was reviewed.

To create the qualitative section, we reviewed quality assessment forms used in other meta-analytic studies performed by the principal investigators of this Evidence-based Practice Center. In addition, we reviewed the literature, enlisted the assistance of the Cochrane Collaboration, and had consensus discussions among our study team. The resultant form incorporated the 6 key questions used by the Cochrane Collaboration and 14 key questions identified by Detsky, Naylor, O'Rourke et al. (1992). This quality assessment form was pilot tested for clarity and reproducibility by pairs of reviewers using the form with several articles. Discrepancies in interpretation of the questions were noted and then discussed among all the investigators, and revisions were made as needed. The final quality assessment form contained 22 questions, which were grouped as follows: (1) representativeness of the study population-how completely the authors described the study subjects, (2) bias and confounding-which includes a requirement for description of randomization and degree of masking, (3) description of therapy-which includes the description of the protocol and other therapies received, (4) outcomes and followup-which includes explicit description of the outcomes and the subjects withdrawing, and (5) statistical quality and interpretation. Each question could earn a point value from 0 to 2. The score is the percentage of the total points available in each category. The overall quality score for each study is the average of its five categorical scores.

The quantitative data form resulted from discussions among our study team. For pilot testing, each pair of reviewers reviewed two articles independently. Questions were added to the form as needed, mostly because of the different ways in which outcomes were reported. Additional items were added for completeness, and instructions were circulated regarding interpretation of the questions. These were developed by consensus for the purpose of consistency. The elements collected on this form included the subject inclusion and exclusion criteria as well as baseline subject characteristics that could influence outcomes, including age; baseline left atrial size; duration of atrial fibrillation or flutter; percentage of subjects with atrial flutter; and comorbid illnesses, including hypertension, previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, and any other reported comorbidities. We also abstracted from each article the therapeutic protocols; the goal time of followup; and data regarding the main outcomes and secondary outcomes, including adverse events necessitating cessation of the study drug or reduction of the dosage.

A pair of independent reviewers performed the qualitative and quantitative assessment of each article. All reviewers had both clinical and methodologic experience, and most had graduate education in epidemiology and biostatistics. The main reviewers were Drs. Robert McNamara and Eric Bass, the lead investigators on the project; Dr. Marlene Miller, a pediatric cardiology fellow with graduate training in epidemiology; and Dr. Jodi Segal, a general internal medicine fellow with a master's degree in public health. Additional reviewers were Dr. Steven Goodman, a physician experienced in meta-analysis with a doctorate in biostatistics; Dr. Sean Tunis, a clinician with graduate training in epidemiology; Dr. Robert McCarthy, a cardiology fellow; Dr. David Yu, an internal medicine resident with epidemiology experience; and Paul Abboud, a senior medical student experienced in meta-analysis.

The two reviewers assessed the methodological quality of each study. Disagreements were resolved by consensus, and a quality score was assigned for each question. For the quantitative data, one of the reviewers was assigned primary responsibility for extracting the data for each article. The second reviewer was responsible for checking the accuracy of the first reviewer's data extraction. Again, differences were resolved by consensus. The discussion of the articles was done in batches of approximately 10 articles, so that early comparison of the reviewers' assessments could help to calibrate the reviewers. The reviewers were not masked as to the author, institution, and journal, because it seemed unlikely to make a significant difference in the results (Justice, Cho, Winker, et al., 1998) and because this allowed the process to proceed more expeditiously.

Data from trials that were inappropriate for the meta-analysis were abstracted for other use, including for presentation in evidence tables and for use in the decision and cost-effectiveness analyses. Trials excluded from review altogether were noted with the reasons for exclusion.

All qualitative and quantitative data abstracted were entered into a computer database. This database was subsequently used for construction of evidence tables, and as the source of the data for mathematical pooling.

Obtaining Additional Data From Investigators

Because of resource limitations, we did not seek to obtain additional data or raw data from investigators.

Assessing Publication Bias

In order to assess the existence of important publication bias, we made several inquiries. First, investigators in the field and search coordinators of relevant Cochrane Collaborative Review Groups were asked to identify any trials that have been completed but not published. This did not yield any additional data for evaluation. Second, the final programs of the 1997-98 meetings of the ACC and the AHA were reviewed to search for abstracts suggesting unpublished data. This review did not yield any significant additional data for evaluation.

Evidence Tables

Evidence tables were constructed to present the data retrieved for each key question (Evidence Tables 1-9). Separate tables were created for the evidence on pharmacological conversion, maintenance of sinus rhythm, heart rate control, and the outcomes from antithrombotic therapy. Based on recommendations from the expert review panel, two summary tables were constructed for each of these four main outcome areas, one a study design table and the other a results table. The design tables include information on the source of the article, treatment groups and sample size, additional treatments allowed during the trial but not assigned, goal followup time, inclusion/exclusion criteria, and study quality. The results tables include information on baseline subject characteristics, main outcomes, adverse events, and comments that help in interpretation of the outcomes.

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   Figure 1. Proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion


Notes:
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison
++This point represents 2 distinct trials of propafenone vs. control treatment (confidence intervals for each trial: -0.57,0.18; 0.01,0.13)
+++Confidence intervals for this trial are from 0.54 to 1.0
These three trials with x=0 were offset laterally to avoid the overlap

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   Figure 11. Proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion conjunction with DC cardioversion


Notes:
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
** Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion conjuncion with DC cardioversion
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

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   Figure 23. Proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

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   Figure 30. Proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison
++ LA refers to "long acting"; SA refers to "short acting"

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   Figure 39. Rate control trials of calcium-channel-blockers versus placebo for subjects with atrial fibrillation

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   Figure 44. Rate control trials of digoxin versus digoxin combined with other drugs for subjects with atrial fibrillation

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   Figure 46. Rates of stroke

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   Figure 58. Rates of major hemorrhage

The article abstraction forms were used to create a database. The evidence tables were populated directly from the database. Subsequently, the accuracy of the evidence tables was confirmed by comparison with the original articles. To display the data in a useful form for readers, we generated scatter-plots of the absolute rates of conversion, maintenance of sinus rhythm, rate control, and outcomes with antithrombotic therapy. These figures display the actual rates of each major outcome for each trial by therapy and allow the reader to quickly appreciate the relative efficacy of each therapy (Figures 1 -11 , 23 -30 , 39 -44 , 46 -58 ).

Methods for Mathematical Pooling of Results

Framing the Questions

The questions with results appropriate for pooling were defined after the literature was reviewed. Although we knew which questions we hoped to answer at the outset, we needed to focus the questions based on the available evidence.

The questions to be addressed with mathematical pooling were those that met the following criteria: (1) had evidence from randomized clinical trials, (2) had an adequate number of trials with qualitatively similar subjects, and (3) had an adequate number of trials that evaluated similar outcomes. The proportion of subjects attaining adequate heart rate control was reported too disparately to be combined easily. The data for this outcome were aggregated and presented in evidence table format only.

The specific questions to be addressed by the pooling of the data are as follows:

  • 1

    What is the magnitude of the difference in proportion of subjects with non-postoperative atrial fibrillation who acutely convert to sinus rhythm for each of the different antiarrythmic agents?

  • 2

    What is the magnitude of the difference in proportion of subjects with non-postoperative atrial fibrillation who are maintained in sinus rhythm for each of the different antiarrhythmic agents?

  • 3

    What is the magnitude of the reduction in risk of stroke for subjects with non-postoperative atrial fibrillation treated with warfarin compared to aspirin, placebo, or other treatment regimens?

  • 4

    What is the magnitude of the increase in risk of major bleeding for subjects with non-postoperative atrial fibrillation treated with warfarin compared to aspirin, placebo, or other treatment regimens?

Abstraction of Qualitative and Quantitative Data

The data from the studies identified as appropriate for inclusion in the mathematical pooling were abstracted concurrently with abstraction of the data for the evidence tables. The same review process was done using the qualitative and quantitative data abstraction forms developed for abstracting data for construction of the evidence tables. Many of the data included in the evidence tables were abstracted with the goal of mathematical pooling, including the inclusion and exclusion criteria and the detailed description of the enrolled subjects.

Choice of Effect Measure

The effect measures were chosen to have units most recognizable to the readers. Most of the pooled results are given in terms of odds ratios. For the studies of pharmacological conversion, the treatment effect was expressed as an odds ratio: the odds of converting to sinus rhythm on one drug compared to the odds of converting on the other drug tested. For maintenance of sinus rhythm by the various antiarrhythmic medications, the treatment effect also was expressed as an odds ratio: the odds of remaining in sinus rhythm on one treatment divided by the odds of remaining in sinus rhythm on the other treatment. Finally, for the trials of antithrombotic therapy, the effect of therapy on each outcome is expressed as an odds ratio. For example, the odds ratio for stroke is the odds of having a stroke while on one therapy compared with the odds of having a stroke while on another therapy. The above results are also presented as absolute rates to facilitate the comparison of the rates of different outcomes.

For our summary findings on conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm, we report the important findings not only as odds ratios but also as the number of subjects needed to treat with one agent in order to see a benefit relative to the comparison group. Because this is a key section of our report, we wanted to present the results in various formats so they would be most usable.

Translating these odds ratios into the more clinically relevant concept of the number of subjects needed to be treated (NNT) in order to see a benefit of these agents relative to control treatment was problematic for two reasons. First, there was statistical imprecision of these odds ratio (OR) estimates, reflected in the 95 percent confidence intervals (CI). Second, there was imprecision in estimating the spontaneous conversion rates and recurrence rates in control treatment groups. The overall range of control treatment conversion rates was 0 to 76 percent, probably in part because of chance variation and in part because of differences in subject characteristics such as paroxysmal AF versus long-standing persistent AF. Nevertheless, in order to calculate an NNT we chose to assume a control treatment conversion rate of 30 percent, reflecting the mean control treatment conversion rate of all the included trials. For any particular antiarrhythmic agent, we calculated an NNT range using the upper and lower 95 percent CI estimates as opposed to the point estimate. For calculating NNT in regard to maintenance of sinus rhythm, we assumed a 30 percent recurrence rate of AF in control treatment. This assumption is supported by our evidence tables in studies with adequate followup time, defined as greater than or equal to 6 months.

Judging Combinability

Because a qualitative assessment of combinability was needed before a quantitative assessment of heterogeneity could be done, we examined the evidence tables to assess combinability. We anticipated that different inclusion and exclusion criteria might preclude combination of some of the studies, and also that different dosing regimens or route of administration of the same drugs might preclude combination.

After review of the designs of the trials and discussion with our core clinical experts, we decided that the results from the trials using calcium-channel-blockers and digoxin as the comparison agents for antiarrhythmic drugs could be combined with trials that used placebo controls. Ibutilide and dofetilide were the only other pharmacological agents similar enough to allow for pooling.

After dividing the trials into groups that were clinically relevant to consider together and that appeared qualitatively homogeneous, we assessed the quantitative variability by looking at the within-group heterogeneity, described as a chi-square statistic with n-1 degrees of freedom, where n is the number of studies being combined. When significant heterogeneity was found, the pooled estimates were derived by a random-effects model.

Mathematical Pooling

Estimates of the relative rates of the outcomes of interest were pooled using the usual methods for combining odds ratios for the outcomes of conversion to sinus rhythm, maintenance of sinus rhythm, stroke, peripheral embolism, major bleeding, minor bleeding, and mortality. Studies were weighted on the basis of study size and the precision of the estimate within each study. We used a fixed-effects model to summarize the evidence. In two instances-propafenone versus control treatment for conversion and amiodarone versus control treatment for conversion-we used a random-effects model because of the significant quantitative heterogeneity of the data. The software programs used for these calculations were RevMan 3.1 (statistical software from the Cochrane Collaboration) and STATA 5.0 (Stata Corp., College Station, TX).

Subgroup Analysis

Because data on baseline characteristics of each subject and on the individual's outcome generally were not presented in the articles, we evaluated the impact of the baseline characteristics of the subjects collectively within each study on the aggregate study outcomes. For example, analysis regarding successful pharmacological conversion for subjects with mean left-atrial (LA) size less than or equal to 4.0 centimeters was accomplished by pooling all trials with an overall mean LA size of less than or equal to 4.0 centimeters for all study subjects. Although we realized that this would lessen our ability to detect treatment effects, we thought it was important to explore certain clinically relevant subgroups. For the outcomes of acute conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm, we compared the study results based on the following subgroupings: choice of control treatment (placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin), route of antiarrhythmic administration (intravenous or oral), duration of atrial fibrillation (less than or equal to 2 weeks or more than 2 weeks), mean left atrial size (less than or equal to 4.0 cm or more than 4.0 cm), and inclusion of subjects with atrial flutter (no subjects, some subjects, or all subjects). Specific to acute conversion, we also examined the impact of goal followup time (less than 24 hours or more than or equal to 24 hours). Comparably, with respect to maintenance of sinus rhythm, we also examined the impact of goal followup time (less than 6 months or more than or equal to 6 months). For the trials of antithrombotic therapies, we compared the outcomes of studies based on the target upper limit of the international normalized ratio (INR) (more than or equal to 4.0 or less than 4.0).

Sensitivity Analysis

Because of the small number of studies for each comparison within the subgroupings, the influence of study quality and study size could not be evaluated formally.

Presentation and Interpretation of the Results

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   Figure 12. Meta-analysis on pharmacological conversion


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
* Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Confidence interval using random-effects mode
Individual study data are available on request (Supplemental Figures, 1999)

Click on image to enlarge 

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   Figure 22. Meta-analysis on pharmacological conversion


Notes:
DCC refers to direct current cardioversion
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

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   Figure 31. Meta-analysis on maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

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   Figure 38. Meta-analysis on maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
Individual study data available on request

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   Figure 45a. Summary of meta-analysis results on the efficacy of warfarin versus placebo in patients with atrial fibrillation


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
Individual study data available on request

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   Figure 45f. Summary of meta-analysis results on the efficacy of low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) versus placebo in patients with atrial fibrillation


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
Individual study data available on request

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   Figure 59a. Summary of meta-analysis results on the efficacy of warfarin versus placebo in patients with atrial fibrillation


Notes:
INR refers to International Normalized Ratio
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
Individual study data available on request

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   Figure 59b. Summary of meta-analysis results on the efficacy of warfarin versus placebo in patients with atrial fibrillation


Notes:
INR refers to International Normalized Ratio
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
Individual study data available on request

The results are presented as "forest plots," showing odds ratios and 95 percent confidence interval bars for each study (Figures 12 -22 , 31 -38 , 45a -45f , 59a -59b ). Each figure incorporates a vertical line at an odds ratio of 1.0 in order to emphasize the point of equivalency between two treatments.

Realizing that it is difficult to categorize the strength of evidence, we felt it was important to facilitate interpretation of the odds ratio. The concept of "strength of evidence" depends on the estimated magnitude of effect, the precision of that estimate, and our confidence that the true effect is different from zero. Quantitatively, all of these dimensions are captured by the point estimate and confidence interval, but it may be difficult to interpret results presented only in that fashion. Therefore, we provided descriptors of the strength of evidence. For the evidence on conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm, an OR greater than 1.0 represents a higher odds of conversion or maintenance of sinus rhythm compared with the comparison group. For the evidence on anticoagulation and antiplatelet agents, an OR less than 1.0 represents a lower odds of adverse events such as stroke and bleeding compared with the comparison group. We chose the following categorization of strength of evidence by noting the placement of the point estimate and the width of the CI surrounding it:

Conversion and Maintenance of Sinus Rhythm

  • Strong evidence of efficacy: OR > 1.0, 99 percent CI does not include 1.0 (p < 0.01).

  • Moderate evidence of efficacy: OR > 1.0, 95 percent CI does not include 1.0, but 99 percent CI includes 1.0 (0.01< p < 0.05).

  • Suggestive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI includes 1.0 in the lower tail (0.05 < p < 0.2 to 0.3) and the OR is in a clinically meaningful range.

  • Inconclusive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI widely distributed around 1.0.

  • Strong evidence of lack of efficacy: OR near 1.0, 95 percent CI is narrow.

When the point estimate was less than 1.0, we termed this negative efficacy and used the same categorization of strong, moderate, and suggestive evidence based on the CI.

Anticoagulation and Antiplatelet Agents

  • Strong evidence of efficacy: OR < 1.0, 99 percent CI does not include 1.0 (p < 0.01).

  • Moderate evidence of efficacy: OR < 1.0, 95 percent CI does not include 1.0, but 99 percent CI includes 1.0 (0.01 < p < 0.05).

  • Suggestive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI includes 1.0 in the upper tail (0.05 < p < 0.2 to 0.3) and the OR is in a clinically meaningful range.

  • Inconclusive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI is widely distributed around 1.0.

  • Strong evidence of lack of efficacy: 95 percent CI symmetrically and narrowly distributed around 1.0.

When the point estimate was greater than 1.0, we termed this negative efficacy and used the same categorization of strong, moderate, and suggestive evidence based on the CI.

In some situations, these categorizations did not completely capture some element of the result that was important for interpretation, particularly in cases with large point estimates and/or very wide confidence intervals. In those instances, we added additional descriptive text.

The strength of the evidence is described in the text accompanying the results of the pooled analyses for acute conversion, maintenance of sinus rhythm, and anticoagulant and antiplatelet agents.

Plan for Updating

The literature search strategies used for these meta-analyses were carefully documented, including medical subject headings and keywords. The data abstraction forms had multiple pilot testings and will be stored for future use in updating this report. A computer database of the abstraction results was created, enabling additional data entry as studies are identified. In addition, as discussed, we have registered the meta-analyses with the Cochrane Collaboration to give researchers in the future access to this work. All meta-analyses were performed with the RevMan software to facilitate submission and dissemination of the pooled-analysis through the Cochrane Collaboration database.

Chapter 3. Results

Results of the Literature Search and Abstract Review

Table 1. Summary of Literature Search Results: Overall strategy
SourceRetrievedNumber of Citations Newly IdentifiedEligible for Inclusion
Cochrane Collaboration's CENTRAL database, 1998 Issue 1470470211
Cochrane Collaboration's CENTRAL database, 1998 Issue 21215821
MEDLINE via OVID publication years 1966--199844071
MEDLINE via PubMed publication years 1995--1998 (completed four times)208102
20910
21453
22120
PubMed "related articles" feature20130
Hand search results20080
Total2,284564238
The results of the overall search strategy are summarized in Table 1 in terms of the number of citations retrieved from each source, the number of those citations that were newly identified, and the number of citations deemed eligible for inclusion in the literature review after completion of the abstract review process.

As expected, the majority of the citations retrieved and deemed eligible for inclusion in the literature review were identified from the CENTRAL database (a total of 528 citations identified and 232 considered eligible were from CENTRAL). The search of MEDLINE resulted in only six citations being added to the pool of citations being considered. Each of these citations was very recently published (i.e., after July 1997). The other sources, such as REVEAL, did not identify any citations that were not already identified. Journals cited more than twice in the database are listed in Appendix K.

Table 2. Results of the Abstract Review Process for Citations Identified With Overall Search Strategy
Review ProcessNumber of Citations
TotalNon-English languageNoncontrolled trial
Number of abstracts/articles reviewed521391
Number deemed ineligible283N/AN/A
Number deemed eligible for initial review238391
Number of citations eligible per study question (a citation may be relevant to more than one question)
Key Questions
1. Cardioversion vs. none520
2. Electrical cardioversion vs. pharmacological conversion200
3. Pharmacological conversion or maintenance of sinus rhythm (drug vs. drug; drug vs. placebo)130320
4. Outpatient vs. inpatient strategies200
5. Different diagnostic strategies500
Supplementary Questions
1. Rate control (drug vs. drug, drug vs. placebo)7481
2. Anticoagulation vs. antiplatelet vs. placebo3610
Secondary Questions
1--2. Invasive treatment3730
3. New invasive diagnostic tests200
The overall search strategy retrieved few citations relevant for key questions 4 (outpatient strategies) and 5 (diagnostic strategies) (see Table 2). After a full article review, neither of the two citations classified by the abstract review process as possibly relevant to question 4 were seen as helpful in addressing this question. Of the five citations identified as related to question 5, two were used as background material, but again, none were classified as helpful in addressing the question. Because of the nature of the questions, additional searches that did not limit retrieval to controlled trials were completed on MEDLINE. These additional, broader searches identified 143 citations for question 4 (outpatient strategies) (see Appendices F and G) and 395 citations for question 5 (diagnostic strategies), but none met the criteria for inclusion in a formal synthesis of randomized controlled trials. A review of the citations found none that would enable the determination of an answer to question 4. A subset was identified from the 395 citations identified as relevant for question 5 that were of value to include in the decision analysis.

Of the 564 citations that were identified by the overall search strategy as potentially relevant to the study questions (see Table 1 and Chapter 10: Bibliography), 465 had abstracts. Full articles were retrieved for 56 of the citations without abstracts, and these were then included in the abstract review process. Thus, a total of 521 citations were included in the abstract review process. Forty-three citations were excluded on the basis of their titles without a review of their abstracts. Nineteen of these 43 articles were published in languages other than English (Aberg, 1969; Aberg and Cullhed, 1968; Beck, Gunther, and Hochrein, 1982; Besson and Bogousslavsky, 1991; Bjerkelund and Orning, 1967; Embolic complications, G Chir, 1995; Urban and Vogel Workshop, 1995; Cramer, 1971; De Vil and Bruyneel, 1974; Effert and Merx, 1967; Hartel, Louhija, and Halonen, 1969; Karlson, Torstensson, Abjorn et al., 1991; Koudstaal, 1989; Loogen, Risler, and Seipel, 1972; Mas, 1995; Scardino, Colao, Didonato et al., 1970; Schenk, Schuren, Buschmann et al., 1971; Storz, 1969). Twelve of the articles contained data that this study group knew were published in more recent articles; hence, only the most recent articles were reviewed (Gullov, Koefoed, and Petersen, 1993; The value of quinidine therapy, Klin. Wochenschr., 1969; Hart, 1992; Koefoed, Gullov, and Petersen, 1993; Koefoed, Gullov, and Petersen, 1995; Koefoed, Gullov, Petersen et al., 1997; Morocutti, Amabile, Fattapposta et al., 1997; Ochs, Eichelbaum, Vogelgesang et al., 1984; Storz, 1969). Two of the studies (Blackshear, 1997; Feinberg, Bovill, Nightingale et al., 1997) reported only on outcomes other than those we had defined as being of interest (atrial thrombus and prothrombin fragments), and one was in postoperative patients (Selzer and Walter, 1966). One was a review article of clinical trials (Wiseman, 1972), one did not use a pharma¡cological intervention (Bloch and Andersen, 1995), and one was a registry of drug use (Beevers, 1995), not a clinical trial. Three of the citations were letters to the editor (Camm and Bashir, 1990; Venables, 1988; Wollert, Grossmann, and Eckel, 1997), and one was a proceeding from a scientific meeting (Ingall and the SPAF Investigators, 1997). The two citations of articles in the South African Medical Journal were not retrieved because one was in a supplement from 1969 that was not bound with the rest of the journals and was not retrievable (Obel, 1969), and the other was most likely an opinion paper, not a trial (S Afr Med J, 1997). Thus, a total of 521 citations were reviewed. A summary of the results of the abstract review process is provided in Table 2.

The abstract review identified 283 citations as not eligible for inclusion in this report (see Appendix L for a summary of the reasons for exclusion). Of the 238 eligible citations identified by the abstract review of the results from the overall search, 130 citations were classified to key question 3 (conversion) and 110 citations were classified to supplementary questions 1 and 2 (rate control; anticoagulation) and considered eligible for full article review. Because a few articles were relevant to more than one question, only 231 citations were eligible for full article review. Among those 231 citations, it was not possible to retrieve full articles for 11 citations that were published abstracts only, 39 citations were not in English, 1 was identified as a noncontrolled trial, and 1 was a duplicate citation. The article review was, therefore, completed for 179 citations. At the level of the full article review, an additional 64 citations were removed (see Appendix M), leaving 115 for consideration in this report.

In order to be as complete as possible for the evidence synthesis, we reviewed the English abstracts of non-English language articles. Data were not extracted from these abstracts because of concerns about the adequacy of information in the abstracts, but we reviewed the general findings of the studies. These comments are included with the meta-analysis discussions in the appropriate sections of the report. For key question 3, which had the largest number of non-English language articles (32), only 12 articles represented unique studies with some extractable conclusions regarding antiarrhythmic agents used in the United States. Of all the comparisons in these 12 abstracts, only one-quinidine versus amiodarone for conversion-had conclusions that differed from the results of our meta-analysis.

As shown in Appendix N, the abstract reviewers had very few disagreements, and all of these were easily resolved when the reviewers met to discuss reasons for disagreement. The citations included in the main review of articles are included in the Bibliography.

Five articles were identified too late for inclusion in the evidence synthesis (Appendix O).

Efficacy of Antiarrhythmic Agents in Management of Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation

Primary care practitioners and cardiologists must choose from a number of available pharmacological antiarrhythmic agents for the management of non-postoperative AF without any consensus regarding the best agent. Today, multiple antiarrhythmic agents are used both for acute conversion of AF and for maintenance of sinus rhythm after cardioversion. In this systematic synthesis of the literature, we describe all of the randomized clinical trials of the various antiarrhythmic agents that address either or both outcomes of acute conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm for non-postoperative AF. In this format, the rates of conversion, maintenance of sinus rhythm, and adverse effects can be interpreted in light of the characteristics of the subjects enrolled and other specifics of the treatment regimens. Our primary aim in systematically presenting these studies is to improve the understanding of the evidence regarding the relative efficacy and relative morbidity of the various antiarrhythmic agents for both acute conversion of AF and maintenance of sinus rhythm after cardioversion.

Although clinicians frequently choose one antiarrhythmic agent for both initial conversion and subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm, we felt it was important to separate the evidence. This type of analysis will provide a clear picture of the efficacy of each agent for these two distinct aspects in the management of AF. To further this goal, we also separate the data, when possible, in terms of AF versus atrial flutter because a large percentage of clinical trials involved a mixture of subjects with AF and atrial flutter.

Designs of the Studies

This review of the literature identified 46 randomized clinical trials on acute pharmacological conversion of AF that included the following antiarrhythmic agents, according to the Vaughan-Williams (1970; 1984; Singh, 1998) classification system:

Designs of the Studies
Class Ia:Quinidine (Quinidex, Cardioquin), procainamide (Pronestyl, Procan SR, Procanbid), disopyramide (Norpace)
Class Ic:Flecainide (Tambocor), propafenone (Rhythmol)
Class II:Beta-blockers (timolol, practolol)
Class III:Amiodarone (Cordarone, Pacerone), sotalol (Betapace), ibutilide (Corvert), dofetilide
Class IV:Verapamil, diltiazem
Class V:Digoxin
Miscellaneous:Cibenzoline, pirmenol, pilsicainide, magnesium

For purposes of discussion of the evidence, we refer to the following as the major antiarrhythmic agents for acute conversion of AF: quinidine, procainamide, disopy¡ramide, flecainide, propafenone, amiodarone, sotalol, and ibutilide/dofetilide. The older agents of beta-blockers, calcium-channel-blockers (verapamil, diltiazem), and digoxin are currently viewed as relatively ineffective therapy for conversion. However, they are frequently adjunctive therapy via their rate control abilities (Cobbe, 1997). Our search identified them for this review based on their evaluation in relatively older clinical trials. For ease of presentation in the evidence table, we have grouped these older agents, some of the newest agents, and agents not commonly used into the Miscellaneous category at the end of the tables. These antiarrhythmic agents typically have only one identified clinical trial addressing their use.

The list of antiarrhythmic agents identified in 29 randomized clinical trials regarding maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF is as follows:

Designs of the Studies
Class Ia:Quinidine, disopyramide
Class Ic:Flecainide, propafenone
Class III:Amiodarone, sotalol, N-acetylprocainamide
Class IV:Verapamil
Miscellaneous:Cibenzoline, bidisomide

Comparable to the note above on the antiarrhythmic agents for conversion, we refer to the following as the major antiarrhythmic agents for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF: quinidine, disopyramide, flecainide, propafenone, amiodarone, and sotalol. The calcium-channel-blocker verapamil is currently viewed as ineffective therapy for maintenance of sinus rhythm. It was identified in this review based on relatively older clinical trials. We group the evidence for cibenzoline and bidisomide at the end of the table in a manner similar to that used in the table for conversion. In addition, we identified one trial using N-acetylprocainamide. We report these results also at the end of the table because use of this agent is not common and because all subjects in that trial had atrial flutter.

The most established of the major antiarrhythmic agents for both conversion and subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF is quinidine, with the first published randomized clinical trial in 1971 (Hillestad, Bjerkelund, Dale et al., 1971). Because of limitations in quinidine's efficacy and questions of its safety, however, better agents for pharmacological management of AF have been sought. This has led to the current list of multiple agents with varying mechanisms of action and to a spurt of published randomized clinical trials beginning in the late 1980s. A 1998 review by Waldo and Prystowsky in the American Journal of Cardiology (Waldo and Prystowsky, 1998) listed eight agents as widely available in the United States: quinidine, procainamide, disopyramide, flecainide, propafenone, moricizine (a Ic-like drug), amiodarone, and sotalol. (Our literature review did not identify any randomized clinical trials using moricizine for the treatment of AF.) At present, only three of these drugs-quinidine, flecainide, and propafenone-have approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Admini¡stration for the treatment of AF. Quinidine has broad approval for treatment of AF, whereas flecainide and propafenone are approved for paroxysmal AF in the absence of structural heart disease (Waldo and Prystowsky, 1998).

In addition to trials evaluating these eight agents and trials that tested negative chronotropic agents (beta-blockers, verapamil, diltiazem, and digoxin), our review found trials with several newer agents. These include cibenzoline (Class I with features of Classes III and IV), bidisomide (Class I), pirmenol (Class Ia), pilsicainide (Class Ic), and ibutilide and dofetilide (Class III). Cibenzoline currently is not available in the United States (Waldo and Prystowsky, 1998). We also identified one trial on conversion using magnesium, which has electrophysiologic properties similar to Class IV, the calcium-channel-blockers.

Our review also identified a subsample of studies (n = 9) evaluating the use of direct current cardioversion in conjunction with a particular antiarrhythmic agent (e.g., quinidine, propafenone, sotalol, and verapamil).

Evidence Tables 1 and 2 present the pertinent study design details for the studies that assessed acute conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm. A total of 46 clinical trials were reviewed regarding acute conversion of AF, and 29 trials were reviewed with respect to maintenance of sinus rhythm after cardioversion of AF. In addition, one trial on acute conversion and one trial on maintenance of sinus rhythm included only patients with atrial flutter. Although included in the tables, neither trial is incorporated in any data synthesis. Eight trials presented data on both outcomes and are included in both Evidence Tables 1 and 2. The order of studies in the tables is by the Vaughan-Williams classes; any trials using Class Ia agents are listed first, followed by Class Ic, and so forth. Miscellaneous drugs, those with only one published trial, and trials comparing only verapamil, diltiazem, and digoxin are reported at the end of the tables. Several issues need to be considered when reviewing these evidence tables, and these points will be highlighted in the following discussion.

Comparison Groups

The comparison groups used in the studies differ considerably. Some studies compared two pharmacological agents without a placebo group, whereas other studies incorporated a placebo group for comparison. Furthermore, some studies used as the comparison group verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin-agents widely regarded to have no significant impact on conversion or maintenance of sinus rhythm rates (Cobbe, 1997).

A crossover study design was common. With particular respect to the outcome of acute conversion of AF, these evidence tables reflect only the first treatment group to go through each arm of the study. This orchestration of the data was required because the subjects who were successfully converted in the first phase were not able to participate in the second phase. As a result, the groups compared in the second phase of the crossover studies were less likely to be comparable than the groups in the first phase. The resulting potential bias was felt to outweigh the value of any additional data received from the crossover arms. For trials on maintenance of sinus rhythm, we were able to use all phases of crossover studies. The trials that used a crossover design can be identified in the tables by the fact that the overall subject number (N) is considerably less than the sum of subjects in each treatment arm.

Number of Studies

The number of studies for each particular antiarrhythmic agent ranges from 15 for propafenone, in acute conversion, to 1 for agents such as cibenzoline, pilsicainide, disopyramide, magnesium, pirmenol, timolol, and bidisomide. The strength of our summary data depends on the amount of data that is aggregated. Any conclusions made about agents with only one or two studies need to be viewed cautiously, especially because many of these studies were small.

Publication Year

The year of study publication ranged from 1970 to 1997. Of all the studies listed, however, only six were published in the 1970s. The vast majority of the randomized clinical trials occurred in the late 1980s and the 1990s.

Number of Subjects

With one exception, the number of enrolled subjects varied from 11 to 300. The exception was the Atrial Fibrillation Investigation with Bidisomide (AFIB) Investigators (1994) evaluating maintenance of sinus rhythm, which had a sample size of 1,189. Unfortunately, this trial was the only one evaluating bidisomide, and it was prematurely terminated due to lack of efficacy and the suggestion of increased mortality associated with bidisomide use. Thus, all of the evidence for the major antiarrhythmic agents is based on trials with small to modest numbers of subjects. The ability to detect small differences in efficacy is hampered by these sample sizes. This problem is minimized, however, by the availability of multiple studies for many of the antiarrhythmic agents.

Treatment Regimens

The treatment regimens for each individual antiarrhythmic agent are heterogeneous. This includes the actual dose administered; the route of administration; use of loading doses; and allowance of nonassigned additional pharmacological agents such as digoxin, beta-blockers, and calcium-channel-blockers.

Also, as previously mentioned, nine clinical trials on conversion incorporated direct current cardioversion in conjunction with pharmacological therapy. These regimens involved a pharmacological loading period followed in usually 1 to 7 days by direct current cardioversion. The results of these studies are presented in two tables. First, acute conversion rates due to the pharmacological intervention alone are presented with the other studies on pharmacological conversion (Evidence Table 3). Second, we created an additional table on cardioversion results that shows the data from these nine trials only with respect to cardioversion via pharmacological and electrical means combined (Evidence Table 4). One of these direct current cardioversion studies (Hillestad, Bjerkelund, Dale et al., 1971) is shown only in Evidence Table 4 because no data were provided on cardioversion rates for pharmacological therapy alone.

Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria

All studies had explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria. Of particular note relative to inclusion criteria, there was some variability in the inclusion of subjects with paroxysmal versus persistent AF, in the inclusion of subjects with atrial flutter, and in the specified duration of AF required for enrollment. Because the majority of studies did not provide their working definition of paroxysmal AF, we were unable to arrive at a consensus definition for paroxysmal AF for these evidence tables. Similarly, for the few trials that described using subjects with paroxysmal atrial flutter, a consensus definition was not obtainable. However, because the clinical outcomes of conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm differ between paroxysmal and persistent AF and atrial flutter, we noted in the results tables whenever a study stated that it enrolled paroxysmal AF or atrial flutter subjects. Related to this issue, several studies reported including "recent onset" or "acute" AF. Because this type of wording may suggest paroxysmal AF in some cases and thus may affect reported outcomes, this is also noted in the comments sections of the results tables.

Several studies included subjects with atrial flutter. Overall, 11 studies on conversion and 8 on maintenance of sinus rhythm described inclusion of such subjects. In particular, the trials by Guo, Ellenbogen, Wood et al. (1996) for conversion and Feld (1989) for maintenance of sinus rhythm included only subjects with atrial flutter. Because antiarrhythmic agents may have different efficacy for conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm in subjects with atrial flutter as opposed to AF, this inclusion is important to note. Whenever studies reported data separately for subjects with AF and subjects with atrial flutter, our main outcome data for both conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm reflect subjects with AF only. Atrial flutter data in these trials is shown in the comments section of the results table. The subsequent mathematical pooling of data comparably reflects AF data only, as far as is possible based on the published data. When separation of AF and atrial flutter data was not possible, our later data pooling explored this issue by creating subgroups based on inclusion of subjects with atrial flutter.

The specified duration of AF for inclusion as a study subject varied considerably. Because of the potential association between length of time in AF and difficulty of both conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm, our subsequent meta-analysis evaluated the outcomes stratifying the studies based on duration of AF greater than 2 weeks versus less than or equal to 2 weeks. This factor, in addition to the inclusion of subjects with atrial flutter, was felt a priori to potentially have significant impact on study outcomes.

In terms of exclusion criteria, we report on the following factors that could be associated with differences in outcomes based on their known association with the development of AF: recent myocardial infarction or history of angina pectoris, prior use of other antiarrhythmic agents, presence of congestive heart failure, and presence of other system disease (hepatic, renal, pulmonary, and/or endocrine). Based on the Manitoba Followup Study (Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., 1995), the age-adjusted relative risks (with 95 percent confidence intervals) for the development of AF were 3.5 (2.7 to 4.5) for ischemic heart disease and 9.9 (7.0 to 14.1) for congestive heart failure. A prior use of other antiarrhythmic agents may signify subjects whose AF is particularly resistant to pharmacological management. The presence of other system disease includes conditions known to be etiologic for AF (e.g., hyperthyroidism) and conditions that may affect choice of antiarrhythmic agent (e.g., hepatic failure). Overall, all of these four areas of exclusion involve factors with a known impact on the development of AF and, therefore, potential impact on the response of AF to pharmacological therapy. As a whole, most studies excluded subjects with a recent myocardial infarction or history of angina pectoris or use of other antiarrhythmic agents. Subjects with congestive heart failure or other system disease involving the hepatic, renal, pulmonary, and/or endocrine systems were systematically excluded by roughly half of the studies. When it appears that these factors may affect the observed trial results, comments to that effect are made in the ensuing discussion. Although not shown explicitly in Evidence Tables 1 and 2, within each of these exclusion categories we discovered a range of definitions. For example, criteria ranged from relatively objective New York Heart Association criteria to an array of subjective symptoms for the definition of congestive heart failure. Likewise, the presence of other system disease entailed numerous systems in some studies but only one pertinent system in others.

Overall Study Quality

As described in the methods section of this report, we evaluated study quality in five domains: representativeness of population, bias and confounding, therapy description, outcomes assessment, and statistical analysis. By reporting scores in all domains as well as an overall score, we hope to encourage readers to form their own impression of the strengths and weaknesses of each study. In addition, this review may point out issues to be addressed with future trials. It is important to keep in mind that a limitation of using published reports to assess study design quality is that the evaluation is a mixture of design assessment and reporting assessment.

The studies had the largest variability in terms of representativeness of the popu¡lation, with a range of scores from 0 to 100 percent of possible points on the quality assessment form developed for this project. Although a portion of this variability likely represents variability in reporting rather than true representativeness of the study population, it nevertheless makes it difficult for clinicians to know whether the results of the studies are likely to apply to the types of patients they see in their own practices. All of the other four domains of quality also had considerable variation in scores, with the following ranges: bias and confounding, 17 to 100 percent; therapy description, 25 to 100 percent; outcomes assessment, 25 to 90 percent; and statistical analysis, 0 to 100 percent. Again, percentages are out of all possible points for each domain on our quality assessment form.

The overall quality scores ranged from a low of 36 percent to a high of 94 percent; however, only nine studies had an overall quality score less than 50 percent. Two of these studies were in the small subsample that evaluated antiarrhythmic agents in conjunction with direct current cardioversion (Hillestad, Bjerkelund, Dale et al., 1971; Rasmussen, Wang, and Fausa, 1981). The third study had one of the smallest subject numbers, 15, and therefore will have minimal impact on summary data (Barranco, Sanchez, Rodriguez et al., 1994). The next five studies evaluated flecainide versus cibenzoline (Kuhlkamp, Schmid, Risler et al., 1991), short-acting quinidine versus long-acting quinidine (Normand, Legendre, Kahn et al., 1976), quinidine plus practolol versus quinidine plus placebo (Levi, Proto, and Rovetta, 1973), intravenous flecainide versus oral flecainide (Crijns, van Wijk, van Gilst et al., 1988), and disopyramide versus amiodarone for maintenance of sinus rhythm (Martin, Benbow, Leach et al., 1986). These are the only trials to use these pharmacological comparison groups, and therefore they cannot be combined with other trials for data synthesis. The last trial assessed flecainide versus propafenone for maintenance of sinus rhythm, with a sample size of 97 and an overall quality score of 48 (Aliot and Denjoy, 1996).

With respect to each outcome, the top 25 percent of trials on conversion had overall quality scores between 78 percent and 94 percent, and the top 25 percent of trials on maintenance of sinus rhythm had overall quality scores between 70 percent and 80 percent. Because we realized that any quality assessment reflected not only the methodological quality of the trial but also the reporting, we carefully looked at all the identified trials. Overall, we felt that all the randomized controlled trials had acceptable quality for inclusion in this evidence synthesis.

Despite the limitations in the quality and size of some of the studies, we concluded that there was enough evidence on most of the drug comparisons to warrant a systematic synthesis of the evidence.

Results of the Studies

Evidence Tables 3, 4, and 5 present data on subject characteristics, conversion success rates (Evidence Table 3) or maintenance of sinus rhythm success rates (Evidence Table 5), and adverse effect rates for the included studies. As mentioned previously, Evidence Table 4 reports on only nine studies with the outcome being conversion by pharmacological therapy in conjunction with direct current cardioversion. Figures 1 to 38 present plots of absolute rates and meta-analysis results. These figures will be referenced as appropriate in the text. Supplements to Figures 12-22 and 31-38 are available upon request (Supplemental Figures, 1999).

Comparison across studies should be done with attention to the different subject characteristics as well as differences in regimens and inclusion and exclusion criteria from Evidence Tables 1 and 2. The clinical characteristics reported in these tables were selected because of their potential impact on choice of therapeutic options. Furthermore, these tables should allow a clinician to judge whether his or her patient resembles the enrolled subjects enough to justify use of the results of a particular clinical trial.

Subject Characteristics

The information regarding subject characteristics is displayed in Evidence Tables 3, 4, and 5. The mean age of subjects ranged from 50 to 69 years old for the majority of trials. This is considerably younger than would be expected from a population sample of subjects with AF. In fact, of the studies that reported mean ages, only 23 percent (10/44) of the conversion articles and only 7 percent (2/27) of the maintenance articles had mean ages greater than 65 years. Three trials did not report a mean age. Because the incidence of AF increases with increasing age (Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., 1995) and because response to pharmacological therapy may change with increasing age, it is important to evaluate this effect. Unfortunately, because the trials did not uniformly present age-stratified results, we were not able to explore this association further. Our evidence as a whole is derived from the cumulative population with a mean age range of 50 to 69 years. The age range of subjects was sporadically reported and is not included in these evidence tables.

The majority of trials had roughly even sex distributions, but seven trials were skewed with a distribution of at least 80/20 between the sexes (Suttorp, Kingma, Lie-A-Huen et al., 1989; Guo, Ellenbogen, Wood et al., 1996; Stambler, Wood, Ellenbogen et al., 1996; Ellenbogen, Stambler, Wood et al., 1996; Feld, Nademanee, Noll et al., 1989; Hou, Chang, Chen et al., 1995; Juul-Moller, Edvardsson, and Rehnqvist-Ahlberg, 1990). The first is a trial of flecainide versus verapamil, with 80 percent male subjects. The next three were all trials of the newer agents ibutilide/dofetilide, making one cautious in applying results of these newer antiarrhythmic agents to women. The next study (Feld, Nademanee, Noll et al., 1989) used all male subjects and evaluated an uncommon comparison of quinidine versus N-acetylprocainamide with the entire subject population having atrial flutter. This study, therefore, will not be combined with other studies for further analysis. The study by Hou (1995) looked at amiodarone versus digoxin with 86 percent male subjects, and the study by Juul-Moller (1990) with 81 percent male subjects evaluated quinidine versus sotalol. Based on results of the Framingham Study (Prystowsky, Benson, Fuster et al., 1996), there is evidence for differing incidence rates between the sexes. Because of the potential of differing responses to pharmacological therapy based on sex, it is important to evaluate this effect. Our evidence does not currently allow such an exploration. The outcomes reported here, in general, reflect a fairly evenly mixed population of men and women.

The mean left-atrial diameter in all trials in which it was reported ranged from 3.3 to 5.0 centimeters. Because of the known association between left-atrial enlargement and AF (Vaziri, Larson, Benjamin et al., 1993), this factor may be a potential confounder if it is also associated with response to pharmacological therapy. Our later mathematical pooling of the data includes a subgroup analysis of response based on mean left-atrial diameter less than or equal to 4.0 centimeters versus greater than 4.0 centimeters.

The percentage of subjects with coronary artery disease usually ranged from 0 to 35 percent. As discussed in the section on inclusion and exclusion criteria relative to study design, the presence of ischemic heart disease has an age-adjusted relative risk for AF of 3.5 (Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., 1995). Although this may be a potential confounder of the evidence, we did not perform subgroup analysis based on presence of coronary artery disease because the definition of coronary artery disease varied considerably among the trials or was not defined at all. Given concerns of ventricular arrhythmia in patients using Class Ia agents, presence of coronary artery disease would clearly influence choice of antiarrhythmic agent.

Hypertension was present in 5 to 52 percent of subjects in studies where it was reported. As previously mentioned, the Manitoba Followup Study (Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., 1995) estimated a relative risk of AF in the presence of hypertension to be 2.3. Comparable to the situation regarding presence of coronary artery disease, we did not perform subgroup analysis to explore this potential confounder because of the inconsistent definition of hypertension in the trials.

The presence of valvular heart disease had more variability, with a range of 0 to 71 percent, although in the majority of studies less than 40 percent of subjects had valvular heart disease. The Manitoba Followup Study (Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., 1995) estimated the relative risk of AF with valvular disease to be 7.0. Because of inconsistent definitions of valvular disease by the reviewed trials, however, a subgroup analysis of this potential confounder was not possible based on the evidence.

The inclusion of subjects with atrial flutter was reported sporadically but typically fell in the range of 0 to 40 percent, with two exceptions. Both Guo, Ellenbogen, Wood et al. (1996) and Feld (1989) reported that 100 percent of their subjects had atrial flutter. Because our target population for this literature review was subjects with AF, whenever possible we extracted the data separately for AF versus atrial flutter. Our tables and subsequent mathematical pooling of the data reflect as pure a population of AF as possible.

For the outcome of maintenance of sinus rhythm, we noted the percentage of subjects with paroxysmal AF due to the expected differences in successful maintenance of sinus rhythm between paroxysmal and more persistent forms of AF. Unfortunately, the percentage of subjects with paroxysmal AF also was reported sporadically. Several studies made blanket statements that the subjects had paroxysmal AF, and this is noted in the comments section of the results tables. As mentioned before, we also noted when studies stated that the enrolled subjects had "recent onset" or "acute" AF and paroxysmal atrial flutter. In examining the evidence, our discussion highlights instances where outcome differences may be influenced by the use of subjects with paroxysmal AF versus persistent AF. We were not able to do subgroup analysis of these two categories of AF because of the inconsistent definitions and reporting provided by the trials.

Acute Conversion of AF
Evidence tables for acute conversion of AF

The reported pharmacological conversion rates for each study are shown in Evidence Table 3. Evidence Table 4 reports on the combined outcome of pharmacological conversion in conjunction with direct current cardioversion and will be discussed at the end of this section. A crude summary of the rates for successful conversion of AF by each of the major antiarrhythmic agents and the number of trials for each agent is as follows:

Quinidine (Quinaglute, Quinidex)11--86%(n = 6)
Procainamide (Procan)63%(n = 1)
Disopyramide (Norpace)23%(n = 1)
Flecainide (Tambocor)52-95%(n = 8)
Propafenone (Rythmol)6--91%(n = 15)
Amiodarone Cordarone)25--92%(n = 6)
Sotalol (Betapace)8--52%(n = 3)
Ibutilide (Corvert)/Dofetilide10--49%(n = 3)
Control treatment0--76%(n = 25)

These numbers must be interpreted in light of all of the study design characteristics mentioned previously. In particular, the broad range of conversion incidence rates for the control treatment groups likely reflects the inclusion of subjects with paroxysmal AF by some of the trials. Several agents, including beta-blockers, had scarce evidence and for ease of presentation are discussed at the end of this session as "miscellaneous antiarrhythmic agents."

For data synthesis purposes, we chose to combine the following as control treatment groups: placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, and digoxin. This was done to enhance combinability of the data given the known relative ineffectiveness of these agents for acute conversion of AF (Cobbe, 1997). As will be discussed later, our review of the literature supports this combination.

One trial (Guo, Ellenbogen, Wood et al., 1996) is presented in the table for completeness but is not included in later synthesis because 100 percent of subjects had atrial flutter.

For ease of examining this evidence, we group the results. First, we present the evidence comparing each major antiarrhythmic agent to control treatment. It should be noted that the bulk of evidence for any individual agent exists in this comparison. Second, we present the evidence for each individual major antiarrhythmic agent separately. Third, we present the evidence for miscellaneous comparisons and for use of direct current cardioversion in conjunction with pharmacological conversion.

The evidence on clinical predictors of success in pharmacological conversion was too sparse and disparate to be meaningfully summarized or presented in evidence tables.

A. Antiarrhythmic agents versus control treatment

In brief overview, the conversion success rates for the following major antiarrhythmic agents all showed a relative benefit of the various agents compared with control treatment: quinidine, flecainide, propafenone, amiodarone, and ibutilide/dofetilide. Notably, no trials were identified that evaluated procainamide versus control treatment. The data are equivocal on any benefit of disopyramide over control treatment. The one antiarrhythmic agent that is not supported for use over control treatment is sotalol. This information is displayed graphically in Figure 1, which shows the absolute rates for each trial of the major antiarrhythmic agents. The magnitude of the difference between each agent and control treatment varied and, at least in some studies, is likely a result of the use of subjects with high spontaneous conversion rates due to underlying paroxysmal AF. Almost all studies that had control group conversion rates greater than 50 percent described their subjects as one of the following: "recent onset" AF, paroxysmal AF, or with a duration of AF less than 10 days. Such definitions may reflect a disease different from persistent AF. The one exception in this group is a relatively unusual study by Cowan, Gardiner, Reid et al. (1986). The subjects in this trial were all patients in the intensive care unit for proven or suspected myocardial infarction. Because short, self-terminating periods of AF can be seen with myocardial infarction and because 76 percent of the subjects were eventually proven to have suffered a myocardial infarction, it is difficult to determine the similarity of these subjects to ones in other trials. As mentioned above, one small trial evaluated sotalol (Singh, Saini, DiMarco et al., 1991) and showed a 12 percent lower conversion success rate with sotalol versus placebo. These findings are in line with a recent review by Cobbe in the European Heart Journal (1997), although that review did not look at the newer agents of ibutilide/dofetilide.

B. Individual antiarrhythmic agents versus all comparison groups

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   Figure 2. Proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion


Notes:
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

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   Figure 9. Proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion


Notes:
* Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
** Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

To provide clinicians with a sense of the relative efficacy for each of the major antiarrhythmic agents and to display the absolute rates, we have chosen to graphically summarize the evidence tables for each major agent in Figures 2 to 9. These figures evaluate quinidine, procainamide, disopyramide, flecainide, propafenone, amiodarone, sotalol, and ibutilide and dofetilide. The majority of trials involving a comparison between two agents with high conversion rates for both treatment arms describe their subjects in terms suggestive of paroxysmal AF. This use of subjects with paroxysmal AF versus persistent AF may explain some of the observed differences in absolute rates shown in the figures.

As these tables and figures illustrate, not all possible treatment comparisons had published randomized clinical trials. We note these in the following discussion. In particular, the data were very sparse with respect to procainamide and disopyramide. The newer agents of ibutilide and dofetilide have had randomized clinical trials that compare the agents only to placebo administration.

Quinidine

For quinidine, Figure 2 summarizes all the identified trials on conversion of AF and specifies the comparison groups used. In general, the data are equivocal with respect to the comparison of quinidine with propafenone and do not support any benefit of using quinidine over amiodarone. The evidence does suggest that quinidine is more efficacious than sotalol. In addition, conversion rates in the quinidine groups were higher than the rates in the control treatment groups. Notably absent is any comparison of quinidine versus flecainide because no such randomized clinical trials were identified.

Procainamide and Disopyramide

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   Figure 3. Proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion


Notes:
**Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

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   Figure 4. Proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion


Notes:
* Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
** vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

Figures 3 and 4 display the absolute rates for studies involving procainamide and disopyramide, respectively. In each case, only one trial was identified for each in terms of conversion of AF. These data do not support the benefit of procainamide over flecainide, and they are equivocal on any benefit of disopyramide over control treatment for conversion of AF.

Flecainide

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   Figure 5. Proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion


Notes:
* Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, Verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
** Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

The data for flecainide are shown in Figure 5. Overall, these trials indicate that flecainide is more efficacious than procainamide, propafenone, and the control treatments. The data are equivocal for the comparison of flecainide versus amiodarone. As mentioned before, we did not identify any randomized trials comparing flecainide and quinidine. In addition, we did not identify any trials comparing flecainide and sotalol.

Propafenone

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   Figure 6. Proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion


Notes:
* Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
** Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

Figure 6 shows the absolute rates for all trials involving propafenone. The data are equivocal in terms of propafenone versus quinidine, and they do not suggest a benefit of using propafenone compared with flecainide. However, the data do indicate an advantage in efficacy of propafenone as opposed to amiodarone and control treatments for acute conversion of AF. No trials were identified that addressed propafenone versus sotalol for conversion of AF.

Amiodarone

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   Figure 7. Proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion


Notes:
* Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
** Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

With respect to amiodarone, as shown in Figure 7, the absolute rates suggest a benefit of amiodarone as opposed to quinidine and control treatments. The data are equivocal in regard to amiodarone versus flecainide, and they do not indicate an advantage of amiodarone as compared with propafenone for acute conversion. No trials were identified addressing amiodarone versus sotalol.

Sotalol

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   Figure 8. Proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion


Notes:
* Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
** Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

Figure 8 displays the data for trials using sotalol. This antiarrhythmic agent had three identified trials, and all used the comparison group of either quinidine or control treatment. Despite the limited number of trials, the data do not suggest an advantage of sotalol over either quinidine or control treatment for conversion of AF.

Ibutilide/dofetilide

Figure 9 shows the absolute rates for studies evaluating ibutilide/dofetilide. As mentioned, the only randomized trials identified all used control treatment comparison arms. These data uniformly indicate a benefit of ibutilide/dofetilide over control treatment for conversion of AF. Of note for this presentation of the evidence, one of the two studies evaluating ibutilide was completed for dose-finding purposes. Based on reviewing other published literature on ibutilide, the lowest dose arm in this trial of 0.005 mg/kg likely represents a sub-therapeutic dose. We therefore did not include the data from this arm of the trial when generating Figure 9 because this would have biased the study against finding ibutilide efficacious.

C. Miscellaneous antiarrhythmic agents

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   Figure 10. Proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion


Notes:
* Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
** Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful pharmacological conversion
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

In addition to these major antiarrhythmic agents, we identified several randomized trials using unusual agent combinations, uncommon agents, or older agents now known to be relatively ineffective for conversion of AF. Figure 10 displays the absolute rates for all of the studies that we term "miscellaneous" trials. Several key points are shown by these data. First, adding verapamil to quinidine therapy appears to improve conversion success relative to digoxin and quinidine. Unfortunately, no trials simply compared verapamil to digoxin to help answer the question of whether verapamil is efficacious alone or only when given in conjunction with quinidine. Second, use of the beta-blocking agent practolol-in conjunction with quinidine-or timolol did not show any superiority over placebo. Third, the relatively new agents of pilsicainide and pirmenol seem to show enhanced efficacy relative to control treatment, while the data on cibenzoline are equivocal relative to flecainide. Fourth, the data on using magnesium versus control treatment are equivocal. Fifth, the one trial evaluating intravenous flecainide versus oral flecainide for acute conversion of AF had equivocal results. Sixth, all comparisons of digoxin versus placebo show no apparent benefit of digoxin for acute conversion of AF. Comparably, a head-to-head match of verapamil and diltiazem showed very low conversion rates for both arms. These last comparisons of digoxin, verapamil, and diltiazem all support our use of these agents, in addition to placebo arms, as control treatment arms for data synthesis purposes.

D. Individual antiarrhythmic agents in conjunction with direct current cardioversion

With respect to antiarrhythmic agent use for conversion in conjunction with direct current cardioversion, the reported rates for successful conversion of AF and number of trials were as follows:

Quinidine73--100%(n = 5)
Propafenone75--84%(n = 3)
Sotalol50--91%(n = 3)
Control treatment60--96%(n = 7)

These incidence rates reflect a strategy of the sequential use of pharmacological therapy alone, then in conjunction with direct current cardioversion. In terms of a relative conversion rate as compared with a control treatment group that received direct current cardioversion without use of an antiarrhythmic agent, these studies do not suggest a benefit for quinidine, propafenone, or sotalol in conjunction with direct current cardioversion. Two trials evaluating direct current cardioversion in conjunction with quinidine versus sotalol do indicate a benefit of quinidine over sotalol. This benefit may reflect a benefit at the level of pharmacological conversion alone given the previously described data that support use of quinidine over sotalol for pharmacological conversion of AF. Figure 11 displays the data for all these trials involving pharmacological and electrical cardioversion of AF.

Meta-analysis for acute conversion of AF

In the interest of presenting our meta-analysis results for conversion of AF consistent with the evidence table discussion, we have grouped the data into tables similar to the discussed figures displaying absolute rates. Overall, our analysis deals primarily with the calculated odds ratio for each comparison. In order to present evidence usable to the reader, our final Summary and Conclusions (Efficacy of Antiarrhythmic Agents) of the evidence also reports the important comparisons in terms of the number of patients needed to be treated by one agent in order to see a benefit compared with the alternative treatment. Comparable to the preceding section on the evidence tables and figures of absolute rates, we present the results of our mathematical pooling of the data in the following order: antiarrhythmic agents compared with control treatment, each individual agent versus all comparison groups, miscellaneous comparisons, and use of direct current cardioversion in conjunction with pharmacological conversion.

Realizing it is difficult to categorize the strength of evidence, we felt it was important to facilitate interpretation of the odds ratio (OR). The concept of "strength of evidence" depends on the estimated magnitude of effect, the precision of that estimate, and our confidence that the true effect is different from zero. Quantitatively, all of these dimensions are captured by the point estimate and confidence interval, but it may still be difficult for all readers to interpret results presented only in that fashion. Therefore, we wanted to provide verbal descriptors of the strength of evidence. For the evidence on conversion, an OR greater than 1.0 represents a higher odds of conversion compared with the comparison group. We chose the following categorization of strength of evidence by noting the placement of the point estimate and the width of the confidence interval (CI) surrounding it:

  • Strong evidence of efficacy: OR > 1.0, 99 percent CI does not include 1.0 (p < 0.01).

  • Moderate evidence of efficacy: OR > 1.0, 95 percent CI does not include 1.0, but 99 percent CI includes 1.0 (0.01 < p <0.05).

  • Suggestive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI includes 1.0 in the lower tail (0.05< p <0.2 to 0.3) and the OR is in a clinically meaningful range.

  • Inconclusive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI widely distributed around 1.0.

  • Strong evidence of lack of efficacy: OR near 1.0, 95 percent CI is narrow.

When the point estimate was less than 1.0, we termed this negative efficacy and used the same categorization of strong, moderate, and suggestive evidence based on the CI.

In some cases, the previous categorizations did not completely capture some element of the result that was important for interpretation, particularly in cases with large point estimates and/or very wide confidence intervals. In those instances, we added additional descriptive text. The use of the 99 percent confidence interval (i.e., p = 0.01) as a boundary point for the descriptor "strong" was based on published statistical research on the relationship of p-values to Bayesian evidential summaries (Bayes factors), as well as the recognition that all meta-analyses have some degree of qualitative heterogeneity that is not reflected in the quantitative summaries.

A. Antiarrhythmic agents versus control treatment

With respect to each major antiarrhythmic agent relative to control treatment for acute conversion of AF, the meta-analysis results are displayed in Figure 12. The bulk of evidence behind any individual antiarrhythmic agent occurred in comparison to control treatment. Overall, there is strong evidence of efficacy for the following agents compared with control treatment: flecainide, propafenone, and ibutilide/dofetilide. There is moderate evidence of efficacy for quinidine in regard to conversion of AF. The data suggest efficacy for both disopyramide and amiodarone compared with control treatment and suggest negative efficacy for sotalol compared with control treatment.

In more detail, the strongest evidence of efficacy relative to control treatment exists for flecainide and ibutilide/dofetilide in acute conversion of AF. The summary odds ratio for flecainide is 24.7 (CI 9.0 to 68.3) based on four trials; and for ibutilide/dofetilide the ratio is 29.1 (CI 9.8 to 86.1) based on three trials. Both point estimates are consistent with a large treatment effect size. One non-English-language article (Kondili, Kastrati, and Popa, 1990) with an English abstract supports the finding of flecainide having significantly better efficacy than control treatment.

Although they are both relatively new Class III agents, we thought it would be helpful to look at least briefly at the efficacy of ibutilide and dofetilide separately. Combining the two ibutilide studies, the data (OR 31.8, CI 9.9 to 102.8) remain relatively unchanged from the combined drug treatment estimate. Looking at the one trial on dofetilide, the treatment effect overall (OR 17.0, CI 1.0 to 296.1) is suggestive of efficacy of dofetilide compared with control treatment. Moreover, looking only at the high dofetilide dose arm (8 ´g/kg), because a clear dosage recommendation does not exist yet for dofetilide, the treatment effect (OR 28.3, CI 1.6 to 513.0) is comparable to that of ibutilide alone and to the combined ibutilide/dofetilide treatment effect estimate. The precision of this estimate, however, is substantially less than it is with the combined analysis because of smaller sample size.

Although the magnitude of treatment benefit compared with control treatment is less for propafenone (OR 4.6, CI 2.6 to 8.2), our meta-analysis yielded strong evidence of efficacy for conversion of AF for this agent. Though smaller than the effect size for flecainide and ibutilide/dofetilide, the evidence for propafenone is consistent with a fairly large effect size. It should be noted that using a fixed-effects model, this meta-analysis had significant quantitative heterogeneity between the studies that were pooled, making the validity of the summary data questionable. We, therefore, performed this mathematical pooling using a random-effects model. Both modeling results were consistent with strong evidence in favor of propafenone for conversion of AF. In particular, our analysis reveals that the heterogeneity of the results exists primarily among the four trials using intravenous propafenone. Although the point estimates of three of these trials suggest a moderate benefit with odds ratios of 2.0 to 6.0, the fourth trial suggests a substantial benefit with an odds ratio of 20.9. Overall, all four studies are consistent with a benefit of intravenous propafenone versus control treatment, and when pooled with the studies evaluating oral propafenone, strong evidence is shown of efficacy for using propafenone versus control treatment for acute conversion of AF. A non¡English-language article (Kondili, Kastrati, and Popa, 1990) found a higher, but not statistically significant, conversion rate for propafenone compared with control treatment.

The data on quinidine reflects a combination of three trials with a pooled odds ratio of 2.9 (CI 1.2 to 7.0), consistent with moderate evidence of efficacy for quinidine as opposed to control treatment. A non-English-language article by Luciardi (Luciardi, Berman, Santana et al., 1996) supports this by finding quinidine statistically more efficacious than control treatment. We should note that the categorization of evidence for quinidine as moderate is based on the fact that the 99 percent confidence interval for the point estimate includes unity (OR 2.9, 99 percent CI 0.9 to 9.2). The overall estimated effect size of quinidine treatment is modest.

The summary data for amiodarone (OR 5.7, CI 1.0 to 33.4) are consistent with suggestive evidence of efficacy for conversion compared with control treatment. The estimated effect size is fairly large. Similar to the situation with propafenone, this data pooling had significant quantitative heterogeneity between the included studies when using a fixed-effects model. We therefore used a random-effects model for this mathematical data pooling. Specifically, in the three trials evaluating the use of amiodarone versus control treatment, all of the point estimates are consistent with a benefit of amiodarone. Two trials suggest a moderate advantage with odds ratios of 1.4 and 4.9. The third trial, however, is compatible with a substantial benefit, having an odds ratio of 69.0. Overall, the mathematical pooling of all trials evaluating amiodarone provides suggestive evidence of an advantage of amiodarone versus control treatment for acute conversion of AF. It should be noted that unlike the propafenone comparison, the results of our fixed-effects and random-effects modeling differed for amiodarone. The fixed-effects model yielded strong evidence in favor of amiodarone relative to control treatment. The random-effects model yielded only suggestive evidence in favor of amiodarone. Of all comparisons for acute conversion of AF, amiodarone compared with control treatment is the most problematic from a qualitative standpoint. This is likely a result of two issues related to the specific trials being combined. First, all three trials were relatively small (Noc, Stajer, and Horvat, 1990; Cowan, Gardiner, Reid et al., 1986; Hou, Chang, Chen et al., 1995). Second, one trial (Cowan, Gardiner, Reid et al., 1986) involved all subjects who were in an intensive care unit for proven or suspected myocardial infarction. Because short, self-terminating periods of AF can be seen with myocardial infarction and because 76 percent of the subjects were eventually proven to have suffered a myocardial infarction, it is difficult to determine the similarity of these subjects to those in other trials. Therefore, the comparison of amiodarone to control treatment for acute conversion has the greatest qualitative, as well as quantitative, heterogeneity of all comparisons for acute conversion of AF.

The summary data for disopyramide and sotalol reflect the results of only one trial each, and the confidence intervals around the estimates include unity. These data, therefore, are suggestive of efficacy for disopyramide versus control treatment (OR 7.0, CI 0.3 to 153.0), although the precision of this estimate is poor. The evidence is suggestive of negative efficacy of sotalol compared with control treatment (OR 0.4, CI 0.0 to 3.0), although the precision of this estimate is also poor.

Because some antiarrhythmic agents are commonly considered together based on the Vaughan-Williams classification (1984), we grouped the data for Class Ia and Class Ic agents, in comparison to control treatment, together for one meta-analysis. The combined Ia agents are quinidine and disopyramide. The combined Ic agents are flecainide and propafenone. We did not think that any combination of the Class III agents (amiodarone, sotalol, ibutilide/dofetilide) was clinically relevant. Not surprisingly, these meta-analysis results show strong evidence of efficacy of both Class Ia (OR 3.2, CI 1.4 to 7.3) and Class Ic (OR 6.2, CI 3.5 to 10.8) agents relative to control treatment for acute conversion of AF. These results are also shown in Figure 12. Given the known quantitative heterogeneity of the propafenone versus control treatment studies, we performed the mathematical pooling of data for the Class Ic agents using a random-effects model.

B. Individual antiarrhythmic agents versus all comparison groups
Quinidine

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   Figure 13. Meta-analysis on pharmacological conversion


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
* Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data are available on request (Supplemental Figures, 1999)

The results of the meta-analysis of evidence regarding the use of quinidine for acute conversion of AF are shown in Figure 13. The data showing moderate evidence of efficacy relative to control treatment have been illustrated already in Figure 12. The one identified non-English article on quinidine versus control treatment (Luciardi, Berman, Santana et al., 1996) also supports this finding. Evidence is sparse for the comparison of quinidine to other antiarrhythmic agents. The data for quinidine versus propafenone and quinidine versus amiodarone each reflect only one trial. As discussed in the section on the evidence tables, these data are inconclusive in terms of quinidine compared with propafenone (OR 0.4, CI 0.1 to 2.0). There is moderate evidence of negative efficacy for quinidine as opposed to amiodarone (OR 0.2, CI 0.1 to 0.9), with potentially a fairly large effect size based on the point estimate. The evidence behind the comparison of quinidine and sotalol reflects a pooling of two trials. This summary is consistent with strong evidence of efficacy and a fairly large effect size for quinidine compared with sotalol (OR 5.8, CI 2.4 to 14.2) for acute conversion of AF. In reviewing non-English-language articles, we found two that evaluated quinidine compared with other antiarrhythmic agents. The first one (César, Serrano, Pamplona et al., 1994) found quinidine to be significantly more efficacious than amiodarone or procainamide. The second article (Satullo, Arrigo, Cavallaro et al., 1996) found no difference in conversion rates between quinidine and propafenone.

Procainamide and disopyramide

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   Figure 14. Meta-analysis on pharmacological conversion


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
Individual study data available on request

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   Figure 15. Meta-analysis on pharmacological conversion


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

The evidence shown in Figures 14 and 15, for procainamide and disopyramide respectively, is limited to one trial each. As reviewed earlier with Figure 12, these data on acute conversion of AF give strong evidence of negative efficacy of procainamide compared with flecainide (OR 0.1, CI 0.0 to 0.5) and suggestive evidence of efficacy of disopyramide over control treatment (OR 7.0, CI 0.3 to 153.0), although the precision for the estimate is poor. A non-English article (César, Serrano, Pamplona et al., 1994) did not find procainamide more efficacious than quinidine. We were not able to determine the results of comparing procainamide and amiodarone in this trial (César, Serrano, Pamplona et al., 1994).

Flecainide

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   Figure 16. Meta-analysis on pharmacological conversion


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

Figure 16 summarizes the data for use of flecainide in acute conversion of AF. The summary odds ratio for flecainide is consistent with strong evidence of efficacy (OR 24.7, CI 9.0 to 68.3) relative to control treatment. The non-English article by Kondili (1990) supports this finding. In addition, the summary evidence is consistent with a large effect size. As discussed above, the evidence consists of only one trial showing strong evidence and a fairly large effect size of flecainide over procainamide (OR 7.4, CI 1.9 to 28.3). There is also strong evidence of an advantage of efficacy and a fairly large effect size for flecainide compared with propafenone (OR 5.1, CI 2.3 to 11.0), based on three trials. The comparison of flecainide and amiodarone has only one trial with inconclusive evidence for efficacy of flecainide relative to amiodarone (OR 2.5, CI 0.2 to 29.6) for conversion of AF.

Propafenone

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   Figure 17. Meta-analysis on pharmacological conversion


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Confidence interal using random-effects model
Individual study data available on request

The bulk of evidence behind propafenone is relative to control treatment and has been extensively discussed in the previous section on antiarrhythmic agents versus control treatment. Overall, the pooled data are consistent with strong evidence of efficacy of propafenone (OR 4.6, CI 2.6 to 8.2) relative to control treatment, with a fairly large effect size for acute conversion of AF. This is shown in Figure 17. We should note that one non-English article (Kondili, Kastrati, and Popa, 1990) found a higher, but not statistically significant, conversion rate for propafenone compared with control treatment. The evidence for propafenone versus quinidine consists of only one inconclusive trial (OR 2.3, CI 0.5 to 10.1). This is supported by a non-English-language article (Satullo, Arrigo, Cavallaro et al., 1996). The comparison of propafenone and flecainide has three trials with strong evidence of negative efficacy of propafenone as opposed to flecainide (OR 0.2, CI 0.1 to 0.4). This is supported by the non-English article by Kondili (1990). The comparison of propafenone and amiodarone involves only one trial with strong evidence of efficacy and a potentially large effect size for propafenone compared with amiodarone (OR 13.0, CI 2.1 to 79.6) for acute conversion of AF. Unfortunately, the precision of this estimate is poor. One non-English-language article (Treglia, Alfano, and Rossini, 1994) found no difference in conversion rates between propafenone and amiodarone.

Amiodarone

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   Figure 18. Meta-analysis on pharmacological conversion


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Confidence interval using random-effects model
Individual study data available on request

The evidence for amiodarone versus control treatment for acute conversion of AF has been discussed and is suggestive of efficacy (OR 5.7, CI 1.0 to 33.4). This is shown in Figure 18. It should be again noted that this comparison is the most problematic in the area of acute conversion because of the substantial qualitative and quantitative heterogeneity between the combined studies. The comparisons of amiodarone with quinidine, flecainide, and propafenone all involve only one trial each. These trials give moderate evidence of efficacy of amiodarone instead of quinidine (OR 4.5, CI 1.2 to 17.4), are inconclusive for amiodarone relative to flecainide (OR 0.4, CI 0.0 to 4.9), and give strong evidence of negative efficacy of amiodarone compared with propafenone (OR 0.1, CI 0.0 to 0.5), although the precision of this potentially large effect size is poor. Two non-English articles evaluated amiodarone. The first (César, Serrano, Pamplona et al., 1994) did not find amiodarone more efficacious than quinidine. The second (Treglia, Alfano, and Rossini, 1994) found no difference in conversion rates between amiodarone and propafenone.

Sotalol

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   Figure 19. Meta-analysis on pharmacological conversion


Notes:
Vertical bars and point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

The antiarrhythmic agent sotalol has relatively few trials evaluating efficacy. The summary data, shown in Figure 19, for sotalol versus control treatment, based on only one trial, are suggestive of negative efficacy (OR 0.4, CI 0.0 to 3.0). The evidence for sotalol compared with quinidine consists of two trials. This result gives strong evidence of negative efficacy of sotalol as opposed to quinidine for acute conversion (OR 0.2, CI 0.1 to 0.4).

Ibutilide/dofetilide

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   Figure 20. Meta-analysis on pharmacological conversion


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

As for the major antiarrhythmic agents for acute conversion of AF, the evidence for ibutilide/dofetilide consists only of trials with comparison groups of control treatment and is shown in Figure 20. The summary evidence shows strong evidence of efficacy for ibutilide/dofetilide versus control treatment (OR 29.1, CI 9.8 to 86.1). Furthermore, the evidence is consistent with a large treatment effect. As discussed earlier, one trial on ibutilide (Ellenbogen, Stambler, Wood et al., 1996) was primarily a dose-finding study. Based on our review of the literature, we excluded the lowest dose arm of ibutilide (0.005 mg/kg) in this study because it likely represents an underdosage of the agent. A subgroup analysis of the therapeutically dosed ibutilide and dofetilide arms versus this sub-therapeutic arm shows a significant benefit of the therapeutic dose (OR 5.1, CI 1.9 to 13.9). When only the two ibutilide studies are pooled, the data remain consistent with strong evidence of ibutilide benefit relative to control treatment (OR 31.8, CI 9.9 to 102.8). For dofetilide, there is strong evidence in support of the high dose arm (0.008 mg/kg) relative to control treatment (OR 28.3, CI 1.6 to 513.0) and suggestive evidence for the low dose arm (0.004 mg/kg) relative to control treatment (OR 9.6, CI 0.5 to 187.0). The wide confidence intervals reflect the paucity of data on dofetilide.

C. Miscellaneous antiarrhythmic agents

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   Figure 21. Meta-analysis on pharmacological conversion


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

Figure 21 shows the meta-analysis results for all the miscellaneous antiarrhythmic trials. Nine of these ten comparisons involve only one trial. The other comparison, of digoxin versus placebo, incorporates three trials. In brief overview, the only trials with strong evidence of efficacy are as follows: pilsicainide is beneficial relative to control treatment (OR 8.7, CI 2.3 to 33.2) with a fairly large effect size, and pirmenol is beneficial relative to control treatment (OR 8.5, CI 1.9 to 38.8) with a fairly large effect size. There is moderate evidence of efficacy for quinidine with verapamil compared with quinidine with digoxin (OR 6.4, CI 1.4 to 28.4). The pooling of three studies evaluating digoxin versus placebo (OR 1.3, CI 0.8 to 2.0) gives strong evidence of lack of efficacy of digoxin and supports our use of digoxin as a control treatment for other comparison purposes.

D. Individual antiarrhythmic agents in conjunction with direct current cardioversion

Figure 22 represents the meta-analysis of trials evaluating pharmacological conversion of AF in conjunction with direct current cardioversion. The summary comparison of quinidine versus control treatment for use in conjunction with direct current cardioversion consists of three trials and is strong evidence of lack of efficacy (OR 0.9, CI 0.5 to 1.8). Comparably, the summary comparison of propafenone versus control treatment for use in conjunction with direct current cardioversion consists of three trials and is strong evidence of lack of efficacy (OR 1.2, CI 0.7 to 2.2). The comparison of sotalol versus placebo treatment for use in conjunction with direct current cardioversion involves only one trial and is inconclusive evidence of efficacy (OR 0.7, CI 0.2 to 3.0). With respect to the use of direct current cardioversion, two trials evaluated quinidine versus sotalol. The pooled results of these trials give moderate evidence of efficacy of quinidine compared with sotalol (OR 4.0, CI 1.1 to 15.0), with potentially a fairly large effect size when used in conjunction with direct current cardioversion for AF. As mentioned previously, this result may reflect the apparent benefit of quinidine over sotalol for pharmacological conversion alone, as supported by other evidence in this review.

Subgroup analysis for acute conversion of AF (Appendix P)

Because several important factors were felt a priori to be potential confounders, we examined the following factors in subgroup analysis: type of control treatment utilized (placebo versus verapamil/diltiazem versus digoxin), route of antiarrhythmic administration (intravenous versus oral), followup time for conversion outcome of less than 24 hours versus greater than or equal to 24 hours, duration of AF less than or equal to 2 weeks versus greater than 2 weeks, mean left-atrial size less than or equal to 4.0 centimeters versus greater than 4.0 centimeters, and inclusion of subjects with atrial flutter (no subjects versus some subjects with atrial flutter). It should be noted that the ability of a systematic literature review to detect subgroup differences is limited because the data are not at the level of each individual study subject but rather at the level of the overall study. For example, if one trial had a mean left-atrial size for all subjects of 3.7 centimeters, that trial as a whole was taken as evidence for conversion with left-atrial size less than or equal to 4.0 centimeters. We did not have enough data from the publications to separate subjects within any given trial for analysis of subgroups. In addition, incomplete information and inconsistent definitions of subgroups hampered our subgroup analyses.

Starting with type of control treatment used (placebo versus verapamil/diltiazem versus digoxin), we found no significant differences between results for the various control treatments. In particular, this analysis was relevant to the following antiarrhythmic agents: quinidine, flecainide, propafenone, amiodarone, and ibutilide/dofetilide. In each of these cases, there were no important differences in the magnitude of treatment effect based on which comparison group was used.

Comparably, our subgroup analysis evaluating route of antiarrhythmic agent administration revealed no important differences. This subgroup analysis applied only to the agents of flecainide and propafenone. Furthermore, two trials specifically addressed this issue. For flecainide, the study by Crijns, van Wijk, van Gilst et al. (1988) involved two treatment arms: intravenous flecainide versus oral flecainide. The result was equivocal for any differences between the two regimens, as is shown in Figure 10. For propafenone, the trial by Boriani, Capucci, Lenzi et al. (1995) involved three treatment arms: intravenous propafenone, oral propafenone, and placebo. Analysis of the conversion outcome numbers for the first two arms yields no evidence for any signifi¡cant difference between the two administration routes for propafenone, as is shown in Evidence Table 3.

Next we examined the subgrouping of followup time for conversion outcome of less than 24 hours versus greater than or equal to 24 hours. We felt that this analysis was important to detect any antiarrhythmic agent that had greater efficacy with use for greater than or equal to 24 hours as opposed to relatively rapid efficacy seen in less than 24 hours. In general, the majority of comparisons did not have enough data for performing this analysis. Furthermore, when the analysis was possible, all comparisons did not show any important difference in treatment effect based on goal followup time. The summary of this meta-analysis and supplemental figures are available upon request (Supplemental Figures, 1999).

Our subgroup analysis on duration of AF less than or equal to 2 weeks versus greater than 2 weeks was somewhat problematic. Although we felt this factor was an important potential confounder with respect to acute conversion of AF, our chosen cut point of 2 weeks was not the chosen cut point for the majority of trials. Therefore, we broadened our definition to read "any study that could have had subjects with a duration greater than 2 weeks." This rewording of our initial definition allowed us to subgroup trials with alternative cut points for duration of AF (e.g., greater than 3 days). As with the subgroup analysis regarding goal followup time, the majority of trials did not have enough data for performing this analysis. When the analysis was possible, only two comparisons had any significant difference in treatment effect based on duration of AF: quinidine versus control treatment and flecainide versus control treatment. In the case of quinidine, this analysis revealed that while the overall evidence behind quinidine compared with control treatment gives moderate evidence in favor of quinidine (OR 2.9, CI 1.2 to 7.0), the estimated treatment effect is inconclusive if the duration of AF is less than or equal to 2 weeks (OR 1.2, CI 0.4 to 4.2). The estimated treatment effect of quinidine compared with control treatment for subjects with a duration of AF greater than 2 weeks persists as moderate evidence of efficacy of quinidine (OR 5.4, CI 1.0 to 28.8). This subgroup analysis, therefore, suggests that the majority of quinidine efficacy compared with control treatment for acute conversion of AF may be in subjects with persistent AF. It should be noted, however, that this subgroup analysis had only one trial in each grouping, with 50 to 60 subjects in each trial. In regard to flecainide compared with control treatment, our overall analysis showed strong evidence of efficacy of flecainide compared with control treatment for acute conversion of AF (OR 24.7, CI 9.0 to 68.3). The subgroup analysis based on duration of AF separates this support of flecainide use. While there clearly continues to be strong evidence of efficacy of flecainide for subjects with a duration less than or equal to 2 weeks (OR 10.8, CI 2.1 to 56.5), the evidence and estimated treatment effect are greater for subjects with duration of AF greater than 2 weeks (OR 66.5, CI 13.8 to 321.6). This conclusion is based on a total of three trials with 141 subjects in all trials. This subgroup analysis with respect to amiodarone is difficult to evaluate because of the small number of subjects in each arm and the especially wide confidence intervals. The summary of this meta-analysis and supplemental figures are available upon request (Supplemental Figures, 1999).

Our subgroup analyses regarding mean left-atrial size less than or equal to 4.0 centimeters versus greater than 4.0 centimeters and regarding inclusion of subjects with atrial flutter were limited based on the information provided in the identified clinical trials. Of the few trials with sufficient information for performing these analyses, no significant treatment effect differences were noted based on mean left-atrial size or inclusion of subjects with atrial flutter. Please see the section on Echocardiography at the end of this chapter for a discussion of the individual trials that give results based on left-atrial size. Individual study data are available upon request (Supplemental Figures, 1999).

Maintenance of Sinus Rhythm in AF
Evidence tables for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF

Evidence Table 5 shows reported maintenance of sinus rhythm rates for AF and goal followup time for all of the identified randomized clinical trials. For purposes of this review, successful maintenance of sinus rhythm is defined as no recurrences of AF. It is important to note that for a significant proportion of trials, the overall study size (N) is considerably larger than the sum of the treatment arms. Two factors account for this. First, because the outcome of maintenance of sinus rhythm is time dependent, these studies were subject to losses to followup. Unfortunately, relatively few trials attempted to account for this by some form of life-table analysis. Therefore, the resultant rates for maintenance of sinus rhythm often are based on smaller denominators than the original sample size. For the majority of trials, we were unable to account for all subjects in order to correct this, and therefore we chose to present the rates as reported in the article. The reported rates for adverse events, however, varied from trial to trial, from including all subjects enrolled to including only subjects felt to be "valuable" in the denominator. Second, about one-third of the trials actually looked at both outcomes of acute conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm for AF. These trials, therefore, had fewer subjects followed for the maintenance of sinus rhythm phase because only those with successful conversion were eligible. A summary of the crude rates for successful maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF for the major antiarrhythmic agents follows:

Quinidine11--91%(n = 11)
Disopyramide54--72%(n = 4)
Flecainide24--72%(n = 7)
Propafenone27--67%(n = 8)
Amiodarone79--92%(n = 2)
Sotalol35--76%(n = 5)
Control treatment0--90%(n = 16)

The majority of trials had mean followup times of 3 to 12 months. Studies with an overall size (N) considerably smaller than the sum of treatment arms represent studies employing a crossover design. As mentioned above, interpretation of these numbers must be done in light of study design characteristics, in particular the length of followup for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF.

One trial (Feld, Nademanee, Noll et al., 1989) is presented in the table for completeness but is not included in later data synthesis because 100 percent of the subjects had atrial flutter.

For ease of examining this evidence, we group the results. First, we present the evidence comparing each major antiarrhythmic agent to control treatment. It should be noted that the bulk of evidence for any individual agent exists in this comparison. Second, we present the evidence for each individual major antiarrhythmic agent separately. Third, we present the evidence for miscellaneous comparisons.

A. Antiarrhythmic agents versus control treatment

Evaluation of the relative efficacy for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF compared with control treatment suggests efficacy for all of the following antiarrhythmic agents: quinidine, disopyramide, flecainide, propafenone, and sotalol. This is graphically displayed in Figure 23. No data were identified regarding amiodarone compared with control treatment for maintenance of sinus rhythm. In comparison with the Cobbe review from 1997 (Cobbe, 1997), we have two areas of difference. First, we identified two randomized clinical trials of disopyramide versus placebo. Both of these trials indicate a relative benefit of diso¡pyramide for maintenance of sinus rhythm. Second, our review identified no trials evaluating amiodarone compared with control treatment, whereas Cobbe (1997) reported positive efficacy of amiodarone for maintenance of sinus rhythm. This last difference may be because we used only randomized clinical trials for these evidence tables.

B. Individual antiarrhythmic agents versus all comparison groups

As with the rates for successful conversion, we have chosen to summarize the evidence tables on maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF for each major antiarrhythmic agent graphically in order to show more easily the relative efficacy for each of the major antiarrhythmic agents and in order to display the absolute rates.

Quinidine

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   Figure 24. Proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

The evidence regarding quinidine is shown in Figure 24. In general, these data suggest lack of efficacy of quinidine compared with propafenone for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF. The data are equivocal for the comparisons of quinidine with flecainide, amiodarone, and sotalol. The only apparent relative benefit of quinidine is in comparison to control treatment.

Disopyramide

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   Figure 25. Proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

As with the conversion data, only a handful of trials evaluated disopyramide. These are summarized in Figure 25. The evidence is equivocal for disopyramide compared with propafenone and shows a lack of efficacy of disopyramide compared with amiodarone. This last comparison is based on interim results (Martin, Benbow, Leach et al., 1986). Our literature review did not identify the final results of this trial. Comparable to quinidine, the only relative benefit of disopyramide is in comparison with control treatment.

Flecainide

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   Figure 26. Proportion of subjects with successful mainenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

Figure 26 shows the data for maintenance of sinus rhythm with flecainide. In general, the data regarding use of flecainide are equivocal with respect to the comparisons with both quinidine and propafenone. Notably, no identified trials evaluated flecainide relative to amiodarone or sotalol for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF. The only relative benefit supported by the literature for flecainide is in comparison with control treatment for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF.

Propafenone

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   Figure 27. Proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

The evidence on propafenone is displayed in Figure 27. These data show efficacy of propafenone over both quinidine and control treatment for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF. The evidence is equivocal for propafenone compared with disopyramide and flecainide, and for propafenone compared with sotalol. No trials were identified that compared propafenone and amiodarone for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF.

Amiodarone

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   Figure 28. Proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
** Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

Few trials examined the use of amiodarone for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF. These are shown in Figure 28. The data are equivocal for amiodarone compared with quinidine. Efficacy of amiodarone compared with disopyramide is supported by the data, although these are reportedly interim results by the trial (Martin, Benbow, Leach et al., 1986). As previously mentioned, our literature review did not identify the final results of this trial. No trials were identified that evaluated amiodarone relative to flecainide, propafenone, sotalol, or control treatment for maintenance of sinus rhythm.

Sotalol

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   Figure 29. Proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
**Vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of subjects with successful maintenance of sinus rhythm
+ n equals the number of trials evaluating each comparison

The trials using sotalol for maintenance of sinus rhythm are summarized in Figure 29. These data are equivocal for sotalol compared with quinidine and for sotalol compared with propafenone. The only suggested efficacy of sotalol is in comparison with control treatment. Notably absent are any trials comparing sotalol with flecainide or amiodarone.

C. Miscellaneous antiarrhythmic agents

With respect to maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF, we identified three trials using unusual comparison groups or newer agents. These are summarized in Figure 30. Two trials examining flecainide in comparison with cibenzoline both reported equivocal data. A relatively old trial from 1976 (Normand, Legendre, Kahn et al., 1976) looked at two different preparations of quinidine and found a "long-acting" form superior to a "short-acting" form.

Meta-analysis for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF

In the interest of presenting our meta-analysis results for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF consistent with the evidence table discussion, we have grouped the data into tables similar to the figures displaying absolute rates. Overall, our analysis deals primarily with the calculated odds ratio for each comparison. In order to present evidence usable to the reader, our final summary section (Efficacy of Antiarrhythmic Agents) of the evidence also reports the important comparisons in terms of the number of patients needed to be treated by one agent in order to see a benefit compared with the alternative treatment. Comparable to the preceding section on the evidence tables and figures of absolute rates, we present the results of our mathematical pooling of the data in the following order: antiarrhythmic agents compared with control treatment, each individual agent versus all comparison groups, and miscellaneous comparisons.

Of particular note for the outcome of maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF, a small percentage of trials used life-table analysis. The resultant data reported were cumulative percentages of successful maintenance of sinus rhythm over the course of followup. These cumulative percentages are displayed on the figures of absolute rates. However, the publication of such analyses frequently did not provide easily extractable data for incorporation into a meta-analysis. Thus, for our meta-analysis purposes, we applied the cumulative percentages to the initial overall subject number in each trial arm (n) to derive a proportion for inclusion in the meta-analysis. We note in the comments section of Evidence Table 5 when a life-table analysis was done. This note, therefore, also signifies when the above discussion regarding calculation of study proportions for inclusion in the meta-analysis applies.

For the evidence on maintenance of sinus rhythm, an OR greater than 1.0 represents a higher odds of maintenance of sinus rhythm than in the comparison group. As indicated earlier, we chose the following categorization of strength of evidence by noting the placement of the point estimate and the width of the confidence interval (CI) surrounding it:

  • Strong evidence of efficacy: OR > 1.0, 99 percent CI does not include 1.0 (p < 0.01).

  • Moderate evidence of efficacy: OR > 1.0, 95 percent CI does not include 1.0, but 99 percent CI includes 1.0 (0.01 < p < 0.05).

  • Suggestive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI includes 1.0 in the lower tail (0.05 < p < 0.2 to 0.3) and the OR is in a clinically meaningful range.

  • Inconclusive evidence of efficacy: 95 percent CI widely distributed around 1.0.

  • Strong evidence of lack of efficacy: OR near 1.0, 95 percent CI is narrow.

When the point estimate was less than 1.0, we termed this negative efficacy and used the same categorization of strong, moderate, and suggestive evidence based on the CI.

In some situations, the above categorizations did not completely capture some element of the result that was important for interpretation, particularly in cases with large point estimates and/or very wide confidence intervals. In those instances, we added additional descriptive text. The use of the 99 percent confidence interval (i.e., p = 0.01) as a boundary point for the descriptor "strong" was based on published statistical research on the relationship of p-values to Bayesian evidential summaries (Bayes factors), as well as the recognition that all meta-analyses have some degree of qualitative heterogeneity not reflected in the quantitative summaries.

A. Antiarrhythmic agents versus control treatment

The meta-analysis results for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF for each of the major antiarrhythmic agents relative to control treatment are shown in Figure 31. As with the conversion evidence, the bulk of evidence behind any individual antiarrhythmic agent occurred in comparison to control treatment. Overall, in terms of maintenance of sinus rhythm, the following antiarrhythmic agents have strong evidence of efficacy relative to control treatment: quinidine, disopyramide, flecainide, propafenone, and sotalol. There is no evidence for the comparison of amiodarone to control treatment.

In more detail, the evidence behind use of quinidine consisted of four trials with pooled data finding strong evidence of efficacy of using quinidine over control treatment (OR 4.1, CI 2.5 to 6.7) for maintenance of sinus rhythm. The estimated treatment effect size is fairly large. It should be noted that a fifth trial (Rasmussen, Wang, and Fausa, 1981) evaluated quinidine compared with control treatment. This trial did not report data in such a way that it could be incorporated into our meta-analysis. However, the overall finding of the trial was in support of quinidine, consistent with the other evidence.

The data for disopyramide compared with control treatment involved two trials and also had strong evidence of efficacy and a fairly large effect size for disopyramide (OR 3.4, CI 1.6 to 7.1). The comparison of flecainide versus control treatment comprised three trials with strong evidence of efficacy and a fairly large effect size of flecainide compared with control treatment (OR 3.1, CI 1.5 to 6.2). This is supported by a non-English-language article (Carunchio, Fera, Mazza et al., 1995). Comparably, the propafenone relative to control treatment shows strong evidence of efficacy and a fairly large effect size for propafenone (OR 3.7, CI 2.4 to 5.7) based on four trials.

There is strong evidence of efficacy of sotalol versus control treatment (OR 7.1, CI 3.8 to 13.4) for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF. This is supported by a non-English-language article (Carunchio, Fera, Mazza et al., 1995).

Because some antiarrhythmic agents are commonly considered together based on the Vaughan-Williams classification (1984), we have grouped the data for Class Ia and Class Ic agents, in comparison with control treatment, in this meta-analysis. The combined Ia agents are quinidine and disopyramide. The combined Ic agents are flecainide and propafenone. We did not think that any combination of the Class III agents (amiodarone, sotalol) was clinically relevant. Not surprisingly, the results of these meta-analyses show strong evidence of efficacy of both Class Ia (OR 4.2, CI 2.9 to 6.1) and Class Ic (OR 3.5, CI 2.4 to 5.1) agents relative to control treatment for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF. These results are shown in Figure 31.

B. Individual antiarrhythmic agents versus all comparison groups
Quinidine

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   Figure 32. Meta-analysis on maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

As for quinidine for maintenance of sinus rhythm, as shown in Figure 32, the only comparison with strong evidence of efficacy of quinidine is relative to control treatment (OR 4.1, CI 2.5 to 6.7), as discussed previously. The estimated effect size for this comparison is fairly large. The data regarding quinidine compared with flecainide consist of three trials and are inconclusive (OR 0.7, CI 0.4 to 1.2). The comparisons of quinidine versus propafenone and of quinidine versus amiodarone comprise only one clinical trial each. The data give strong evidence of negative efficacy of quinidine compared with propafenone (OR 0.3, CI 0.1 to 0.7), with a fairly large effect size, and are inconclusive for quinidine versus amiodarone (OR 0.9, CI 0.1 to 16.5). Two trials compared quinidine and sotalol for maintenance of sinus rhythm. These resulted in strong evidence of lack of efficacy of quinidine compared with sotalol (OR 0.9, CI 0.5 to 1.5). We should note that one non-English language article (Richiardi, Gaita, Greco et al., 1991) found no difference in rates of maintenance of sinus rhythm between quinidine and propafenone, with greater than 6 months of followup time.

Disopyramide

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   Figure 33. Meta-analysis on maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

Figure 33 depicts the evidence for use of disopyramide for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF. A total of four trials deal with disopyramide. Two of the trials give strong evidence of efficacy of disopyramide relative to control treatment (OR 3.4, CI 1.6 to 7.1), with a fairly large effect size. The third trial is suggestive of efficacy of disopyramide versus propafenone (OR 1.8, CI 0.6 to 5.1), with only a modest effect size. The fourth trial gives moderate evidence of negative efficacy of disopyramide compared with amiodarone (OR 0.3, CI 0.1 to 1.0), with a modest effect size, although this represents only interim results of this trial (Martin, Benbow, Leach et al., 1986). A non-English language article (Villani, Zoletti, Veniani et al., 1992) found significant evidence of lack of efficacy of disopyramide compared with amiodarone, with approximately 12 months of followup time.

Flecainide

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   Figure 34. Meta analysis on maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

The evidence for flecainide in terms of maintenance of sinus rhythm, shown in Figure 34, only gives strong evidence of efficacy relative to use of control treatment (OR 3.1, CI 1.5 to 6.2), based on three trials. Furthermore, the estimated treatment effect size is fairly large. This is supported by a non-English language article (Carunchio, Fera, Mazza et al., 1995). The comparison of flecainide to quinidine (OR 1.4, CI 0.8 to 2.3) is inconclusive, and the comparison of flecainide to propafenone (OR 0.9, CI 0.4 to 2.2) is inconclusive. The non-English language article by Carunchio, Fera, Mazza et al. (1995) found no difference in maintenance of sinus rhythm between flecainide and sotalol, with 12 months of followup time.

Propafenone

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   Figure 35. Meta-analysis on maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

In regard to propafenone, as shown in Figure 35, the meta-analysis shows strong evidence of efficacy and a fairly large effect size of propafenone compared with control treatment (OR 3.7, CI 2.4 to 5.7), based on four trials. Propafenone compared with quinidine (OR 3.6, CI 1.5 to 9.0), based on one trial, has strong evidence of efficacy for propafenone. The evidence is suggestive of negative efficacy of propafenone compared with disopyramide (OR 0.6, CI 0.2 to 1.6), with a moderate effect size, and is also suggestive of negative efficacy of propafenone compared with sotalol (OR 0.7, CI 0.4 to 1.1), with a modest effect size, for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF. The evidence is inconclusive for the comparison of propafenone and flecainide (OR 1.1, CI 0.5 to 2.6). We should note that one non-English language article (Richiardi, Gaita, Greco et al., 1991) found no difference in rates of maintenance of sinus rhythm between propafenone and quinidine, with greater than 6 months of followup time.

Amiodarone

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   Figure 36. Meta-analysis on maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
Individual study data available on request

Figure 36 deals with the meta-analysis regarding amiodarone for maintenance of sinus rhythm. The evidence for amiodarone versus quinidine (OR 1.1, CI 0.1 to 20.0) is inconclusive, based on one trial. The evidence for amiodarone compared with disopyramide, based on interim results of one trial (Martin, Benbow, Leach et al., 1986), is consistent with moderate evidence of efficacy of amiodarone (OR 3.2, CI 1.0 to 9.6). As mentioned, our review of the literature did not identify the final results of this trial. A non-English language article (Villani, Zoletti, Veniani et al., 1992) found significant evidence of efficacy of amiodarone compared with disopyramide for maintenance of sinus rhythm, with approximately 12 months of followup time.

Sotalol

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   Figure 37. Meta-analysis on maintenance of sinus rhythm


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
*Control treatment includes groups receiving placebo, verapamil, diltiazem, or digoxin
Individual study data available on request

The evidence for sotalol in maintenance of sinus rhythm is shown in Figure 37. The evidence regarding sotalol versus control treatment consists of two trials and is consistent with strong evidence of efficacy and a large effect size for sotalol (OR 7.1, CI 3.8 to 13.4). This is supported by a non-English language article (Carunchio, Fera, Mazza et al., 1995). The comparison of sotalol versus quinidine (OR 1.1, CI 0.7 to 2.0) has strong evidence of lack of efficacy. There is, however, suggestive evidence of efficacy of sotalol compared with propafenone (OR 1.6, CI 0.9 to 2.6), with only modest effect size, based on two trials. The non-English language article by Carunchio, Fera, Mazza et al. (1995) found no difference in maintenance of sinus rhythm between flecainide and sotalol, with 12 months of followup time.

C. Miscellaneous antiarrhythmic agents

Figure 38 shows the results for all miscellaneous antiarrhythmic trials with respect to maintenance of sinus rhythm. Two trials compared flecainide to cibenzoline, with inconclusive evidence (OR 1.4, CI 0.5 to 4.0), based on two trials. Four non-English language articles evaluated cibenzoline. In general, these found cibenzoline either more efficacious than quinidine, propafenone, and flecainide or equally as efficacious. The first article (Frances, Luccioni, Delaage et al., 1985) found cibenzoline superior to quinidine for maintenance of sinus rhythm, at 6 months of followup time. The second article (Touboul, Brembilla-Perrot, Scheck et al., 1995) found cibenzoline equally as efficacious as quinidine, with 12 months of followup time. The third study (Lardoux, Maison Blanche, Marchand et al., 1996), with 6 months of followup time, found cibenzoline as efficacious as propafenone. A study by Maison-Blanche, Brembilla-Perrot, Fauchier et al. (1997) found cibenzoline equal in efficacy to flecainide for maintaining sinus rhythm, with 6 months of followup time. The evidence comparing "long-acting" versus "short-acting" quinidine is suggestive of efficacy of the "long-acting" preparation (OR 3.5, CI 0.9 to 13.0).

Subgroup analysis for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF (Appendix Q)

Comparable to the analysis of conversion, several important factors were felt a priori to be potential confounders regarding maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF. We therefore examined the following factors in subgroup analysis: type of control treatment utilized (placebo versus verapamil/diltiazem versus digoxin), followup time for maintenance of sinus rhythm of less than 6 months versus greater than or equal to 6 months, mean left-atrial size less than or equal to 4.0 centimeters versus greater than 4.0 centimeters, and inclusion of subjects with atrial flutter (no subjects versus some subjects with atrial flutter). It should again be noted that the ability of a systematic literature review to detect subgroup differences is limited because the data are not at the level of each individual study subject but rather at the overall study level. For example, if one trial had a mean left-atrial size for all subjects of 3.7 centimeters, that trial as a whole was taken as evidence for maintenance of sinus rhythm with left-atrial size less than or equal to 4.0 centimeters. We did not have enough data from the publications to separate subjects within any given trial for subgroup analysis. In addition, incomplete information and inconsistent definitions of subgroups hampered our subgroup analyses.

The analysis of type of control treatment used (placebo versus verapamil/diltiazem versus digoxin) was not applicable to the outcome of maintenance of sinus rhythm because all of the identified trials of any individual antiarrhythmic agent used placebo as the control treatment. This enhances the comparability of the various studies regarding antiarrhythmic agents versus control treatment. The evidence table includes one study (Rasmussen, Wang, and Fausa, 1981) that used verapamil as the control treatment. This trial is not included in our meta-analysis because the results were not reported in a way that was usable for that purpose. Consistent with the meta-analysis, however, this trial did report a significant benefit of quinidine relative to control treatment for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF.

The next subgroup analysis of goal followup time for maintenance of sinus rhythm of less than 6 months versus greater than or equal to 6 months revealed only one important finding in all comparisons where it was possible to do the analysis. We felt this was an important subgroup analysis because followup for greater than 6 months is a better test of an antiarrhythmic agent for the outcome of maintenance of sinus rhythm. The one important finding was in terms of sotalol versus propafenone. The overall meta-analysis resulted in evidence suggestive of efficacy of sotalol compared with propafenone (OR 1.6, CI 0.9 to 2.6). Looking only at trials with greater than or equal to 6 months of followup, however, there is moderate evidence of efficacy of sotalol (OR 1.9, CI 1.1 to 3.5) compared with propafenone.

Comparable to this finding, our results for the subgrouping of mean left-atrial size less than or equal to 4.0 centimeters versus greater than 4.0 centimeters revealed only one important finding, and this was with respect to sotalol versus propafenone. The overall evidence was suggestive of efficacy of sotalol versus propafenone (OR 1.6, CI 0.9 to 2.6). Looking only at the subgroup of subjects with mean left-atrial diameter greater than 4.0 centimeters, there is moderate evidence of efficacy of sotalol (OR 1.9, CI 1.1 to 3.5) compared with propafenone. Please see the Echocardiography section for a discussion of the individual trials that give results based on left-atrial size.

We explored whether the inclusion of subjects with atrial flutter may have influenced the likelihood of successful maintenance of sinus rhythm by separating the trials as to whether any subjects had atrial flutter. This subgroup analysis did not reveal any important treatment effect differences between trials with no subjects having atrial flutter and trials in which some subjects had atrial flutter. Individual study data are available upon request (Supplemental Figures, 1999).

Adverse effects

We report the incidence rates for adverse effects as described by each study in Evidence Tables 3 and 5. More specifically, we report the incidence rates of ventricular dysrhythmias, other nontransient dysrhythmias, and adverse events causing study drug cessation or dosage decrease. In this discussion, we combine the information from trials on conversion and trials on maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF.

If a particular study did not specifically mention a lack of serious ventricular dysrhythmias (ventricular fibrillation, polymorphic ventricular tachycardia, or torsade de pointes), we left that section of the result table blank for that study. We felt it was important to avoid making assumptions about such serious adverse effects in creating these systematic evidence tables. Overall, for all our categories of adverse effects, the data were sporadically reported in the identified clinical trials. It should be noted that randomized clinical trials are not the best method to assess uncommon adverse effects because of their controlled environments, relatively small samples, and relatively short followup times.

Only about one-half of the included studies specifically mentioned ventricular fibrillation, polymorphic ventricular tachycardia, and/or torsade de pointes as a potential adverse effect of treatment. In more detail, one trial evaluating quinidine (Hohnloser, van de Loo, and Baedeker 1995) reported the highest ventricular fibrillation rate, 12 percent, noted in our table. A trial evaluating ibutilide (Stambler, Wood, Ellenbogen et al., 1996) reported an incidence of 9 percent, and another (Ellenbogen, Stambler, Wood et al., 1996) reported an incidence of 5 percent. The one trial of dofetilide (Falk, Pollak, Singh et al., 1997) and one trial evaluating propafenone (UK Propafenone PSVT Study Group, 1995) found incidences of 3 percent. One trial investigating flecainide (Donovan, Dobb, Coombs et al., 1992) and one evaluating propafenone (Aliot and Denjoy, 1996) reported incidences of 2 percent. Finally, one trial investigating both quinidine and sotalol found incidences of 1 percent for each agent. One trial, evaluating quinidine and practolol (Levi, Proto, and Rovetta, 1973), reported an incidence of 4 percent. It is important to note that the majority of trials did not specifically mention these serious adverse effects. Given this fact, the small sample sizes, and limited followup times, our reported incidence rates need to be viewed cautiously.

The results on ventricular arrhythmias are particularly important in light of the suggestion of increased mortality in patients taking quinidine in observational studies (Coplen, Antman, Berlin et al., 1990) and the increased mortality of patients taking Class Ic agents after a myocardial infarction (The Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial [CAST] Investigators, 1989). Given incomplete reporting and inconsistent definitions of coronary artery disease, however, we were unable to analyze these relationships adequately.

As for other nontransient dysrhythmias, again only about one-half of the studies reported results. The types of dysrhythmias included significant and/or symptomatic bradycardia usually requiring intervention, functional rhythms, nonsustained ventricular tachycardias, and monomorphic ventricular tachycardias. The range of incidence rates of these types of dysrhythmia in general was 0 to 20 percent for the major antiarrhythmic agents. It was not always easy to identify which of these dysrhythmias were considered clinically significant based on the article review.

In terms of other adverse events requiring a change in drug dosage or cessation of the drug, again only about one-half of the studies reported results. The reported incidence of these adverse events was generally 0 to 50 percent for the major antiarrhythmic agents. These rates need to be cautiously interpreted because each study independently made decisions regarding dosage decreases or study withdrawals. In addition, studies involving a one-time drug administration by definition could not have adverse events requiring dosage decrease or, thereby, study withdrawal.

Summary and Conclusions, Efficacy of Antiarrythmic Agents

This systematic review of the evidence regarding the efficacy of antiarrhythmic agents in the management of non-postoperative AF yielded a substantial amount of information. In general, the bulk of evidence exists in terms of comparing each antiarrhythmic agent to control treatment as opposed to direct comparisons between different antiarrhythmic agents. This fact makes a definitive ranking of the antiarrhythmic agents in terms of efficacy difficult because not all relevant comparisons have been done. In addition, it should be noted that the evaluation of serious adverse events related to antiarrhythmic agent therapy is significantly limited when a pool of randomized clinical trials is used.

Pharmacological conversion of AF
Strong evidence of efficacy

The antiarrhythmic agents with the strongest evidence of efficacy relative to control treatment for conversion of AF are flecainide and ibutilide/dofetilide. The odds ratios for these agents relative to control treatment are 25 and 29, respectively. Furthermore, the evidence for both flecainide and ibutilide/dofetilide is consistent with a large treatment effect size. Assuming a control treatment conversion rate of 30 percent and using the upper and lower 95 percent confidence limits on these odds ratios, the estimated number of subjects needed to be treated (NNT) in order to see a benefit relative to control treatment ranged from 1.5 to 2.0 for both flecainide and ibutilide/dofetilide.

Strong evidence of efficacy relative to control treatment also exists for propafenone, with an odds ratio of 4.6. Again assuming a control treatment conversion rate of 30 percent and using the upper and lower 95 percent confidence limits on these odds ratios, the NNT range with propafenone in order to see a benefit relative to control treatment is 2.0 to 4.5.

We should note here that the NNT range is sensitive to the baseline assumption of the control treatment conversion rate. For example, if we vary the control treatment conversion rate from 5 to 75 percent for propafenone, the NNT ranges become 4.0 to 14.3 and 4.7 to 7.5, respectively. Both of these ranges are higher and broader than the range obtained by assuming a 30 percent control treatment conversion rate. This is because, at a given odds ratio, a very low or very high baseline conversion rate requires more subjects to see an effect of treatment.

Moderate evidence of efficacy

There was moderate evidence of efficacy for quinidine compared with control treatment (OR 2.9, CI 1.2 to 7.0), for conversion of AF. The estimated treatment effect size is modest. Assuming a control treatment conversion rate of 30 percent and using the 95 percent confidence limits, the range of number of subjects needed to be treated with quinidine in order to see a benefit relative to control treatment is 2.0 to 25.0.

Suggestive evidence of efficacy

Disopyramide and amiodarone have suggestive evidence of benefit relative to control treatment for acute conversion of AF relative to control treatment. The comparison of amiodarone to control treatment, however, is particularly problematic because of the substantial qualitative and quantitative heterogeneity between the combined studies. It should be noted that direct comparisons of amiodarone to other antiarrhythmic agents yielded moderate evidence of amiodarone efficacy relative to quinidine and inconclusive evidence for amiodarone compared with flecainide.

Suggestive evidence of negative efficacy

The evidence is suggestive of negative efficacy of sotalol for acute conversion of AF.

Minimal evidence

Minimal evidence existed for agents in Classes II, IV, and V and in the miscellaneous category.

Pharmacological maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF
Strong evidence of efficacy

All of the following antiarrhythmic agents have strong evidence of efficacy relative to control treatment and fairly large estimated effect size for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF: quinidine, disopyramide, flecainide, propafenone, and sotalol. The estimated odds ratios for successful maintenance of sinus rhythm relative to control treatment range from 3.1 to 7.1. Our review does not support any definitive ranking of these five agents for efficacy. Based on the evidence for control treatment, we made the assumption that only 30 percent of control treated subjects are still in sinus rhythm at 6 months. Using this assumption and the upper and lower 95 percent confidence limits for each agent, the NNT range for each agent in order to see a benefit relative to control treatment is as follows: quinidine 2.3 to 4.6; disopyramide 2.2 to 9.4; flecainide 2.3 to 10.9; propafenone 2.4 to 4.8; and sotalol 1.8 to 3.1.

Potentially strong evidence of efficacy

Evidence was scarce on amiodarone for maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF. It should be noted that one trial (Martin, Benbow, Leach et al., 1986), presenting only interim results, had moderate evidence of amiodarone efficacy relative to disopyramide. In addition, the trial by Zehender, Hohnloser, Muller et al. (1992) yielded inconclusive evidence of any benefit of amiodarone compared with quinidine. These two comparisons could, therefore, be consistent with strong evidence of efficacy of amiodarone. Notably, however, we identified no trials of amiodarone compared with control treatment for maintenance of sinus rhythm.

Minimal evidence

Minimal evidence existed for N-acetylprocainide and agents in Class IV and the miscellaneous category.

Adverse events

The use of adverse event information to guide antiarrhythmic agent choice is significantly hampered in this review. This is the result of inconsistent and sporadic reporting of the events in the articles describing the clinical trials. In addition, randomized clinical trials have significant limitations in assessing important but uncommon adverse events.

Generalizability of the Evidence

Examining the inclusion/exclusion criteria and baseline subject characteristics of all the reviewed trials, we do not believe that subject-specific factors significantly influenced the accumulated evidence. However, two points should be noted. First, the age range of the subjects in these trials was somewhat younger than would be seen in a population- based sample of AF. Because it is possible that response to pharmacological therapy may differ with age, this needs to be kept in mind. Second, our target population consisted of non-postoperative AF. The accumulated evidence, therefore, may not be applicable to subjects with postoperative AF.

Efficacy of Drugs for Achieving Rate Control in Patients With AF

Control of the ventricular rate is important in the management of subjects in atrial fibrillation. A rapid ventricular response may lead to worsening of congestive heart failure, pulmonary edema, myocardial ischemia, and systemic under-perfusion, as well as the distressing symptoms of palpitations and breathlessness. A number of drugs have been investigated for their ability to expediently control the rate, and others have been evaluated for their long-term effectiveness. For long-term effectiveness, control during exertion-when activation of the sympathetic nervous system tends to accelerate the rate-is particularly relevant.

Some of the trials presented here were not designed as rate-control studies; some were studies of pharmacological conversion cardioversion that included heart rate data. This presentation of the evidence includes a summary of the trials conducted, the quality of the studies, the effectiveness of the drugs in controlling ventricular rate, and the significant adverse effects of the drugs. We also identify drug comparisons that are notably absent and may be appropriate for further study.

Designs of the Studies

Evidence Tables 6A -- 6G list the studies that were relevant for inclusion in this review. The comparisons made in the studies include the following:

  • Calcium-channel-blockers versus placebo.

  • Beta-blockers versus placebo.

  • Digoxin (Lanoxin), other drugs, and drug combinations versus placebo.

  • Calcium-channel-blockers versus digoxin.

  • Beta-blockers versus digoxin.

  • Other drugs and drug combinations versus digoxin.

  • Other drug comparison trials.

The following medications were evaluated: diltiazem (Cardizem, Tiazac, Dilacor), verapamil (Calan, Covera, Isoptin, Verelan), atenolol (Tenormin), xamoterol, timolol (Blocarden), nadolol (Corgard), celiprolol, pindolol (Visken), propranolol (Inderal), labetalol (Normodyne, Trandate), clonidine (Catapres), propafenone (Rythmol), sotalol (Betapace), digoxin (Lanoxin), betaxolol (Kerlone), magnesium sulfate, metoprolol (Lopressor), disopyramide (Norpace), flecainide (Tambocur), quinidine (Quinaglute, Quinidex), and amiodarone (Cordarone).

The designs of the studies differ importantly in a number of ways that could influence the results.

The followup times of the studies are markedly different, ranging from less than 30 minutes to 8 weeks.

The medication dosages in the trials differ for the same medication. The intravenous diltiazem and verapamil doses are fairly uniform across the trials. Some of the beta-blocker trials titrated the medication to effectiveness; these report the ranges of dosages used. Some of the digoxin trials adjusted the medication based on blood levels, while others used fixed dosing. The trials of digoxin in combination with other drugs often continued the patient's pretrial dose of digoxin and did not report a blood level or dose.

Some of the trials that were not evaluating digoxin for rate control permitted digoxin to be continued during the trial, if the patient entered the trial while receiving digoxin therapy. This typically occurred in all arms of the trials, but the number of subjects in each arm who remained on digoxin during the trial was seldom reported.

The inclusion criteria of the trials varied. Most specified adults over the age of 18 years; some required a duration of atrial fibrillation longer than 1 month or 6 months. Several specified a ventricular rate required for entry, such as greater than 120 beats per minute or "rapid rate." Exclusion criteria varied from none specified to stringent criteria, particularly in studies that involved exercise, from which subjects with angina or significant congestive heart failure were excluded because of safety concerns. Most of the trials excluded subjects with untreated hyperthyroidism, or renal or hepatic failure.

Most of the trials were small crossover studies with two to six treatment arms. One study (Lewis, Laing, Moreland et al., 1988) enrolled only 6 subjects, while the largest study (Salerno, Dias, Kleiger et al., 1989) enrolled 113 subjects. Most of the studies enrolled fewer than 25 subjects.

The dates of the trials range from 1982 to 1997. The earliest study is by Stern, Pitchon, King et al. (1982), who compared verapamil plus digoxin with digoxin alone. The most recent trials studied diltiazem and digoxin (Schreck, Rivera, Tricarico et al., 1997); sotalol compared with placebo (Lok and Lau, 1997); and digoxin compared with placebo (The Digitalis in Acute Atrial Fibrillation [DAAF] Trial Group, 1997; Jordaens, Trouerbach, Calle et al., 1997).

Quality of the Studies

Generally, the studies were of high quality in their description of the outcomes and for having objective measures of the outcomes. The studies were weaker in their description of the study groups; it was not always possible to tell if the groups were similar. This was of less concern in the crossover studies, except in those instances where not all of the participants crossed into all arms of the study.

The statistical analyses in the trials often lacked the presentation of confidence intervals or other measures of variability. The p-values for comparisons were provided, but with such small studies the confidence intervals would have been instructive.

Abstraction of the data from the crossover studies required careful attention to the numbers of subjects who withdrew before crossover and whether they were considered to be treatment failures or censored observations. This was not always clear. Some of the crossover studies reported data from a nonrandom treatment assignment occurring after the patient had failed therapy in the randomized portion of the trial. The data we abstracted were for only the randomized portions of the trial.

The overall quality scores for the studies were variable, ranging from 31 to 81 out of 100, but with most having overall scores in the '50s and '60s. The highest quality study, from Botto, Capucci, Bonini et al. (1997), was one of the largest (105 subjects) and most recent.

Results of the Studies

In reporting the results of these rate-control studies, we abstracted the data that were most consistently reported in the trials and that were most relevant to clinicians. Some studies noted that the drugs that are most useful for heart rate control at rest may not be the most efficacious during exercise (Hohnloser and Li, 1997). Similarly, drugs that adequately control the heart rate during exercise do not always improve exercise tolerance. The data abstracted from the articles included the mean heart rate at rest on medication, the mean maximum heart rate during exercise or immediately after exercise, and the proportion of subjects who reached the goal heart rate reduction. Many of the studies also reported the distance tolerated during the exercise study or the number of minutes tolerated on the treadmill. Some studies reported VO2, a measure of oxygen consumption, while others reported cardiac output during exercise. Most, although not all, reported the side effects requiring drug withdrawal and the pro-arrhythmic effects of the medications.

In Evidence Tables 7A -- 7G , we present the results described above and the measure of statistical significance as provided in the trials, with the reference group specified. Because many of the trials included an assessment of heart rate during exercise, we provide a brief description of the exercise protocol used and the workload if known.

Calcium-channel-blockers versus placebo for rate control

As depicted graphically in Figure 39, all of the trials of calcium-channel-blockers (diltiazem and verapamil) compared with placebo demonstrated their effectiveness in controlling the heart rate at rest and with exertion. Five trials evaluated diltiazem for rate control. Three used intravenous diltiazem and followed the subjects for less than 24 hours for acute control at rest (Goldenberg, Lewis, Dias et al., 1994; Ellenbogen, Dias, Plumb et al., 1991; Salerno, Dias, Kleiger et al., 1989). All three trials reported that the number of subjects reaching the target heart rate, under 100 beats per minute, was significantly greater than with placebo. Two of the trials studied oral diltiazem. Of these, one evaluated a single oral dose of 60 mg or 120 mg and followed the subjects for several hours (Lewis, Laing, Moreland et al., 1988). The other study evaluated oral diltiazem administered 3 times daily for 3 weeks (Lundstrom and Ryden, 1990). The single oral dose significantly reduced the heart rate during a modified Bruce treadmill exercise test compared with placebo. The longer diltiazem study also found a significant reduction in mean resting heart rate on drug compared with placebo and a decrease in mean maximum heart rate with exercise. Additionally, the tolerated workload on the treadmill was greater (136 watts versus 127 watts); there was little change in VO 2 .

Five studies evaluated verapamil, all of which used oral dosing (Lewis, Laing, Moreland et al., 1988; Lundstrom and Ryden, 1990; Lundstrom, Moor, and Ryden, 1992; Lewis, McMurray, and McDevitt, 1989; Panidis, Morganroth, and Baessler, 1983). All of the studies demonstrated a significant reduction in mean resting heart rate and reduction in maximum heart rate with exercise compared with placebo. Two of the trials had both verapamil and diltiazem arms but did not report a measure of statistical significance comparing the two drugs. The response appears to be similar with the two drugs.

Importantly, all but two of the trials evaluating verapamil or diltiazem mentioned above allowed digoxin to be used by the participants. Because it is not reported what percentage of subjects in each treatment group received digoxin, this may have confounded the results. This may be less of an issue in the crossover trials because it is likely that the subjects would have continued on the same nonstudy medications throughout all phases of the trial. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the absolute degree of heart rate control achieved by use of the calcium-channel-blockers in some of the studies described above was attributable in part to concurrent use of digoxin.

A non-English-language abstract comparing diltiazem with verapamil found them to be equally effective at rate control (Tezcan, Okucu, Fak et al., 1996).

Beta-blockers versus placebo for rate control

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   Figure 40. Rate control trials of beta-blockers versus placebo for subjects with atrial fibrillation

The trials reported here include placebo versus atenolol (Lewis, McMurray, and McDevitt, 1989; Channer, James, MacConnell et al., 1994), xamoterol (Lewis, McMurray, and McDevitt, 1989; Lundstrom, Moor, and Ryden, 1992; Ang, Chan, Cleland et al., 1990), nadolol (DiBianco, Morganroth, Freitag et al., 1984), labetalol (Wong, Lau, Leung et al., 1990), celiprolol (Myers, Atwood, Sullivan et al., 1987; Lin, Morganroth, Heng et al., 1986), pindolol (Channer, James, MacConnell et al., 1994), and timolol (Sweany, Moncloa, Vickers et al., 1985). Some of the studies included more than one of the above beta-blockers with followup ranging from hours to 4 weeks. The results are graphically displayed in Figure 40. For lowering mean heart rate at rest, atenolol was significantly better than placebo in both studies; one used 50 mg daily and the other used 50 mg twice daily or 100 mg daily. Xamoterol was not better than placebo at 100 mg twice daily, or at 200 mg twice daily in two studies. One study (Lundstrom, Moore, and Ryden, 1992) did demonstrate effectiveness for xamoterol at 200 mg twice daily. Timolol treatment resulted in more subjects reaching the target heart rate of under 100 bpm than placebo. Pindolol at 5 mg twice daily or 15 mg twice daily significantly reduced mean resting heart rate, as did nadolol at a titrated dose. Celiprolol and labetalol were no better than placebo at rest.

All of the beta-blockers that were evaluated against placebo demonstrated a significant reduction in heart rate with exercise. Atenolol, celiprolol, xamoterol, labetalol, and nadolol all reduced maximum heart rate with exercise compared with placebo. Timolol and pindolol were not evaluated during exercise. It is important to note, however, that exercise tolerance may be less on medication than on placebo. In one study (Lewis, McMurray, and McDevitt 1989), the distance walked on the treadmill was less on atenolol and on xamoterol than on placebo. Similarly in the nadolol and celiprolol trials, the time spent walking on the modified Bruce protocol was less than on placebo. However, the other xamoterol trial (Ang, Chan, Cleland et al., 1990) found that the beta-blocker recipients spent longer on the treadmill than the placebo-treated subjects (10.7 min versus 9.7 min). The clinical importance of these differences is not known.

As in the calcium-channel-blocker studies, most of the trials allowed subjects to continue use of digoxin if they were already taking it.

Digoxin, other drugs, and combinations compared with placebo

Three of the trials of digoxin versus placebo did not demonstrate a reduction in mean resting heart rate. One study (Lewis, Laing, Moreland et al., 1988) evaluated the subjects just hours after a single oral dose of 0.25 mg of digoxin. Similarly, Falk, Knowlton, Bernard et al. (1987) evaluated the subjects 15 minutes after an oral dose of 0.6 mg of digoxin and found no difference in heart rates. The other trial (Wong, Lau, Leung et al., 1990) used 0.25 mg of digoxin daily for 10 to 14 days, but no significant difference was demonstrated (91 beats per minute for digoxin and 102 beats per minute for placebo). Each arm had only 11 subjects, which limits the power to detect a significant difference. Four digoxin trials did find a significant difference in resting heart rate compared with placebo (Ang, Chan, Cleland et al., 1990; Jordaens, Trouerbach, Calle et al., 1997; Digitalis in Acute Atrial Fibrillation (DAAF) Trial Group, 1997; and Koh, Kwon, Park et al., 1995). The DAAF Trial Group (1997) and Jordaens (1997) both included patients on verapamil; all of the rate reduction cannot be attributed to digoxin alone. The Ang (1990) study involved adjusting the digoxin dose to a serum concentration, which suggests that careful early attention to dosing may be important.

The Ang (1990) study did not find a significant benefit of digoxin with exercise (heart rate of 150 beats per minute on digoxin versus 159 beats per minute on placebo). The other two studies (Lewis, Laing, Moreland et al., 1988; Wong, Lau, Leung et al., 1990) also found no significant heart rate reduction. Koh does not report the statistical significance of the difference in heart rate, but there is the suggestion of a difference (165 beats per minute with digoxin and 196 beats per minute with placebo with exercise) (Koh, Kwon, Park et al., 1995).

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   Figure 41. Rate control trials of digoxin versus placebo for subjects with atrial fibrillation

Studies evaluating digoxin are displayed in Figure 41. Clonidine was evaluated against placebo in two trials. The study by Roth, Kaluski, Felner et al. (1992) evaluated its use in the emergency room with 4 hours of followup and found that 8 of 9 subjects treated with clonidine reached a heart rate of under 100 beats per minute, including 3 subjects who had reverted to sinus rhythm. The placebo treatment in that trial resulted in 2 of 9 subjects with a heart rate under 100 beats per minute, including one in sinus rhythm. This is suggestive of a significant treatment effect. In neither arm was the absolute heart rate reduction significantly different from baseline, but, as stated above, more subjects achieved the goal heart rate with clonidine. The other trial of clonidine used 0.075 mg orally twice daily for 3 days and found a significant reduction in mean resting heart rate compared with placebo (90 beats per minute versus 104 beats per minute). Neither trial evaluated the subjects with exercise. One small trial evaluated magnesium sulfate versus placebo, along with digoxin to all subjects, for rate control at rest (Brodsky, Saini, Bellinger et al., 1994). More subjects achieved adequate rate control with magnesium sulfate than with placebo, but this included patients who had converted to sinus rhythm.

Another drug evaluated against placebo was propafenone. Botto, Capucci, Bonini et al. (1997) found a significant reduction in resting heart rate compared with placebo at a dose of 450 mg orally or 600 mg orally. Three combinations were evaluated against placebo, digoxin/diltiazem (Lewis, Irvine, and McDevitt, 1988; Koh, Kwon, Park et al., 1995; Koh, Song, Kwon et al., 1995), digoxin/labetalol (Wong, Lau, Leung et al., 1990), and digoxin/betaxolol (Koh, Kwon, Park et al., 1995; Koh, Song, Kwon et al., 1995). The digoxin/diltiazem combination was effective both at rest and with exercise with no change in cardiac output compared with placebo. In the 1995 Koh, Song, Kwon trial, exercise capacity increased compared with placebo, but no difference was reported in the Koh, Kwon, Park et al. paper (1995). The digoxin/labetalol combination was not effective at rest but was effective with exercise when compared with placebo (heart rate of 154 beats per minute versus 175 beats per minute). Additionally, the time spent on the treadmill was longer with the combination than with placebo (16.1 minutes versus 14.1 minutes using the modified Bruce protocol). The digoxin/betaxolol combination significantly reduced the heart rate compared with placebo both at rest and with exercise.

Calcium-channel-blockers compared with digoxin for rate control

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   Figure 42. Rate control trials of calcium-channel-blocker versus digoxin for subjects with atrial fibrillation

Three trials compared diltiazem with digoxin (Schreck, Rivera, and Tricarico, 1997; Lewis, Irvine, and McDevitt, 1988; Lewis, Laing, Moreland et al., 1988), and three trials compared verapamil with digoxin (Lewis, Irvine, and McDevitt, 1988; Pomfret, Beasley, Challenor et al., 1988; Ahuja, Sinha, Saran et al., 1989). These are shown in Figure 42. The Schreck (1997) study compared intravenous diltiazem with intravenous digoxin with followup of only 3 hours. The mean resting heart rate was lower after 3 hours on digoxin compared with baseline. Diltiazem was more quickly effective, with a significant heart rate reduction from baseline in 5 minutes. This difference was significantly different from the rate in the digoxin group at 3 minutes. This is not unexpected given the pharmacokinetics of these drugs. One study (Lewis, Laing, Moreland et al., 1988) evaluated a single oral dose of 0.25 mg of digoxin against a single oral dose of diltiazem (60 mg or 120 mg) after several hours of followup. The statistical significance of the difference is not reported. With exercise, the rates appeared to be different, although the statistical significance was not presented. The mean maximum heart rate on digoxin was 159 beats per minute, and on diltiazem it was 143 beats per minute for the 60 mg dose and 133 beats per minute for the 120 mg dose. Notably, the cardiac output on digoxin during exercise was greater than in the two diltiazem groups (12.6 liters/minute versus 10.9 liters/minute and 9.1 liters/minute for 60 mg and 120 mg, respectively). Another study (Lewis, Irvine, and McDevitt, 1988) used digoxin adjusted by serum level and diltiazem dosed 3 times daily for 4 weeks. The statistical significance of the results at rest and with exercise was not presented, but there was the suggestion of a greater treatment effect with diltiazem.

Lewis, Laing, Moreland et al. (1988) investigated verapamil as a single oral 80 mg dose. It reduced the mean resting heart rate to 79 beats per minute, while it was 97 beats per minute after a dose of digoxin. In the Pomfret (1988) study, verapamil was evaluated at 40 mg 3 times daily and 80 mg 3 times daily versus daily digoxin for 2 weeks. The only statistically significant result was for the reduction in mean maximum heart rate with exercise on the higher verapamil dose compared with either digoxin or the lower verapamil dose. The resting heart rates did not differ significantly. The Ahuja (1989) trial of digoxin versus verapamil found that digoxin did not decrease the resting heart from baseline, while verapamil did. Both drugs decreased the maximum heart rate with exercise from baseline. The group receiving verapamil was able to exercise longer on the treadmill than was the group receiving digoxin. This latter study (Ahuja, 1989) received a low overall quality score, losing most points for not adequately describing the enrolled subjects and for not specifying any inclusion or exclusion criteria.

One non-English-language abstract reported that diltiazem was more efficacious than digoxin both at rest and during exercise (Vitale, Auricchio, De Stefano et al., 1989).

Beta-blockers compared with digoxin for rate control

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   Figure 43. Rate control trials of beta-blockers versus digoxin for subjects with atrial fibrillation

The comparison of beta-blockers with digoxin was made in four studies (Lawson-Matthew, McLean, Dent et al., 1995; Ahuja, Sinha, Saran et al., 1989; Ang, Chan, Cleland et al., 1990; Wong, Lau, Leung et al., 1990) and is shown in Figure 43. Lawson-Matthew (1995) and Ang (1990) evaluated xamoterol 200 mg twice daily versus daily digoxin. In both studies, digoxin reduced the mean resting heart rate significantly more than did xamoterol. The rates in both arms of the former study were much higher than in the latter study. Only the Ang (1990) trial evaluated the drugs with exercise. With the modified Bruce treadmill protocol, xamoterol controlled heart rate more effectively than digoxin (136 beats per minute versus 150 beats per minute). The time on the treadmill was similar. Ahuja (1989) found that metoprolol reduced the mean resting heart rate compared with baseline, while digoxin did not. With exercise, both drugs reduced the heart rate from baseline. The time on the treadmill was longer with metoprolol than with digoxin; the significance of this is unknown. Wong (1990) evaluated labetalol versus digoxin. There was no difference between the groups' heart rates at rest with labetalol compared with digoxin. However, with exercise, labetalol controlled the rate significantly better (156 beats per minute versus 177 beats per minute). The one non-English-language abstract reviewed reported similar findings-heart rate reduction at rest with either drug but greater rate reduction with exercise with the beta-blocker (Lanas, Salvatici, Castillo et al., 1995).

Other drugs and combinations compared with digoxin for rate control

Eight trials evaluated digoxin versus a combination of digoxin with a calcium-channel-blocker (Channer, Papouchado, James et al., 1987; Stern, Pitchon, King et al., 1982; Lang, Klein, Di Segni et al., 1983; Schreck, Rivera, and Tricarico 1997; Lewis, Irvine, and McDevitt 1988; Pomfret, Beasley, Challenor et al., 1988; Lewis, Laing, Moreland et al., 1988; Koh, Kwon, Park et al., 1995). Seven are displayed in Figure 44. The eighth (Channer, Papouchado, James et al. 1987) reported the outcome as the area under the curve, plotting time against mean maximum resting heart rate. Only the study by Schreck (1997) did not find a significant decrease in mean resting heart rate with the addition of a calcium-channel-blocker to digoxin. This study, however, may have been too small to find a clinically significant difference. In all of the other trials, the addition of diltiazem or verapamil to digoxin significantly lowered the mean resting heart rate compared with digoxin alone. In the Channer (1987) study, the combination significantly reduced the heart rate compared with digoxin alone but at the expense of a greater percentage of subjects having ventricular pauses longer than 2.5 seconds. Six of the studies included an exercise evaluation. In five of the six, the calcium-channel-blocker/digoxin combination controlled the rate better than digoxin alone. The sixth did not report the statistical significance of this outcome.

One trial compared digoxin with two different doses of sotalol versus digoxin alone (Brodsky, Orlov, Capparelli et al., 1994). Both combination arms significantly reduced the mean resting heart rate and the mean heart rate with exercise compared with digoxin alone.

One trial of digoxin plus nadolol (Zoble, Brewington, Olukotun et al., 1987), one trial of digoxin plus xamoterol (Lawson-Matthew, McLean, Dent et al., 1995), and one trial of digoxin plus betaxolol (Koh, Kwon, Park et al., 1995) demonstrated significant reductions in the resting heart rate compared with digoxin alone. The resting study of digoxin plus labetalol (Wong, Lau, Leung et al., 1990) did not find a difference from digoxin alone. The Zoble (1987) study demonstrated impressive heart rate control with exercise, with the combination of digoxin plus nadolol compared with digoxin alone (120 beats per minute versus 162 beats per minute) with equivalent time on the treadmill. Similarly, in the Wong (1990) study, the combination of digoxin plus labetalol was more effective with exercise than was digoxin alone (154 beats per minute versus 177 beats per minute), and in the Koh study (Koh, Kwon, Park et al., 1995), digoxin plus betaxolol was more effective with exercise than digoxin alone (133 beats per minute versus 165 beats per minute). The Lawson-Matthew (1995) study reported fewer pauses on the xamoterol/digoxin combination than on digoxin alone (427 versus 1,207 total/24 hours).

The single trial of magnesium sulfate plus digoxin (Hays, Gilman, and Rubal, 1994) found no significant difference in mean resting heart rate compared with digoxin alone (120 beats per minute versus 131 beats per minute), but this was a very small trial.

Channer (1987) investigated double-dose digoxin up to 0.50 mg per day versus the usual maintenance dose of digoxin and found that the area under the resting heart rate curve was significantly reduced with the higher-dose digoxin but at the expense of more subjects with ventricular pauses (75 percent versus 29 percent). One non-English-language abstract studied daily dosing of digoxin compared with discontinuous dosing and found that daily dosing controlled heart rate better (Soto Pedre, Castro Beiras, and Cuna Estevez, 1990).

Other drugs evaluated for rate control

Nine other randomized trials evaluated drugs for rate control in atrial fibrillation. Two studies evaluated intravenous magnesium sulfate versus intravenous verapamil for acute control (Joshi, Deshmukh, and Salkar, 1995; Gullestad, Birkeland, Molstad et al., 1993). The Joshi study used two bolus doses of each medication, while the Gullestad study used two boluses and then a maintenance intravenous drip of medication. In both studies, a higher percentage of subjects reached a heart rate under 100 beats per minute with verapamil than with magnesium sulfate. In the Gullestad study, however, 6 of the 19 subjects treated with verapamil had symptomatic hypotension or congestive heart failure during the 24 hours of treatment.

Two studies reported on rate control with propafenone or flecainide, both at 2 mg/kg intravenously for 1 hour (Suttorp, Kingma, Jessurun et al., 1990; Kingma and Suttorp, 1992). In both studies, subjects were allowed to continue on digoxin, calcium-channel-blockers, and beta-blockers. Both drugs significantly reduced the heart rate from baseline, but data are not presented to allow the comparison of one drug to the other. The side effects with flecainide were of greater concern than with propafenone. In one study 3 of 25 subjects, and in the other 4 of 45 subjects, in the flecainide arms developed conduction abnormalities (left bundle branch block, junctional escape rhythm, and sinus arrest). Another study evaluated propafenone compared with quinidine for rate control (Lee, Chen, Chiang et al., 1996). Propafenone significantly slowed the heart rate at rest compared with quinidine. Either drug effectively slowed the heart rate compared with baseline.

The remainder of the trials support the following observations. Disopyramide did not reduce the mean resting heart rate from baseline (Boudonas, Lefkos, Efthymiadis et al., 1995). The combination of diltiazem and digoxin reduced the mean resting heart rate to a greater degree than the combination of propranolol and digoxin, but all three drugs together were even more effective (Dahlstrom, Edvardsson, Nasheng et al., 1992). This same study demonstrated that, with exercise, the combination of propranolol and digoxin was more effective than diltiazem and digoxin, and that the three-drug combination was not better than just propranolol and digoxin. The combination of pindolol and digoxin reduced the heart rate significantly compared with verapamil and digoxin (James, Channer, Papouchado et al., 1989). The combination of amiodarone and digoxin slowed the resting heart rate compared with baseline, while the combination of quinidine, verapamil, and digoxin did not, but this was a small trial with relatively low resting heart rates (Zehender, Hohnloser, Muller et al., 1992).

Summary

Compared with placebo, the calcium-channel-blockers, diltiazem and verapamil, are efficacious in reducing the resting heart rate of patients with atrial fibrillation. They are also efficacious at reducing maximum heart rate with exercise. The evidence is strong supporting these observations but tempered by the fact that some of the subjects were also receiving digoxin. Little information is available to compare diltiazem with verapamil. The trials comparing the calcium-channel-blockers with digoxin support the conclusion that the calcium-channel-blockers work more quickly for rate control. The long-term comparison of diltiazem versus digoxin was a small study and did not adequately report the statistical significance of the results. The longer study of verapamil versus digoxin supports the conclusion that verapamil is superior at heart rate control with exercise but that there is little difference in resting heart rate between the two therapies.

The effect of beta-blockers on resting heart rate is mixed. All of the beta-blockers tested reduced the heart rate during exercise compared with placebo. Exercise tolerance, however, was decreased on beta-blockers in a number of the studies; it was not clear if this caused the lower heart rate or was a result of the lower heart rate and possibly lower cardiac output. As with the calcium-channel-blocker studies, most of these trials allowed the participants to continue on digoxin. The results of the four studies that compared beta-blockers with digoxin were mixed, with xamoterol appearing to be less effective than digoxin for reducing resting heart rate, while metoprolol was more effective than digoxin. With exercise, all of the beta-blockers were more effective than digoxin for rate control. The differences in performance of the beta-blockers could be a result of the differences in receptor-specificities of the drugs, notably xamoterol, which is a selective beta-1 adrenoreceptor partial agonist and then a beta-1 adrenoreceptor competitive antagonist when sympathetic nervous system activation increases.

The trials that combined a calcium-channel-blocker with digoxin provide strong evidence that the addition of this drug to digoxin provides better rate control at rest and with exercise than does digoxin alone. However, in only two studies was the combination significantly more efficacious than the calcium-channel-blocker alone, and in two other studies the combination was not more efficacious. Thus, the evidence about the combination remains equivocal.

Few studies, mostly small, involved other drugs and drug combinations. Any conclusions regarding use of these drugs is therefore based only on suggestive evidence. Digoxin alone may reduce resting heart rate, but it may require careful attention to serum levels for maximum effectiveness. It is unlikely to be useful by itself during exercise. Clonidine may reduce resting heart rate, as may propafenone. The combination of digoxin and labetalol is efficacious at rest and with exercise compared with placebo. The combination of sotalol with digoxin is more efficacious at rest and with exercise than digoxin alone, as are the combinations of digoxin plus nadolol and digoxin plus xamoterol. Magnesium sulfate does not appear to be as efficacious as verapamil in controlling heart rate at rest, although it is better tolerated. The triple combination of digoxin, propranolol, and diltiazem is more effective than digoxin and diltiazem together, but not more so than propranolol and digoxin together. Similarly, the combination of pindolol and digoxin reduces the resting heart rate more than does the combination of verapamil and digoxin.

Conclusions

The evidence suggests that a calcium-channel-blocker alone is effective for controlling the resting heart rate in patients with atrial fibrillation; a beta-blocker alone may or may not be and is likely drug-dependent. Digoxin may be useful alone, but it requires careful attention to serum level. Digoxin is not useful for acute rate control, and effective heart rate control with exercise requires medication other than digoxin alone. The beta-blockers and calcium-channel-blockers alone are effective during exercise, although response is greater when they are combined with digoxin. There is some evidence that the beta-blocker/digoxin combination is more effective during exercise at controlling rate than a calcium-channel/digoxin combination. No summary conclusion can be made about exercise tolerance on the medications and combinations because the outcomes reported are so varied.

Efficacy of Anticoagulants and Antiplatelet Agents in Management of AF and Meta-Analysis of Results

Although warfarin may be widely acknowledged as efficacious in the prevention of stroke in atrial fibrillation, the risk of major hemorrhage leaves many clinicians wary of prescribing this medication. In our synthesis of the literature, we describe all of the randomized clinical trials of anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents in patients with atrial fibrillation that address the outcomes of stroke and hemorrhage. By presenting these data systematically, this report attempts to improve understanding and awareness of the magnitude of the benefits and risks of warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation. The rates of stroke and hemorrhage are reviewed and interpreted in light of the characteristics of the patients enrolled and intensity of the therapy. The efficacy of aspirin therapy is also reviewed, and the newer agents-low molecular weight heparin and indobufen-are evaluated alongside the more familiar agents. The absolute rates of events are presented so that the risks and benefits of each therapy can be appreciated.

Designs of the Studies

Evidence Table 8 lists the studies that were relevant for inclusion in this review. The comparisons made in the studies are as follows:
  • Warfarin versus placebo.

  • Warfarin versus aspirin.

  • Warfarin versus indobufen.

  • Warfarin versus aspirin plus low-dose warfarin.

  • Aspirin versus placebo.

  • Low molecular weight heparin versus placebo.

The following medications were evaluated: warfarin (Coumadin), low molecular weight heparin (Lovenox, Fragmin, Normiflo), indobufen, and aspirin.

The studies differ in a number of significant ways that could affect the outcomes. Evidence Table 8 presents details of the study designs that could influence the use and interpretation of the results.

  • 1

    The target international normalized ratio (INR) is included in this description as the measure of intensity of anticoagulation. The optimal INR was unknown at the time of most of these studies.

  • 2

    The year of publication is displayed. Some of the trials build on the results of the preceding trials, particularly apparent in the SPAF series (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation 1991; 1994; 1996). Furthermore, time-related trends, including the development of newer agents to maintain sinus rhythm and more intensive treatment of stroke patients, may affect the results in the more recent trials by altering event rates and mortality rates.

  • 3

    The mean length of followup is shown in Evidence Table 9 in order to present the outcomes as rates per year for comparison across trials. In general, the incidence rates of stroke and hemorrhage were constant over the period of followup. Neither the Atrial Fibrillation, Aspirin, and Anticoagulant Therapy Study (AFASAK) group (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) nor the investigators of warfarin versus indobufen (Morocutti, Amabile, Fattapposta et al., 1997) report the mean followup time, although the intended time of followup was reported.

  • 4

    Notably, two of the studies, SPAF I (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1991) and EAFT (European Atrial Fibrillation Trial Study Group, 1993), had designs in which the patients were separated into warfarin-eligible and warfarin-ineligible groups based on clinical features or patient preference. Randomization took place after separation into these two groups. Therefore, the controls for each group are described separately, and the warfarin and aspirin arms of the trials cannot validly be compared.

  • 5

    The number of enrolled patients is presented, which clearly demonstrates the range in size of these studies, from the 75-patient low molecular weight heparin study (Harenberg, Weuster, Pfitzer et al., 1993) to the 1,500-patient SPAF I study (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1991).

Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria

The studies all had explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria. The characteristics of the patients enrolled may have a major impact on the results, so attention to the inclusion and exclusion criteria is essential in interpreting these results and in determining whether studies are appropriate for combination in meta-analysis. Furthermore, generalizability of the results depends on these criteria.

Those eligibility criteria that are the most consistent among the trials and those that could have an impact on the outcomes are presented in Evidence Table 8. Notably, three of the studies enrolled only patients with chronic atrial fibrillation, whereas the others allowed inclusion of participants with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, as defined separately and differently in each trial. It is unresolved as to whether patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation are at less risk of embolic stroke than are patients with chronic atrial fibrillation. Subgroup analysis was done in a number of the studies upon which we report, including the Boston Area Anticoagulation Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (BAATAF) (1990) and the Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study (SPAF I) (1991), without evidence of different stroke rates in the paroxysmal versus the chronic atrial fibrillation patients. A recent autopsy study of elderly patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation found that the embolic rate from a cardiac source was similar to that of patients in chronic atrial fibrillation and considerably higher than that of elderly patients without paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (Yamanouchi, Mizutani, Matsushia et al., 1997). The stroke rates in that study, however, were higher than are commonly seen. Thus, this question is not yet definitively answered.

Seven of the trials excluded patients with severe hypertension, and four excluded patients with severe heart failure. All of the studies excluded patients with rheumatic valvular disease, for whom there is strong evidence that anticoagulation is indicated (Peverill, Harper, Gelman et al., 1996). Except for AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989), which did not specify, all the trials excluded patients with absolute indications or absolute contraindications to anticoagulants or antiplatelet agents and also excluded patients with conditions, such as hyperthyroidism, that could influence the outcomes of treatment for atrial fibrillation. In addition to coagulopathies and thrombocytopenia, a number of the exclusionary criteria were those features that have been identified as risks for major hemorrhage with warfarin-specifically, alcohol abuse, renal insufficiency, and prior gastrointestinal bleed (McMahan, Smith, Carey et al., 1998).

Importantly, the EAFT (1993) trial and the indobufen study (Morocutti, Amabile, Fattapposta et al., 1997) were exclusively secondary prevention trials (i.e., specifically enrolling patients who had already had a stroke or a transient ischemic attack). This population is likely to be at significantly higher risk for a subsequent stroke. Thus, the results of these studies should be interpreted separately from the other trials. The 1996 Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study (SPAF III) is both a primary and a secondary prevention trial. The SPAF III investigators specifically recruited high-risk patients by requiring one of the following for enrollment: that the participant have a systolic blood pressure over 160 mm Hg, a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, an ejection fraction under 25 percent, or recent symptomatic congestive heart failure, or that the participant be a woman over 75 years of age. The outcomes of this trial were not presented separately by the reason for enrollment.

Quality of the Studies

The methodological quality of the studies was evaluated as described in the Methods section. Clearly, the methodological quality scores are related to the design of the trial and its execution but also to the reporting of the study. Successful accomplishment of both of these contributes to strong evidence. We include this detailed description of the five domains in which the studies were evaluated for two reasons. First, clinical decisions should ideally be based on high-quality studies. An impression of the strengths and weaknesses of each study is garnered from its quality scores, which then guide the use of the study results. The score in each domain is useful in predicting which possible biases may exist in each trial. Second, systematic review of the quality of the studies allows us to identify weaknesses that are common to the trials, which may be remedied in future studies.

The studies nearly uniformly provided adequate description of the study participants and excluded subjects. Many of the studies, however, failed to provide a complete description of the setting and time over which the subjects were recruited. Most of the studies adequately described the randomization process and presented data regarding the adequacy of randomization. Nearly all of the studies were double masked, and few provided enough detail to show if they were triple masked (i.e., patients, investigators, and outcomes evaluators all masked as to treatment assignment). The small study of low molecular weight heparin (Harenberg, Weuster, and Pfitzer, 1993) is the study that may be most subject to potential bias or confounding, having received only 17 percent of the points available in the category that addresses possible sources of bias.

The studies were weakest in their description of the protocols, with the most notable deficits in their descriptions of ancillary therapies received by the subjects. For example, few of the studies reported which classes of medications were specifically excluded or allowed, or provided details regarding the other medications being used by the participants. This is a concern because it was not always clear whether patients were permitted to continue on therapies that could affect the outcomes. For example, it was infrequently reported whether patients in the placebo arm of a warfarin study were permitted to use aspirin or nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agents, or whether patients were using antiarrhythmic therapy, which could affect the rates of events.

For the most part, the studies were explicit in their definitions of the outcomes of interest and used objective methods for determining these outcomes, making bias in assessment of the outcomes less of a concern. The studies were weaker in their completeness of describing the participants who withdrew from the study. Commonly, the number of patients and the reasons for withdrawal were reported but with no followup data describing the outcomes for these withdrawing patients. In the warfarin studies, in particular, the withdrawal rates were high, making the outcomes in these patients potentially important.

The statistical results were generally well reported, with the predominant criticism being the lack of reporting of confidence intervals to accompany the measures of statistical significance. The lack of confidence intervals makes it more difficult to assess the range of true effects that are compatible with the reported effect. Most of the investigators performed intention-to-treat analyses when appropriate. Notably, a number of the studies were terminated prematurely because of the high incidence of stroke in the placebo (or less intense therapy) arms. This includes the AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) and II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998), SPAF I (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation, 1991) and SPAF III (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation, 1996), and CAFA (Canadian Atrial Fibrillation Anticoagulation) (Connolly, Laupacis, Gent et al., 1991) studies. BAATAF (Boston Area Anticoagulation Trial in Atrial Fibrillation, 1990) was terminated when a predetermined level of proof of efficacy of warfarin was met.

The overall quality scores for the studies are the average of the five categorical scores. All of the studies except one received overall scores above 70 percent, and the highest observed score was 89 percent. This indicates that all but one of the studies met more than 70 percent of the criteria and should be considered high-quality studies. In comparison, only 30 of the 67 studies we reviewed about conversion of atrial fibrillation and subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm had overall quality scores greater than 70 percent. This difference in scores is consistent with our reviewers' impressions that the studies about anticoagulation generally were stronger than the studies about pharmacologic conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm.

Results of the Trials

Characteristics of the Participants

The descriptions of the enrolled patients are included in Evidence Table 9 to highlight the similarities and differences among the participants in the trials. The clinical characteristics included in this table were selected based on the clinical features that had been identified as being associated with a high risk of stroke. These factors were those identified in the analysis of pooled data from the five earliest clinical trials (the Atrial Fibrillation Investigation with Bidisomide [AFIB] Investigators, 1994 ). The risk factors are a history of hypertension, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, diabetes mellitus, and older age. The column showing percentage with hypertension mostly reflects prevalent hypertension rather than a history of hypertension. We also present the percentage of patients with congestive heart failure because this was a high-risk feature among the SPAF I (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation, 1991) and SPAF II (1994) participants.

Most of the studies included more men than women, notably the SPINAF (Stroke Prevention in Nonrheumatic Atrial Fibrillation) study, which included only men (Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992). The mean age of the participants in each trial exceeded 65 years. Race or ethnicity data were rarely presented in the trials and are not included in this table.

The secondary prevention studies, of course, required that 100 percent of the participants had a previous stroke or transient ischemic attack. Additionally, the high-risk SPAF III (1996) trial had 36 percent of its participants with a previous cerebral event. Among the other studies, the prevalence of prior stroke or transient ischemic attack was low, between 3 percent and 10 percent.

The percentage of patients with paroxysmal AF is displayed. The relative risk of stroke in these patients compared with those with chronic AF is unclear. The SPAF I (1991) and EAFT (1993) studies had the greatest percentages of patients with paroxysmal AF, roughly one-quarter to one-third of the patients, while the SPINAF (Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992) and AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) trials excluded these patients from participation. None of the trials exclusively recruited patients with paroxysmal AF.

Although four of the trials excluded patients with New York Heart Association Class III, Class IV, or "severe" heart failure, most of the trials had a sizable percentage of patients with congestive heart failure, as defined in each trial. Some of the trials defined congestive heart failure based on echocardiographic features, while others used information from the patient's history. Seventy percent of the AFASAK II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998) participants had congestive heart failure, while the rate in the EAFT study (1993) participants was about 10 percent. The EAFT study does not describe how congestive heart failure was defined and may have had more stringent criteria than the other studies. The rates in the other trials ranged from one-fifth to one-third of all participants. Similarly, the percentage of participants with hypertension was high, ranging from 31 percent in the SPAF III (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1996) and AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) trials to 59 percent in the SPINAF (Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992) trial. As described above, some of the trials excluded patients with severe high blood pressure. None of the trials enrolled exclusively patients with "lone atrial fibrillation," that is, AF with a structurally normal heart and no significant comorbid illnesses.

The reporting of smoking was too variable to summarize usefully. Some trials report current smoking and some report former or ever use of tobacco. None report pack-years of tobacco use.

Notably absent in all of the trials is a description of the patients' risks for falling. Patients with significant fall risks (such as gait instability from orthopedic problems, previous stroke, visual impairment, or use of medications that may cause orthostatic hypotension) are likely to be at increased risk of trauma and associated bleeding. Furthermore, the mortality rate resulting from falls can be expected to be higher in patients who are anticoagulated. Clinicians are less apt to prescribe anticoagulants to patients at significant fall risk, making the results of these trials less generalizable to frail elderly patients with risk factors for falling.

None of the trials was in an exclusively institutionalized, elderly population. Institutionalized older patients are more likely to have their medications closely supervised and may have a different level of fall risk because many are nonambulatory or have ready assistance with ambulation, so that the rates of outcomes of interest in these patients may be substantially different.

The percentage of international normalized ratio (INR) measurements within the goal range, as well as above goal and under goal, is reported in this table. A study of the optimal INR for prevention of stroke supports that outcomes are sensitive to the INR goal range (Optimal oral anticoagulant therapy, N Engl J Med, 1995). Furthermore, the percentage of measurements within goal range may be an indicator of how carefully the trial was conducted or of patient acceptance of therapy.

Outcomes

The relevant outcomes are presented in Evidence Table 9. In this table, the percentage of participants in each arm with the outcomes of stroke, peripheral embolism, major hemorrhage, minor hemorrhage, and death are presented. Comparison across studies should be done with careful attention to the different followup times of each study. Within each study, comparison of the outcomes for the different treatment arms is presented graphically on the accompanying scatterplots.

The scatterplots in Figures 46--58 display the absolute rates of the outcomes. On these figures, the absolute rates of events in each treatment arm are plotted, so the rates can be compared with each other within each outcome, and also the absolute rates can be compared betweendifferent outcomes. For each study, the rates of the event of interest have a data point and confidence intervals. For the sake of clarity, the confidence intervals for the placebo rates are not shown on the figure. The dashed line represents the line of equivalency; that is, where each data point would fall if there were no difference in the rates of stroke in the two treatment arms. If the confidence interval touches the line of equivalency, there cannot be a statistically significant difference between the two rates. However, the converse is not true. The confidence interval nottouching this line is not sufficient statistical proof that there is a difference between the two rates. These figures facilitate the following comparisons:
  • Absolute rates of stroke with warfarin compared with placebo.

  • Absolute rates of peripheral embolism with warfarin compared with placebo.

  • Absolute rates of major hemorrhage with warfarin compared with placebo.

  • Absolute rates of minor hemorrhage with warfarin compared with placebo.

  • Absolute rates of death with warfarin compared with placebo.

  • Absolute rates of stroke with aspirin compared with placebo.

  • Absolute rates of major hemorrhage with aspirin compared with placebo.

  • Absolute rates of death with aspirin compared with placebo.

  • Absolute rates of stroke with warfarin compared with aspirin.

  • Absolute rates of major hemorrhage with warfarin compared with aspirin.

  • Absolute rates of death with warfarin compared with aspirin.

  • Absolute rates of stroke with warfarin compared with aspirin plus low-dose warfarin.

  • Absolute rates of major hemorrhage with warfarin compared with aspirin plus low-dose warfarin.

An external file that holds a picture, illustration, etc., usually as some form of binary object. The name of referred object is f3317_f045b.jpg.

   Figure 45b. Summary of meta-analysis results on the efficacy of aspirin versus placebo in patients with atrial fibrillation


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
Individual study data available on request

An external file that holds a picture, illustration, etc., usually as some form of binary object. The name of referred object is f3317_f045c.jpg.

   Figure 45c. Summary of meta-analysis results on the efficacy of warfarin versus aspirin in patients with atrial fibrillation


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
Individual study data available on request

An external file that holds a picture, illustration, etc., usually as some form of binary object. The name of referred object is f3317_f045d.jpg.

   Figure 45d. Summary of meta-analysis results on the efficacy of warfarin versus low-dose warfarin and aspirin in patients with atrial fibrillation


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
Individual study data available on request

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   Figure 45e. Summary of meta-analysis results on the efficacy of warfarin versus indobufen in patients with atrial fibrillation


Notes:
Vertical bars are point estimates. Horizontal bars and numbers in brackets are 95% confidence intervals using fixed-effects model unless otherwise indicated.
Individual study data available on request

Odds ratios are the effect measure used to contrast risks in this report. The odds ratio is the odds of the outcome of interest while on one therapy compared with the odds of the outcome while on the other therapy. These are reported on the figures displaying the pooling of the results, entitled Summary of Meta-Analysis Results (Figures 45a--45f and 59a--59b). The comparisons presented are those noted above and also the comparisons for which there was only one trial and the subgroup analyses. The supplement to Figure 45 displays the odds ratio.

The odds ratios for each outcome were combined in accordance with the plan described in Methods for Meta-Analysis, to result in aggregate odds ratios that are also presented on Figures 45 and 59. The 95 percent confidence interval is plotted for each odds ratio and for the aggregate odds ratio. The trial using indobufen (Morocutti, Amabile, Fattapposta et al., 1997) and the trial of low molecular weight heparin (Harenberg, Weuster, Pfitzer et al., 1993) stand alone because they are the only trials of the use of these medications for patients with atrial fibrillation. The results of the secondary prevention trial, EAFT (European Atrial Fibrillation Trial, 1993), are not combined with the other trials' results because the patients enrolled in EAFT were qualitatively too different from those enrolled in the other trials.

Warfarin Versus Placebo
Stroke

The absolute rates of stroke for this comparison are displayed graphically in Figure 46. In this plot, the rates of stroke per 100 patient-years on placebo are plotted along the abscissa, and the rates on warfarin on the axis. As clearly shown on this scatter plot, the rates of stroke on warfarin are significantly below the line of equivalency, except for in the CAFA study (Connolly, Laupacis, Gent et al., 1991), where the confidence interval crosses this line. The absolute rates in both arms are highest in the EAFT (1993) secondary prevention study and lowest in the BAATAF (Boston Area Anticoagulation Trial in Atrial Fibrillation, 1990) group, which had excellent compliance with warfarin therapy.

The odds ratios for the studies comparing warfarin to placebo for the prevention of stroke range from 0.14 (95 percent CI 0.03 to 0.64) in the BAATAF (Boston Area Anti¡coagulation Trial in Atrial Fibrillation, 1990) study to 0.67 (0.23--1.92) in the CAFA (Connolly, Laupacis, Gent et al., 1991) study. In other words, the odds of a stroke in patients in the BAATAF (1990) study who were treated with warfarin were 14 percent of the odds of patients treated with placebo. For these two studies, the baseline stroke rates in the placebo groups were similar (2.98/100 patient-years in the BAATAF [1990] study and 2.7/100 patient-years in the CAFA [Connolly, Laupacis, Gent et al., 1991] study). The BAATAF (1990) group, however, had surprisingly few strokes in the warfarin group, despite similar patient characteristics to those in the CAFA (Connolly, Laupacis, Gent et al., 1991) study group. This is possibly explained by the high percentage of measurements within the target INR range in the BAATAF (1990) study compared with the high percentage below the target range in the CAFA study.

In the EAFT (1993) study, the odds ratio for stroke for warfarin versus placebo was 0.32 (0.18 to 0.56), within the range for the other warfarin studies. However, both arms had very high rates of stroke, with nearly 4/100 patient-years in the warfarin arm and 10/100 patient-years in the placebo arm. Because this was a study of secondary prevention and enrolled high-risk patients, this is not unexpected. The SPAF III (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1996) study, which also enrolled high-risk patients, although fewer patients with a history of stroke, did not have as high a stroke incidence in its warfarin arm. The annual stroke rate in the SPAF III (1996) warfarin group was 1.9/100 patient-years. Presumably previous stroke or transient ischemic attack confers a higher risk for stroke than do the other inclusion criteria for enrollment in the SPAF III (1996) trial. This presumption is supported by the pooled analysis of individual patient data in which the rates of stroke for those patients with a prior history of stroke or transient ischemic attack were at least 50 percent greater than for any other risk factor, regardless of therapy (AFIB Investigators, 1994).

The results of the corresponding pooling of the trial effects are presented graphically in Figure 45. For the warfarin versus placebo comparison, five studies (BAATAF, 1990; CAFA [Connolly, Laupacis, Gent et al., 1991], SPAF I [Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1991], AFASAK I [Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989], and SPINAF [Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992]) were combined to evaluate the effect of warfarin on incident stroke. The total number of subjects on warfarin was 1,204 and on placebo was 1,211. The aggregate odds ratio of stroke is 0.30 (0.19--0.48), which is strong evidence favoring warfarin over placebo for prevention of stroke. With an absolute rate of stroke with warfarin of roughly 2/100 patient-years and with placebo 5/100 patient-years (see Figure 46), the absolute risk reduction is 3 strokes per 100 patient-years. In other words, the number of patients who need to be treated with warfarin instead of placebo to prevent one stroke is about 33.

Peripheral embolism

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   Figure 47. Rates of peripheral embolism

For the outcome of peripheral embolism, four studies compared warfarin to placebo (CAFA [Connolly, Laupacis, Gent et al., 1991], SPAF I [Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1991], AFASAK I [Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989], SPINAF [Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992]). As can be seen in Figure 47, the confidence intervals surrounding the rates of embolism on warfarin are wide because there were few events. AFASAK I did not include the person-years of followup, and thus the rate of embolism could not be calculated for inclusion in Figure 47.

Individually, all of the studies had odds ratios below 1, but none reached statistical significance. The studies were combined for a total of 992 subjects on warfarin and 1,003 on placebo. The aggregate odds ratio, as displayed in Figure 45a for peripheral embolism, was 0.50 (0.19-1.35), again favoring warfarin, although not statistically significant.

Major bleeding

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   Figure 48. Rates of major hemorrhage

All five warfarin versus placebo studies reported the rates of major bleeding. All except the SPAF I (1991) study demonstrated a tendency toward more bleeding with warfarin than with placebo. Figure 48 shows the rates of major hemorrhage in each arm for each study. SPAF I (1991), SPINAF (Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992), and BAATAF (1990) do not appear to have rates that are significantly different in the two arms.

The odds ratios for major bleeding in the studies comparing warfarin to placebo range from a low of 1.0 (0.25--4.07) in SPAF I (1991) to 5.22 (0.60--45) in the CAFA (Connolly, Laupacis, Gent et al., 1991) study. The CAFA participants were above their target INR for 17 percent of the measurements, while the SPAF I (1991) participants were above the range for only 5 percent of the measurements. This difference in anticoagulation level could account for the difference in the bleeding rates. SPINAF (Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992) similarly had 15 percent of the measurements above range but a lower bleeding rate per year than the CAFA (Connolly, Laupacis, Gent et al., 1991) patients, with 1.5 bleeds/patient-year compared with 2.1 bleeds/patient-year (in the warfarin arms). The SPINAF (Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992) patients were all male, and none had a prior stroke or transient ischemic attack, but these features are not known to reduce the bleeding rates. The AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) study had the highest target INR range and had remarkably low bleeding rates, with just one bleed in 334 patients in the warfarin group. The actual time of followup, however, was unclear. The small number of bleeds in all of the placebo arms makes the estimates of the odds ratios highly unstable.

The highest absolute bleeding rate occurred in the EAFT (1993) secondary prevention study, with nearly 6 percent of the warfarin recipients bleeding during the 28 months of followup for a rate of 2.6 bleeds/100 patient-years. As discussed above, the fall risks in this frail group may have been significant, and it is possible that some of the bleeds were trauma related. The patients who need warfarin most for ischemic stroke prevention may, unfortunately, be the ones who most often have bleeding complications.

The rates of cerebral hemorrhage, surprisingly, were not higher in the EAFT (1993) study than in the other studies. No patient on warfarin in this high-risk group had a cerebral hemorrhage. In the other high-risk patient study, SPAF III (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1996), the rate of cerebral hemorrhage was 0.5/100 patient-years. The study with the highest incidence of cerebral bleeding was SPAF II (1994); in the older subgroup the rate was 1.8/100 patient-years on warfarin and 0.8/100 patient-years on aspirin. The other studies ranged from 0 to 0.5/100 patient-years on warfarin, 0 to 0.3/100 patient-years on aspirin, and 0 to 0.28/100 patient-years on placebo.

The result of the meta-analysis for the 1,204 subjects on warfarin and the 1,211 subjects on placebo is an aggregate odds ratio for major bleeding of 1.90 (0.89--4.04), indicating a nonstatistically different higher bleeding rate on warfarin than on placebo. Thus, there is suggestive evidence of a higher rate of major bleeds with warfarin than with placebo. The number of patients to be managed with warfarin that results in one additional major bleed is roughly 133, using an aggregate bleeding rate of 1.5/100 patient-years on warfarin and 0.75/100 patient-years on placebo.

It is important to compare the absolute stroke rates on warfarin and on placebo with the absolute hemorrhage rates in the two arms in order to appreciate the risks and benefits of warfarin. The stroke rates in the placebo arm of the five primary prevention studies were averaged, weighted by the number of person-years in each study. Similarly, the major hemorrhage rates in the placebo arm of four of the studies were averaged, weighted as above. The AFASAK I study (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) did not report the person-years of followup, so its rate was not included. The meta-analysis produced an aggregate odds ratio for stroke and an aggregate odds ratio for hemorrhage for warfarin compared with placebo. We used these odds ratios to calculate an approx¡imation of the average stroke and average hemorrhage rates on warfarin. With such small event states, the odds ratio approximates the rate of zero.

The weighted-average stroke rate on placebo is 44/1,000 person-years, and the calculated stroke rate on warfarin is 14/1,000 person-years. The weighted-average major hemorrhage rate on placebo is 7/1,000 person-years, and the calculated rate on warfarin is 13/1,000 person-years.

Therefore, the literature suggests that the reduction in the rate of strokes on warfarin is approximately 30/1,000 person-years at the expense of six major hemorrhages per 1,000 person-years. If EAFT (1993), the secondary prevention trial, is included in these calculations, approximately 40 strokes/1,000 person-years are prevented with warfarin at the expense of 6 major hemorrhages.

Minor bleeding

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   Figure 49. Rates of minor hemorrhage

Figure 49 clearly shows the higher rates of minor bleeding on warfarin compared with placebo in all of the studies. Because there were more episodes of minor bleeding than any of the other outcomes, the confidence intervals surrounding the estimates of the rates are narrower than for the other outcomes.

Minor bleeding was evaluated in aggregate by combining the four studies that evaluated this outcome (BAATAF [Boston Area Anticoagulation Trial in Atrial Fibrillation], 1990; CAFA [Connolly, Laupacis, Gent et al.], 1991; AFASAK [Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al.], 1989; and SPINAF [Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992]). The aggregate odds ratio for minor bleeding was 2.01 (1.51--2.69), strong evidence for a two-fold increased risk of minor bleeding on warfarin compared with placebo. The difference in absolute rates is approximately 4/100 patient-years.

Total mortality

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   Figure 50. Mortality rates

Mortality was lower on warfarin than placebo in every trial except for the trial in the CAFA (1991) study. The CAFA (1991) study was the primary prevention trial with the highest absolute rates of stroke and major hemorrhage as well. The mortality rates are plotted in Figure 50. The few events result in wide confidence intervals. The greatest absolute mortality benefit with warfarin compared with placebo was in the BAATAF (Boston Area Anticoagulation Trial in Atrial Fibrillation, 1990) study; the mortality rates were 2.26/100 patient-years on warfarin versus 5.95/100 patient-years on placebo, for a difference of 3.7/100 patient-years. BAATAF (1990) was a high-quality study with a high percentage of patients with hypertension and no exclusion for severe hypertension. The target INR range was the lowest of all the trials (1.5--2.7), and the vast majority of measurements were within range (83 percent). The stroke rates and major bleed rates were remarkably low in this trial, suggesting that careful management of warfarin therapy may be a key to improving outcomes and reducing mortality. Whether these rates are attainable in practice, rather than in a trial setting, will require further study. In the secondary prevention trial, EAFT (1993), there was no mortality benefit for warfarin compared with placebo.

For total mortality, three studies were combined (BAATAF [Boston Area Anticoagulation Trial in Atrial Fibrillation], 1990; CAFA, 1993; and SPAF I [Stroke Prevention in Atrial in Atrial Fibrillation], 1991). SPINAF (Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992) and AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) did not report mortality data. The summary odds ratio reflects 609 subjects on warfarin and 610 on placebo. There was a decreased risk of death with warfarin that nearly reached statistical significance, with an aggregate odds ratio of 0.62 (0.38--1.02). This indicates that an increase in total mortality with warfarin is unlikely and that there may be up to a 60 percent decrease in total mortality when patients with atrial fibrillation use warfarin. The absolute rate difference is approximately 0.75/100 patient-years, meaning that 133 patients need to receive warfarin rather than placebo to prevent one death.

The use of adjusted-dose warfarin likely requires careful attention to the INR. The optimal INR was studied retrospectively in the EAFT participants who had been randomized to anticoagulation (van Latum, Koudstaal, Venables et al., 1995). Event rates were calculated by dividing the number of events by the time each patient spent in each range of anticoagulation intensity. Among these participants, all of whom had a previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, the optimal INR was from 2.0 to 3.9. The optimal INR for primary prevention is unknown.

Aspirin Versus Placebo
Stroke

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   Figure 51. Rates of stroke

Three studies evaluated aspirin versus placebo for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. The EAFT (1993) study was a secondary prevention study, and it had high stroke rates in both treatment arms, as shown in Figure 51. The stroke rates in the other two studies, SPAF I (1991) and AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989), were quite similar in the placebo arms, but the stroke rate was notably less in the SPAF I aspirin group. This difference may be a result of the aspirin dosage. AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) used only 75 mg daily, whereas SPAF I (1991) used 325 mg daily. For these three studies, the odds ratios were 0.54 (0.32--0.92) in SPAF I (1991), 0.89 (0.64--1.24) in the EAFT (1993) study, and 0.93 (0.45--1.92) in AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989). One possible conclusion is that aspirin is more efficacious than placebo only in younger patients, such as the SPAF I (1991) participants. Also, the SPAF I (1991) study had the highest dose of aspirin (325 mg daily) of all of the trials. As mentioned above, the AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) trial used only 75 mg of aspirin daily, which may explain the low efficacy of aspirin in this trial. The results of the EAFT (1993) study suggest that aspirin is likely to be insufficient for secondary prevention of stroke.

The incident stroke rate on aspirin compared with placebo was evaluated by combining two studies, AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) and SPAF I (1991). EAFT (1993) was not included because it was a secondary prevention trial. There were 888 patients in the aspirin arms and 904 in the placebo arms. The aggregate odds ratio is 0.65 (0.43--0.99), strong evidence of a benefit of aspirin over placebo in prevention of stroke in atrial fibrillation. The absolute rate reduction is roughly 1.25/100 patient-years. This is considerably less than the reduction seen with warfarin compared with placebo, which was 3/100 patient-years.

Peripheral embolism

Combining the same two studies to evaluate peripheral embolism found no difference in the rates between the two treatments, with an aggregate odds ratio of 1.02 (0.33--3.17). The studies had few events, and neither demonstrated a difference in peripheral embolism rate between study arms.

Major hemorrhage

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   Figure 52. Rates of major hemorrhage

Figure 52 shows the rates of major hemorrhage in SPAF I (1991) and EAFT (1993). The EAFT (1993) study had surprisingly low hemorrhage rates in both arms with an aspirin dose of 300 mg daily. The yearly rate of hemorrhage in the AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) study is not depicted because followup time was not explicitly reported for this outcome. In SPAF I (1991), aspirin did not confer any greater risk of bleeding than did placebo (OR = 0.73 [0.51--1.22]), nor did it in the EAFT (1993) trial (OR = 1.41 [0.42--4.68]).

Combining these studies, the aggregate odds ratio of major bleeding for aspirin compared with placebo is 0.81 (0.37--1.77), which indicates no significant risk or benefit from aspirin. The AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) study, notably, had only a single event.

Minor hemorrhage

Only AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) reported minor bleeding, which was rare in both the aspirin and placebo treatment arms.

Total mortality

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   Figure 53. Mortality rates

Only SPAF I (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1991) and EAFT (1993) reported total mortality. In both studies there was little difference in mortality rates in the two treatment arms, as is shown in Figure 53. The odds ratio for death in SPAF I (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1991) was 0.79 (0.51--1.22), as shown in Figure 45, which is suggestive evidence for the efficacy of aspirin compared with placebo.

Warfarin Versus Aspirin
Stroke

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   Figure 54. Rates of stroke

Only three studies directly compared warfarin and aspirin: SPAF II (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1994), which stratified subjects into younger and older age groups; AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989); and AFASAK II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998). Figure 54 illustrates the rates of stroke with the two treatments. The stroke rate on warfarin in the AFASAK II trial slightly exceeded that in the aspirin arm, but this trial was terminated early. Among the SPAF II participants, a lower rate of stroke on warfarin than on aspirin was suggested for both age groups, despite markedly different rates in the two age groups.

Within SPAF II (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1994), the odds ratio for stroke, for warfarin compared with aspirin, was 0.67 (0.33--1.38) for both the younger and older age groups, separately, with similar confidence intervals. This provides suggestive evidence for a benefit of warfarin compared with aspirin. The degree of compliance with warfarin therapy in SPAF II (1994) was good with only 20 percent of the measurements below the target INR range. The SPAF II (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1994) group that was under 75 years old had the youngest mean age of any of the trials, 65 years, with very low stroke rates in both arms (1.18/100 patient-years versus 1.75/100 patient-years). This suggests that there may be little absolute, incremental gain with warfarin compared with aspirin in young patients. The number needed to treat with warfarin to prevent one stroke is 175. In the older group, the stroke rate in the warfarin group was comparable to the rates in the SPAF I (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1991), CAFA (1991), AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989), and EAFT's (1993) warfarin groups (3.3/100 patient-years). The group receiving aspirin fared not quite as well (4.8 strokes/100 patient-years). The number needed to treat with warfarin to prevent one stroke is 66, considerably less than in the younger group.

In the AFASAK II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998) study, which was terminated early, the odds ratio for stroke was 1.12 (0.42--2.99) for the warfarin to aspirin comparison, indicating little difference. The stroke rates in this study were consistent with what was anticipated in this moderate-risk group (2.7 /100 patient-years in the warfarin group versus 2.2/100 patient-years on aspirin).

For the pooled analysis of warfarin and aspirin, the results from SPAF II (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1994) were combined with AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) and AFASAK II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998). The SPAF II study stratified the participants by age and then randomized, so in essence these were two separate trials. Along with the AFASAK I (1989) and AFASAK II (1998) subjects, 1,060 participants were on warfarin and 1,050 on aspirin. For stroke, the aggregate odds ratio is 0.64 (0.43--0.96). Thus, moderate evidence indicates a decrease in stroke with warfarin compared with aspirin. This suggests that warfarin may be more efficacious than aspirin in preventing stroke but does not allow for strong conclusions.

Peripheral embolism

For this outcome, the aggregate odds ratio for warfarin compared with aspirin is 1.27 (0.31--5.16), providing inconclusive evidence of any significant difference between therapies for peripheral embolism.

Major hemorrhage

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   Figure 55. Rates of major hemorrhage

As shown in Figure 55, the major hemorrhage rate was higher with warfarin than with aspirin in the younger SPAF II (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1994) subjects and among the AFASAK II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998) subjects. The SPAF II older participants had similar bleeding rates in the two treatment arms, which was likely a result of the relatively high bleeding rate on aspirin because the bleeding rate on warfarin was comparable to that in the other trials. The absolute bleeding rates were considerably higher in the older patients than in younger patients. The high bleeding rate in both arms in the older group is thought to be possibly related to patient characteristics, including prevalent hypertension, or the intensity of anticoagulation (Sweeney, Gray, Evans et al., 1996). The absolute bleeding rates are less than the stroke rates in all of the trials, in both treatment arms.

The SPAF II (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1994) trial had an odds ratio for major bleeding of 3.0 (0.61--15) for the younger patients and 2.3 (0.8--8.9) for the older patients for warfarin compared with aspirin. For both groups, this is suggestive evidence of an increased risk of bleeding with warfarin. In AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) and AFASAK II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998), warfarin did not confer a higher risk of bleeding than aspirin.

The aggregate odds ratio for major bleeding is 1.60 (0.77--3.35), indicating only suggestive evidence for an increase in major bleeding with warfarin compared with aspirin.

Total mortality

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   Figure 56. Mortality rates

Interestingly, in the SPAF II (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1994) study, the younger patients (under 75 years old) had a greater absolute mortality benefit with warfarin compared with aspirin than did the older group, in which there was little mortality benefit, as shown in Figure 56. The younger group had a higher percentage of "nonvascular" deaths than the older group, suggesting that a greater percentage of deaths in the younger group may have been unrelated to therapy. The aggregate odds ratio, however, is 0.96 (0.58--1.58), suggesting no overall mortality difference. The mortality rates in the AFASAK II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998) trial were high in both arms, which could be attributed to the high percentage of patients enrolled with congestive heart failure.

Adjusted-Dose Warfarin Versus Low-Dose Warfarin Plus Aspirin
Stroke

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   Figure 57. Rates of stroke

The first trial of warfarin versus low-dose warfarin combined with aspirin was SPAF III (1996). The yearly incidence of stroke was low in the warfarin-treated patients (1.90/100 patient-years), even though this group had been selected for high-risk features. The stroke rate for the low-dose warfarin plus aspirin group was high (7.74/100 patient-years). This is displayed in Figure 57. Interestingly, this rate falls within the range of the rates in the placebo arms of the moderate-risk SPAF I (1991) and the high-risk EAFT (1993) trials. Although there was no direct comparison with aspirin in this trial, the rate in this combination arm was higher than the rate on aspirin alone in other trials. For example, the yearly stroke incidence was 4.79/100 patient-years in the older group of the SPAF II (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1994) trial. The SPAF III (1996) participants were higher-risk patients than the SPAF II participants, but this difference in rates remains striking. SPAF III (1996) was terminated early because of the high stroke rate in this arm.

The second trial of warfarin versus the combination of low-dose warfarin and aspirin was AFASAK II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998). The stroke rate in the warfarin-treated patients (2.7/100 patient-years) was slightly higher than in the SPAF III (1996) study, while the rate in the combination arm (2.9/100 patient-years) was much lower than in SPAF III. The rates in the two treatment arms were clearly similar. This trial was terminated early because of the results of SPAF III (1996), so it is hard to know if the rates in the two arms would have diverged. There was not a placebo arm in this trial, so it is hard to say if the rates were low because of the characteristics of the patients enrolled. The AFASAK II (1998) participants appear to be a moderate-risk group, based on their characteristics.

The meta-analysis of this data included 693 patients in the adjusted-dose warfarin arm and 692 in the combination therapy arm. The odds ratio for stroke was 0.35 (0.21--0.59), strong evidence for a large reduction in the risk of stroke with adjusted-dose warfarin compared with aspirin plus low-dose warfarin. However, much of this apparent benefit comes exclusively from the SPAF III (1996) study because the odds ratio for AFASAK II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998) alone was 0.81. The high-risk SPAF III (1996) participants, with an excessively high stroke rate on combination therapy, likely explain this impressive result. The evidence supporting use of the combination therapy in lower risk patients is weak because it is based only on the results of AFASAK II, where there was no difference between the treatment arms.

Peripheral embolism

The odds ratio for peripheral embolism was 1.00 (0.17--5.8), with only two events in each arm.

Major hemorrhage

There was some difference in the rate of major bleeding between the therapies, as shown in Figure 58. There was a higher rate of bleeding on warfarin than on combination therapy in the AFASAK II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998) study, but the aggregate odds ratio for major bleeding is 1.14 (0.55--2.4), indicating no increased risk of major bleeding with adjusted-dose warfarin compared with combination therapy.

Minor bleeding and mortality

The minor bleeding rate was higher with warfarin; the aggregate odds ratio is 1.68 (0.98--2.9), which is fairly strong evidence. Total mortality was not different between the two groups; the aggregate odds ratio is 1.02 [0.68--1.5].

Warfarin Versus Indobufen and Low Molecular Weight Heparin Versus Placebo
Stroke

The trial that compared warfarin to indobufen (Morocutti, Amabile, Fattapposta et al., 1997), an antiplatelet agent that is a specific COX-2 cycloxygenase-inhibitor, had a risk ratio for stroke of 0.55 (0.24--1.14), fairly similar to the aggregate warfarin versus aspirin ratio, as might be expected. This trial was a secondary prevention trial, whereas the warfarin versus aspirin trials were not.

The one study that used low molecular weight heparin (Harenberg, Weuster, Pfitzer et al., 1993) rather than warfarin as the anticoagulant had an odds ratio for stroke of 0.34 (0--1.62) compared with placebo. The absolute rates are unclear because the followup time was not explicitly stated. The relative risk reduction seen with this drug appears to be similar to the risk reduction with warfarin, although the evidence is only suggestive.

Major hemorrhage

In the warfarin versus indobufen study (Morocutti, Amabile, Fattapposta et al., 1997), there were more major bleeds on warfarin than on indobufen (5/454 versus 1/462), although this was not statistically significant. In the low molecular weight heparin study (Harenberg, Weuster, Pfitzer et al., 1993), neither group had any major bleeding episodes.

Total mortality

There was no mortality benefit for warfarin over indobufen (Morocutti, Amabile, Fattapposta et al., 1997). For low molecular weight heparin (Harenberg, Weuster, Pfitzer et al., 1993) compared with placebo, evidence suggested a mortality benefit with an odds ratio of death of 0.55 (0.18--1.63). The death rates, however, in this trial were remarkably high, with 28 percent of the patients on placebo dying in the 5 months of followup. This population was markedly different from those in the other trials; the mean age of the patients on placebo was 84 years, and one-third were diabetic. Not only was the population in this trial unlike that of the other trials, but the population in each of the arms differed. The low molecular weight heparin group was younger (mean age of 79 years) and more likely to have had a previous stroke or transient ischemic attack than the placebo group.

Subgroup Analysis
Subgroup analysis by study characteristics

The studies using adjusted-dose warfarin were grouped according to the target INR range, with the assumption that those studies with a higher range may have achieved fewer strokes but at the expense of more bleeding. The results of this analysis indicate that this was not the case. The three studies with an INR target range with a maximum value under 4.0 showed a benefit in stroke prevention with warfarin similar to the benefit for the two studies that had target INR ranges with maximum values greater than or equal to 4.0; aggregate odds ratio was 0.28 (0.15--0.54) versus 0.32 (0.16--0.64), respectively. This is shown in Figures 59a and 59b. The bleeding risk with the higher target INRs was not higher than with the lower ranges; the aggregate odds ratio was 1.23 (0.35--4.32) versus 2.40 (0.92--6.29), respectively. Similarly, there was little difference in the odds ratios for mortality when comparing studies with different INR target ranges. It is possible that the actual time spent at the target INR, as well as above and below the target range, is more important than the goal INR specified. However, linear regression of stroke rates versus percentage of measurements below target INR did not suggest that this was an important predictor (p = 0.37). There was only a weak correlation between stroke rate and percentage of time spent within the target INR (correlation coefficient = 0.34).

Subgroup analyses in individual trials in meta-analysis

Table 3. Subgroup Analysis Within Individual Trials
StudySubgroupTherapyRates of Stroke and Peripheral Embolism (per 100 patient-years)
SPAF II, 1994Under 76 yearsWith risk factors 1Warfarin1.5
Aspirin2.9
Without risk factorsWarfarin1.0
Aspirin0.5
Over 75 yearsWith risk factorsWarfarin4.2
Aspirin7.2
Without risk factorsWarfarin2.5
Aspirin1.8
SPAF III, 1996Previous strokeWarfarin3.4
Combination 211.9
LV dysfunctionWarfarinNR
Combination4.2
Women >75 yearsWarfarinNR
Combination11.5 although only 5.7 if no other high-risk features
High-risk features excluding stroke 1Warfarin1.1
Combination5.3
SPINAF (Ezekowitz et al., 1992)With previous strokeWarfarin6.1
Placebo9.3
Without previous strokeWarfarin2.0
Placebo3.6
1

Risk factors are defined as history of hypertension, previous thromboembolism, or recent heart failure.

2

Combination therapy is aspirin (300 mg daily) and low-dose warfarin.

NR = not reported

Few of the studies presented subgroup analyses. Those that did are described below, but combination of the results was not possible because most of the studies did not report absolute numbers, only rates. These results are summarized in Table 3.

SPAF II (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1994) presents an analysis of patients with and without clinical risk factors for thromboembolism (history of hypertension, previous thromboembolism, or recent heart failure). In the patients under 76 years old, the primary event rate (stroke and peripheral embolism) on warfarin was 1.5 (0.8--2.9) per 100 patient-years and on aspirin 2.9 (1.9--4.6) per 100 patient-years for those with risk factors. For those without risk factors, the rates were 1.0 (0.4--2.4) and 0.5 (0.1--1.9) per 100 patient-years for warfarin and aspirin, respectively. In the patients over 75 years old, the primary event rates with risk factors were 4.2 (2.3--7.9) and 7.2 (4.3--11.9) per 100 patient-years, and withoutrisk factors the rates were 2.5 (1.0--6.8) and 1.8 (0.6--5.5) per 100 patient-years for warfarin and aspirin, respectively.

SPAF III (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1996) reports the outcome of primary events (ischemic stroke or peripheral embolism) stratified by high-risk features for those patients receiving combination therapy (low-dose warfarin and aspirin) and for selected subgroups on warfarin. For patients with a previous thromboembolic event, the rate was 11.9/100 patient-years on combination therapy and 3.4/100 patient-years on warfarin (p = 0.002). For patients with impaired left ventricular function, the rate was 4.2/100 patient-years on combination therapy. For women over 75 years of age, the rate was 11.5/100 patient-years on combination therapy, although if they had no other high-risk features, the rate was 5.7 per 100 patient-years. Patients without a history of previous thromboembolism but who had other high-risk features had lower event rates than those with previous thromboembolism-5.3/100 patient-years on combination therapy and 1.1/100 per patient-years on warfarin (p = 0.001). The bleeding rates and mortality rates for these high-risk subgroups are not presented, nor are the absolute numbers of events.

The SPINAF (Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992) investigators reported in their study a subgroup analysis of patients with previous strokes. The rate of stroke for those on warfarin was 6.1 per 100 patient-years (2 of 21 patients) and for those on placebo the rate was 9.3 per 100 patient-years (4 of 25 patients). For patients without a history of stroke, the rates were 2.0 per 100 patient-years on warfarin and 3.6 per 100 patient-years on placebo.

The AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) investigators reported that they found no significant age difference between patients with and without thromboembolic complications (p > 0.90), regardless of treatment group. No other subgroup analysis was done.

In the BAATAF (Boston Area Anticoagulation Trial in Atrial Fibrillation, 1990) study, it was reported that the number of strokes was similar in the subgroups analyzed; that is, there was no difference in rates between those with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and chronic atrial fibrillation. Also, there was no association between stroke rate and left-atrial size, sex, duration of atrial fibrillation, or hypertension. The investigators caution, however, that the overall stroke rates were low, so that subgroup analysis was unlikely to demonstrate differences. They did find that age was associated with stroke, as was mitral annular calcification. No subgroup analysis was done for any other outcome.

Implications of the subgroup analyses

From these subgroup analyses, it is clear that the presence of risk factors for thromboembolism raises the stroke event rate, regardless of therapy. The stroke risk is higher for patients with a previous history of stroke than for those with other risk factors. Most studies found that age is a risk factor for thromboembolic events, although AFASAK I (Petersen, Boysen, Godtfredsen et al., 1989) did not. No study presented the bleeding complications by subgroup.

Other studies have identified low-risk groups from prospective, observational studies of atrial fibrillation. A recent study from the SPAF investigators aimed to identify a group at low risk of stroke during treatment with aspirin (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998). They recruited patients without the high-risk features required for inclusion in the SPAF III trial (patients without hypertension, patients without a low ejection fraction or prior stroke or transient ischemic attack, and women younger than 75 years old or men of any age). They excluded patients with "lone" atrial fibrillation as they are at markedly low risk for thromboembolism. These 892 participants were placed on aspirin and followed over time. The rate of primary events (stroke or peripheral embolism) was 2.2 (0.6--3.0) per 100 patient-years. A subgroup analysis of those with a history of hypertension had a stroke rate of 3.6 (2.5--5.2) per 100 patient-years compared with a rate of 1.1 (0.6--2.0) per 100 patient-years for those without a history of hypertension. The history of hypertension was a significant predictor of events, with a relative risk of 3.3 (1.7--6.9) if present versus absent. Similarly, age was a significant predictor of events, with a relative risk of 1.7 (1.1--2.6) for every decade increase in age. The rate of major bleeding in this cohort was 0.7/100 patient-years.

These results are consistent with the results from the subgroup analyses in the SPAF II (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1994) trial. In SPAF II, the rates on aspirin were 0.5 per 100 patient-years for the younger patients and 1.8 per 100 patient-years for the older patient group. The event rate for the group with a history of hypertension in this observational study, 3.6 percent, is fairly similar to the 2.9 percent rate in the SPAF II younger patients having risk factors.

An appropriate question raised in this cohort study is whether the event rate of 2.2 per 100 patient-years is low enough, or if the reduction in stroke rate with warfarin is worth the bleeding risk and expense. The group without a history of hypertension is unlikely to benefit from warfarin as the rate is already close to the general population rate without atrial fibrillation.

Summary and Overall Implications of the Evidence

The strength of the evidence is graded as described in Chapter 2 (Methodology, Presentation, and Interpretation of the Results) and is repeated here for clarity. Strong evidence of the efficacy of anticoagulation is where the OR is < 1.0 and the 99 percent CI does not include 1.0 (p < 0.01). Moderate evidence of efficacy is where the OR is < 1.0 and the 95 percent CI does not include 1.0, but the 99 percent CI does include 1.0 (0.01 < p < 0.05). Suggestive evidence of efficacy is where the 95 percent CI includes 1.0 in the upper tail and the OR is in a clinically meaningful range. Inconclusive evidence of efficacy is where the 95 percent CI is widely distributed around 1.0, and strong evidence of lack of efficacy is where the 95 percent CI is narrow and around 1.0.

With these classifications, the implications regarding the efficacy of the drug studies for primary and secondary prevention of non-postoperative atrial fibrillation are as follows.

Warfarin compared with placebo

Warfarin is more efficacious than placebo in both the primary and secondary prevention of stroke, based on strong evidence available in these clinical trials. For patients at high risk for stroke, such as those patients who have previously suffered a stroke, the absolute reduction in risk of stroke is between 3 and 6 strokes per 100 patient-years. For patients at lower risk of stroke, the absolute reduction in risk of stroke is likely between 1.5 and 3 strokes per 100 patient-years.

In the previously cited pooled analysis of individual patient data, patients under 65 years with no risk factors for stroke had low and equivalent rates of stroke with warfarin and placebo, 1 per 100 patient-years (AFIB Investigators, 1994). There have been no randomized clinical trials designed to study antithrombotic therapy in "lone atrial fibrillation" specifically; thus, the strength of the evidence regarding treatment of these patients is minimal. Supporting no anticoagulant, however, is an earlier review of the patients with lone atrial fibrillation enrolled in the BAATAF (Boston Area Anticoagulation Trial in Atrial Fibrillation, 1990), SPAF I (1991), and SPINAF (Ezekowitz, Bridgers, James et al., 1992) trials, which found acceptably low stroke rates in the placebo arms of these trials (Laupacis, Albers, Dunn et al., 1992). Therefore, for patients at low risk of stroke (younger patients with no structural cardiac disease, no comorbid conditions, and no history of hypertension), the absolute reduction in risk of stroke with warfarin compared with placebo is too low to recommend the use of warfarin.

In all of the trials, however, the bleeding rates on warfarin exceeded those on placebo, with the highest bleeding rate on warfarin in the secondary prevention study. There is only suggestive evidence for a higher major bleeding rate with warfarin compared with placebo. However, the evidence is strong for an increase in minor bleeding with warfarin. Despite this, for patients at an average risk of bleeding, the incidence of bleeding for patients treated with warfarin is less than the incidence of stroke if not treated with warfarin, which supports the use of warfarin. For every 1,000 patients with atrial fibrillation who are treated with warfarin for 1 year, 30 strokes are prevented at the expense of 6 major bleeds. There is strong evidence that for secondary stroke prevention, the same conclusion holds: the number of strokes prevented with warfarin exceeds the number of major bleeds. This recommendation needs to be individualized for patients at higher risk of bleeding, such as those with coagulopathies, renal failure, alcoholism, or a significant fall risk.

Among all of the trials, there was only the suggestion of a mortality benefit on warfarin compared with placebo, so this in itself is not an appropriate justification for therapy.

The evidence supporting these conclusions has been presented in this section on Efficacy of Anticoagulants and Antiplatelet Agents (Results of the Trials, Warfarin versus placebo), in Figures 45--50, and in Evidence Table 9.

Aspirin compared with placebo

The evidence allows less definitive conclusions regarding the efficacy of aspirin in stroke prevention in non-postoperative atrial fibrillation. Aspirin is not more efficacious than placebo in secondary prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation, nor is it effective at low dosages (75 mg). It may have a role in primary prevention, however, such as in patients who have absolute contraindications to warfarin. There is moderate evidence that aspirin is beneficial at 325 mg daily compared with placebo, in patients with lower stroke risk, where the aggregate odds ratio for stroke was 0.65 (0.043--0.99). The evidence regarding major bleeding is inconclusive. Although based on only one study, there is suggestive evidence for a small mortality benefit with aspirin.

The evidence supporting these conclusions has been presented in the Efficacy of Anticoagulants and Antiplatelets Agents section (Results of the Trials, under Aspirin versus Placebo), Figures 45 and 51--53, and Evidence Tables 8 and 9.

Warfarin compared with aspirin

If we conclude that warfarin is efficacious compared with placebo and that aspirin is moderately efficacious compared with placebo, the next question to answer is whether aspirin is as efficacious as warfarin for primary or secondary prevention of stroke. The lack of a difference between treatments in a clinical trial always raises the question of whether the trial had adequate power to demonstrate a difference. It is harder to demonstrate statistically in a clinical trial that two drugs are equivalent than it is to demonstrate that they are different, so strong evidence that warfarin and aspirin are equivalent will be hard to acquire.

Notably, only three trials have directly compared warfarin to aspirin, one of which was terminated early. Overall, there is moderate evidence that warfarin is more efficacious in stroke reduction than aspirin. In SPAF II, the absolute decrease in incidence of stroke was only 1.7 per 100 patient-years with warfarin compared with aspirin in the group under 75 years old, although it was 3.0 per 100 patient-years less in those over 75 years old. Whether an absolute decrease in incidence of 1.7 per 100 patient-years is clinically meaningful is debatable and depends on the associated complications. There is suggestive evidence of more major bleeding in the warfarin arm in both age groups within SPAF II (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Study, 1994), but the absolute increase in bleeding is small. In the younger group, the increased rate of major hemorrhage on warfarin is only 0.4 per 100 patient-years, far below the absolute increase in rate of stroke without warfarin. In the AFASAK II (Gullov, Koefoed, Petersen et al., 1998) study, the rate of stroke on warfarin slightly exceeded that for aspirin, with the suggestion of a higher mortality rate with warfarin than aspirin.

The supporting evidence has been presented in the Efficacy of Anticoagulants and Antiplatelet Agents section (Results of the Trials, under Warfarin versus Aspirin), Figures 45 and 54--56, and Evidence Table 9. Because the evidence from trials directly comparing warfarin and aspirin does not permit strong conclusions, it is useful to consider the trials that independently compared warfarin to placebo and aspirin to placebo. There is very strong evidence supporting the superiority of warfarin over placebo for stroke prevention, at some hemorrhagic expense, and suggestive evidence supporting the efficacy of aspirin over placebo. At this time, the conclusion remains that warfarin is superior to aspirin for primary prevention of stroke in atrial fibrillation and clearly superior for secondary stroke prevention, despite a greater risk of hemorrhage. More studies of this topic are indicated, with attention to identifying a subgroup for whom aspirin may be appropriate therapy, before stronger conclusions can be made supporting the routine use of aspirin for primary prevention. The evidence does not support the use of a combination of low-dose warfarin with aspirin. It was inferior to adjusted-dose warfarin for primary stroke prevention, and the evidence regarding major bleeding and mortality is inconclusive. It is possible that a lower-risk population than those in which this combination was studied could benefit from this regimen, but this has not been adequately studied. It is highly unlikely that low-dose warfarin with aspirin is an acceptable regimen for secondary stroke prevention because it was ineffective for primary prevention.

This evidence is described in detail in the Efficacy of Anticoagulants and Antiplatelet Agents section (Results of the Trials, Adjusted-Dose Warfarin Versus Low-Dose Warfarin Plus Aspirin); in Figures 45, 57, and 58; and in Evidence Table 9.

Other drugs studied for stroke prevention

The evidence does not support that low molecular weight heparin is superior to placebo for stroke prevention, although only one small trial has been conducted. In this trial, there was suggestive evidence that the mortality rate may be higher with low molecular weight heparin than with placebo. In another trial, there was suggestive evidence that warfarin is more efficacious than indobufen in the secondary prevention of stroke but with suggestion of a greater bleeding risk and inconclusive evidence regarding a mortality benefit. Indobufen has not been studied for primary stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation.

This evidence is presented in the Efficacy of Anticoagulants and Antiplatelet Agents section (Results of the Trials, under Warfarin Versus Indobufen and Low Mole¡cular Weight Heparin Versus Placebo), in Figure 45, and in Evidence Tables 8 and 9.

Clinical Applicability

These studies have been criticized for their generalizability given the stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria. Furthermore, there is always the concern that the heterogeneity of participants within a trial is never completely adjusted for with randomization and that the outcomes, particularly with binary events, are strongly influenced by the inclusion of a small number of particularly high-risk patients (Ioannidis and Lau, 1997). For example, applying these results to an elderly patient with rheumatic valvular disease is invalid, as patients with valvular disease were uniformly excluded from participation. Similarly, these results may be inappropriately applied to a healthy patient in whom the absolute reduction in the risk of stroke with therapy may be far less than for those enrolled in these trials. For the most part, however, the trials enrolled subjects with atrial fibrillation and significant comorbidities, such as congestive heart failure and hypertension. Except for those trials that were secondary prevention trials, the characteristics of the enrolled patients in the other trials were remarkably similar, which probably indicates that these were representative samples of all patients with atrial fibrillation. Therefore, the results of this pooled analysis should be widely applicable.

The design features of a clinical trial that result in the best possible outcomes can be replicated to some extent in practice. In the trials reviewed here, the percentage of time in the target INR was not statistically associated with better outcomes, but the trials with very low and with very high percentages of time within the target range had event rates as might be anticipated. Therefore, efforts to refine the management of a patient's INR, such as with the use of anticoagulation clinics, may result in better outcomes (Chiquette, Amato, and Bussey, 1998). Evaluation of home-monitoring systems for measuring prothrombin times is eagerly awaited.

Echocardiography

Echocardiography has three potential roles in the management of AF-prediction of successful acute conversion of AF and subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm, prediction of embolic events in chronic AF, and guidance of timing for acute cardio¡version. From our comprehensive literature search of clinical trials, no completed trials were identified that directly addressed the clinical utility of echocardiography in the management of AF. Therefore, evidence on the role of echocardiography in the management of AF was assessed indirectly for each potential role.

First, the ability of echocardiography to predict the likelihood of successful conversion was addressed by reviewing those randomized clinical trials that reported outcome based on left-atrial diameter. Of the 46 studies evaluating acute cardioversion identified in our comprehensive search, only 6 gave information relating left-atrial diameter from echocardiography to success of conversion. Three of these studies reported mean left-atrial sizes in patients stratified by success of cardioversion. One of these studies (Bellandi, Cantini, Pedone et al., 1995) showed a significantly smaller mean left atrium in those with successful cardioversion than those with unsuccessful conversion. One study (Tommaso, McDonough, Parker et al., 1983) showed a substantial difference in left-atrial size (3.8 mm in patients with successful conversion compared with 4.3 mm in patients with unsuccessful conversion), but the numbers were small (13 total). The final study in this group (Kingma and Suttorp, 1992) showed no difference in left-atrial size between patients with successful and unsuccessful conversion. However, this last study may have been confounded by the fact that left-atrial size was smaller and conversion less likely in the placebo group compared with the treatment groups. The other 3 of the 6 studies evaluating acute conversion success rates reported these rates stratified by left-atrial size (Stroobandt, Stiels, and Hoebrechts, 1997; Stambler, Wood, Ellenbogen et al., 1996; Zehender, Hohnloser, Muller et al., 1992). All three of these studies showed a significantly lower success rate in those with larger left-atrial diameters (defined as "enlarged," <40 mm, or <55 mm, respectively). Overall, when reported, there appears to be a relationship between smaller left-atrial size and acute conversion success.

Of all the studies evaluating maintenance of sinus rhythm, only two studies reported on the relationship between left-atrial size and efficacy. One study (Bellandi, Dabazzi, Niccoli et al., 1995) showed a significantly larger left atrium in the patients with recurrent AF for all three treatment groups (propafenone, sotalol, and placebo). The other study (Van Gelder, Crijns, Van Gilst et al., 1989) reported that the predictive power of left-atrial size for efficacy did not reach statistical significance after controlling for New York Heart Class and Flecainide treatment. Thus, the evidence is mixed regarding the association between left-atrial size and maintenance of sinus rhythm.

Second, the ability of both transthoracic echocardiography and transesophageal echocardiography to predict embolic events in patients with AF has been addressed indirectly in many of the large randomized clinical trials testing one or more anti¡thrombotic agents. The Atrial Fibrillation Investigators (1994) pooled the individual patient results from three trials and stratified them by age, risk factor status, and echocardiographic left-ventricular function. They showed that abnormal left-ventricular function in otherwise low-risk patients increased the risk of stroke from 0.4 percent per year to 9.3 percent per year. However, only 10 of the 167 patients had abnormal left-ventricular function. In the absence of other studies on this issue, we decided that the most appropriate method for analyzing the value of measuring left-ventricular function in patients with AF was through decision analysis. The results of this decision analysis are presented in Chapter 8.

Third, the use of transesophageal echocardiography to guide timing of acute cardioversion for patients with AF has been the subject of considerable debate. Although our comprehensive literature search of clinical trials did not identify any previous trials that directly addressed this question, the Assessment of Cardioversion Using Transesophageal Echocardiography (ACUTE) randomized controlled clinical trial (Klein, Grimm, Black et al., 1997) currently is under way. This trial is testing the hypothesis that a strategy consisting of immediate cardioversion in AF patients after 3 days of anti¡coagulation with no thrombus on transesophageal echocardiography will be safer than the conventional strategy of 3 weeks of anticoagulation before cardioversion.

Outpatient Initiation of Antiarrhythmic Therapy

Our search of the clinical trial literature did not identify any trials that directly addressed the question about the safety and cost-effectiveness of outpatient versus inpatient initiation of antiarrhythmia therapy for AF. The clinical trials that we reviewed often reported the frequency of ventricular arrhythmia. However, not all trials reported it, and no trials gave a full accounting of the timing of the ventricular arrhythmia. Please see the evidence tables for acute conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm for the proportions of ventricular arrhythmia for each trial (Evidence Tables 1-5). A search of the literature outside of clinical trials also did not identify a study that directly addressed this issue. Two relevant observational studies were identified.

A study of consecutive patients admitted to a university hospital with atrial fibrillation for initiation of pharmacological therapy (Maisel, Kuntz, Reimold et al., 1997) revealed only 1 episode of torsade de pointes in 597 drug trials. However, there were 7 episodes of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia and 72 other cardiac adverse events. Overall, the rate of cardiac adverse events per 100 patient days was 7.0 for the first 24-hour period, 3.8 for the second 24-hour period, and 3.3 for the third 24-hour period. The authors interpret these results to indicate support for initiation of pharma¡cological therapy in the hospital setting. However, because all the patients from this trial were hospitalized, no strong conclusions can be made regarding outpatient initiation of pharmacological therapy.

Another study (Chung, Schweikert, Wilkoff et al., 1998) reviewed the records of 120 patients admitted to the hospital for initiation of sotalol therapy. They found "25 patients (20.8 percent) experienced 35 complications, triggering therapy changes during the hospital period in 21 (17.5 percent). New or increased ventricular arrhythmias developed in 7 patients (5.8 percent) (torsade de pointes in 2), significant bradycardia in 20 (16.7 percent), and excessively prolonged corrected QT intervals in 8 (6.7 percent)."

As with the other questions that could not be answered directly, we addressed this question in the decision analysis. However, the data on antiarrhythmic therapy outside a hospital setting are too sparse to allow any meaningful analysis on the safety of this strategy. Instead, in sensitivity analysis, we assessed how the costs associated with inpatient initiation of antiarrhythmic therapy would influence the cost-effectiveness of the various strategies in the management of AF, assuming no difference in safety.

Chapter 4. Conclusions

Summary of Findings

Pharmacological Conversion of AF

Strong Evidence of Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

The antiarrhythmic agents with the strongest evidence of efficacy for conversion of AF were flecainide (OR 24.7, CI 9.0 to 68) and ibutilide/dofetilide (OR 29.1, CI 9.8 to 86). Strong evidence of efficacy also existed for propafenone (OR 4.6, CI 2.6 to 8.2).

Moderate Evidence of Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

There was moderate evidence of efficacy for quinidine compared with control treatment (OR 2.9, CI 1.2 to 7.0), for conversion of AF.

Suggestive Evidence of Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

Disopyramide (OR 7.0, CI 0.3 to 152) and amiodarone (OR 5.7, CI 1.0 to 33.4) had suggestive evidence of benefit for acute conversion of AF relative to control treatment.

Suggestive Evidence of Negative Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

The evidence was suggestive of negative efficacy of sotalol (OR 0.4, CI 0.0 to 3.0) for acute conversion of AF.

Minimal Evidence

Minimal evidence existed for agents in Class II, IV, and V and in the miscellaneous category.

Pharmacological Maintenance of Sinus Rhythm

Strong Evidence of Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

All of the following antiarrhythmic agents had strong evidence of efficacy for maintenance of sinus rhythm after cardioversion of AF: quinidine (OR 4.1, CI 2.5 to 6.7), disopyramide (OR 3.4, CI 1.6 to 7.1), flecainide (OR 3.1, CI 1.5 to 6.2), propafenone (OR 3.7, CI 2.4 to 5.7), and sotalol (OR 7.1, CI 3.8 to 13.4). Our review did not support any definitive ranking of these five agents for efficacy of maintaining sinus rhythm.

Potentially Strong Evidence of Efficacy (Compared With Control Treatment)

We identified no trials of amiodarone compared with control treatment for maintenance of sinus rhythm, but one trial had moderate evidence of amiodarone efficacy relative to disopyramide.

Minimal Evidence

Minimal evidence existed for N-acetylprocainamide and agents in Class IV and the miscellaneous category.

Rate Control

Overall, 45 trials were identified that evaluated 17 agents. The design and outcomes of these trials were too disparate for meta-analysis.

  • Compared with placebo or digoxin, the calcium-channel-blockers diltiazem and verapamil were more efficacious in reducing the heart rate at rest and during exercise in patients with AF.

  • Compared with placebo or digoxin, beta-blockers were more efficacious in reducing the heart rate at rest and during exercise in patients with AF. However, exercise tolerance was decreased on beta-blockers in a number of the studies. The effect of beta-blockers on resting heart rate was inconsistent, with only about half of the studies demonstrating better control with beta-blockers than placebo.

The evidence was inconclusive regarding the efficacy of digoxin, particularly during exercise.

Antithrombotic Therapy for Stroke Prevention

There was strong evidence of the efficacy of warfarin (OR 0.30, CI 0.19 to 0.48) compared with placebo. However, the evidence was suggestive for a higher bleeding rate on warfarin (OR 1.90, CI 0.89 to 4.04) than placebo. For every 1,000 patients with AF that are treated with warfarin for 1 year, 30 strokes are prevented at the expense of 6 major bleeds.

The evidence for efficacy in preventing stroke was suggestive for aspirin (OR 0.65; CI 0.43 to 0.99) compared with placebo. The evidence for an increased odds of major bleeding associated with aspirin (OR 0.81, CI 0.37 to 1.77) compared to placebo was inconclusive. For every 1,000 patients with AF that are treated with aspirin for 1 year, 12.5 strokes are prevented.

The evidence from trials directly comparing warfarin and aspirin did not permit strong conclusions.

The evidence does not support the use of a combination of low-dose warfarin with aspirin or the use of low molecular weight heparin or induprofen for stroke prevention, but the data are limited.

Echocardiography

From our comprehensive literature search of clinical trials, no completed trials were identified that directly addressed the clinical utility of echocardiography in the management of AF.

Of the 46 studies of acute cardioversion identified in our comprehensive search of clinical trials, only 9 gave information relating left-atrial diameter from echocardiography to success of cardioversion. Although the results were not consistent, they suggested an inverse association between left-atrial diameter and successful cardioversion.

Outpatient Initiation of Antiarrhythmic Therapy

Our comprehensive literature search did not identify any randomized controlled clinical trials that addressed this question directly.

Note: Additional conclusions based on the decision analysis are presented in Chapter 8, Decision Analysis, under Conclusions.

Intended Uses of the Evidence Report

The evidence report synthesizes the evidence that should guide clinical decisionmaking in patients with non-postoperative AF. Several strategies will be employed to make this information available to clinicians and their patients. The entire evidence report will be disseminated by AHRQ's Publications Clearinghouse and its Web site. In addition, condensed versions of each major component of the report will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals that are widely read by the types of clinicians most likely to be involved in the management of patients with AF. Efforts also will be made to present the key findings of the evidence report at national meetings of major professional organizations such as the American Academy of Family Physicians, the Society of General Internal Medicine, the American College of Cardiology, and the American Heart Association. These efforts to disseminate the evidence directly to clinicians will be complemented by efforts to translate the contents of the evidence report into practice guidelines by leading professional organizations that have well-developed mechanisms for producing practice guidelines relevant to their members. We also will seek to translate the contents of the evidence report into innovative computerized information and decision support systems being developed by organizations such as the American College of Physicians and the Johns Hopkins University.

Chapter 5. Future Research

Conversion and Maintenance of Sinus Rhythm

It is important to identify gaps in the evidence from this review. First, a substantial number of relevant antiarrhythmic comparisons have not been done. In particular, no clinical trials have compared flecainide with ibutilide/dofetilide for acute conversion of AF. These two agents have the strongest evidence of efficacy for acute conversion, and a direct comparison would be beneficial to clinicians.

Second, with respect to both acute conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm, evidence regarding amiodarone is scarce and problematic. Additional trials evaluating amiodarone for both acute conversion and maintenance of sinus rhythm would allow definitive classification of amiodarone efficacy.

Third, given safety concerns, particularly of Class I agents, future trials-with better characterization of subjects in terms of coronary artery disease and risk for ventricular arrhythmias for each of the pharmacological antiarrhythmic agents-would solidify the evidence for efficacy by allowing stratification for risk of adverse events.

Fourth, almost no data were found in this review regarding the interaction between use of the various antiarrhythmic agents and quality of life. Given the known existence of this interaction, future trials incorporating assessment of quality of life would complete the picture on efficacy by reaching into an assessment of overall effectiveness.

Finally, the followup times for all the clinical trials on maintenance of sinus rhythm were relatively short. Because the ability to remain free of recurrences likely affects a patient's quality of life, it would be beneficial to test the antiarrhythmic agents for a longer time for efficacy regarding maintenance of sinus rhythm. The results of the ongoing Atrial Fibrillation Follow-up Investigation of Rhythm Management (AFFIRM) should help address this issue (Planning and Steering Committees of the AFFIRM study, 1997; Hohnloser and Kuck, 1997).

Rate Control

Future studies are needed that evaluate outcomes-including quality-of-life effects most important to patients, such as exercise tolerance and functional status-because, in essence, heart rate is only a surrogate for these outcomes. More studies are needed to evaluate the rate control effect of some of the newer medications, particularly those used for pharmacological conversion of atrial fibrillation such as amiodarone and propafenone. An ideal medication would be one that restores sinus rhythm and also effectively controls the ventricular rate in case of reversion to atrial fibrillation. Notably absent from our review of the literature are any randomized controlled trials that report the rate-controlling effect of amiodarone alone. Confirmatory studies are needed of the rate-controlling effect of sotalol, perhaps without concomitant digoxin. Similarly, trials of oral propafenone would be useful because it is likely to be effective for conversion and rate control, and only one trial has been done for this medication taken orally for rate control.

Anticoagulants and Antiplatelet Agents

Additional studies of warfarin versus aspirin in moderate-risk and low-risk populations are needed. The only completed study of the combination of aspirin with low-dose warfarin was done in a high-risk population. The study in a lower risk group was terminated early, so the question of the efficacy in a lower risk population is uncertain, and it may warrant reevaluation.

Comparisons of low molecular weight heparin with warfarin and low molecular weight heparin with aspirin are needed, in addition to larger studies comparing heparin with placebo.

A study of indobufen versus warfarin for primary stroke prevention also may be warranted, because the only published trial is for secondary prevention.

Studies are needed that evaluate other antithrombotic agents such as ticlopidine and clopidogrel, particularly for those patient groups unable to take warfarin.

Chapter 6. Decision Analysis

Methods

Objective

The main objective of the decision analysis was to address those questions not directly or fully addressed in the clinical trial literature. The decisions to be addressed included:

  • 1

    The overall decision regarding whether to attempt cardioversion or to treat conservatively with rate control and antithrombotic agents (key question 1).

  • 2

    If cardioversion is to be attempted, what combination of electrical or pharmacological intervention is best for cardioversion and subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm? (key questions 2 and 3).

  • 3

    If cardioversion is not to be attempted, what antithrombotic agent should be used? (supplementary question 2).

  • 4

    The question regarding outpatient initiation of antiarrhythmic therapy (key question 4), although only the cost implications of this decision could be evaluated because of limitations in the literature.

  • 5

    Decisions regarding the use of transesophageal echocardiography and transthoracic echocardiography in the evaluation of patients with AF (key question 5) to help guide decisions about antithrombotic therapy.

Because the data in the randomized clinical trial literature regarding rate control were not presented readily translatable to a decision analytic format, rate control issues were not evaluated in the model.

The target population was patients with new onset AF. Because age and risk factors for thromboembolism are important clinical characteristics that influence the decisions we evaluated, the base case was analyzed in six subgroups based on these characteristics. The six groups were patients who were 55, 65, and 75 years old, with and without risk factors for thromboembolism. The questions were addressed in the decision analysis by estimating the cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies from the perspective of society.

Design

Strategies

An external file that holds a picture, illustration, etc., usually as some form of binary object. The name of referred object is f3317_f060.jpg.

   Figure 60. Strategies for atrial fibrillation

A Monte Carlo multistate transition model was constructed using a commercially available computer program (DATA by TreeAge, Williamstown, Mass.). One large tree was constructed to encompass all of the above decisions, with decision nodes embedded within other decision nodes (Figure 60). For instance, the decision about which pharmacological agent is most cost-effective for maintenance of sinus rhythm must be addressed before determining if cardioversion is preferable to conservative therapy with rate control and antithrombotic therapy.

First, to address the question of what combination of electrical or pharmacological intervention is most cost-effective for cardioversion and subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm (key questions 2 and 3), 17 strategies were evaluated (strategies A-G in Figure 60).

(A) Electrical cardioversion without subsequent pharmacological therapy.

(B-G) Pharmacological conversion using either quinidine, flecainide, propafenone, amiodarone, sotalol, or ibutilide without subsequent pharmacological therapy.

(H-L) Pharmacological conversion with continued therapy using either quinidine, flecainide, propafenone, amiodarone, or sotalol (ibutilide cannot be used for continued therapy).

(M-Q) Electrical cardioversion with subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm using one of the five agents listed above.

Second, to address the question of which antithrombotic therapy is most cost-effective for the prevention of stroke (supplementary question 2), strategies employing aspirin and warfarin were evaluated.

Third, by comparing the most cost-effective strategies from each of the above two analyses, the overall question of whether to attempt cardioversion or to treat conservatively with antithrombotic therapy (key question 1) was addressed.

Fourth, the implications of the costs of inpatient versus outpatient initiation of antiarrhythmic therapy on the cost-effectiveness of the strategies for cardioversion and subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm (key question 4) were evaluated.

Finally, the question regarding the use of echocardiography to guide antithrombotic therapy (key question 5) was addressed. Strategies employing transesophageal echocardiography or transthoracic echocardiography to guide decisions about antithrombotic therapy were compared with the strategy employing either aspirin in all patients or warfarin in all patients.

Multistate Transition Model

Each of the strategies outlined above was incorporated into a decision model by linking the decision nodes to a Monte Carlo multistate transition model. In this simulation model, patients are followed through monthly cycles for events that cause transition from one health state to another. The cost and utility (which is a numeric estimate of quality of life) associated with each health state for each cycle is calculated. The final estimated average cost and utility for each strategy are based on the average sum of the costs and utilities for 5,000 patients.

The model was designed for Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulation tracks individual patients through the model. Another common method, conventional multiplicative simulation, tracks each of the probabilities of each event through the model. For example, assume a model is constructed to assess a strategy employing an operation with a 5 percent mortality and a postoperative utility for survivors of 1.0. In conventional multiplicative simulations, the final utility of this simple model would be 0.95 (0.95 times 1.0 plus 0.05 times 0). In Monte Carlo simulation, for each trial the final utility would be either 1.0 if the patient survived or 0 if the patient did not. If a large number of trials (i.e., individual patients) are run, 95 percent of the trials likely would result in a utility of 1.0 and 5 percent in a utility of 0, with the mean utility approaching 0.95. Thus, in simple models, little is gained from Monte Carlo simulations.

However, in models of complex clinical problems such as ours, Monte Carlo simulations enable memory of previous health states. For instance, if a patient transitions through one health state and then back to the baseline state, the assumed therapy can be changed. In conventional multiplicative simulations, a separate health state would need to be created to account for the proportion that changes therapy. With a complex model, the number of health states necessary to account for all potential changes in health status and therapy would be cumbersome. The major disadvantage of Monte Carlo models is the time required to run each simulation because thousands of trials typically are necessary to achieve mean stable estimates of mean costs and mean utilities. In particular, the number of parameters evaluated in sensitivity analysis makes Monte Carlo models very time consuming. Overall, Monte Carlo models enable more complex clinical scenarios than other models but require more time to run.

An external file that holds a picture, illustration, etc., usually as some form of binary object. The name of referred object is f3317_f061.jpg.

   Figure 61. Multi-state transition model

The health state outcomes in our model (Figure 61) included a baseline health state, five temporary health states that may transition back to the baseline health state (temporary bleed, transient ischemic attack, ventricular arrhythmia, acute stroke, and acute central nervous system bleed), two chronic health states (post-stroke and post-central nervous system bleed), and death.

The Monte Carlo model enabled simulation of changes in rhythm status and therapy within and between health states. Within each health state, two cardiac rhythms-sinus rhythm or atrial fibrillation-and two antithrombotic therapies-aspirin or warfarin-were possible. For example, if a patient began the simulation in sinus rhythm, each month brings a probability of converting back to atrial fibrillation. Also, if a patient being treated with warfarin experienced a temporary bleed, the therapy would be changed permanently to aspirin.

Decision Analysis Assumptions

Several assumptions were necessary to implement the decision model. The major assumptions are listed below.

Patient Characteristics

Patients were assumed to have:

  • Persistent atrial fibrillation.

  • No previous trials on any of the medications. Information from previous trials can influence probabilities of success. This assumption is consistent with our decision to focus on a target population of patients with new onset atrial fibrillation.

  • No indication for any of the medications other than for atrial fibrillation.

  • No contraindication to any of the medications.

  • No recent transthoracic echocardiography or transesophageal echocardiography.

  • No indication for transthoracic echocardiography or transesophageal echocardiography other than atrial fibrillation.

  • No contraindication to transesophageal echocardiography.

Model Characteristics

Our model assumed that:

  • The two available antithrombotic treatment options for patients with persistent AF are warfarin and aspirin. The evidence was against the use of placebo or a combination of warfarin and aspirin, and the evidence evaluating low molecular weight heparin and indobufen was inconclusive (in Chapter 3, see Efficacy of Anticoagulants and Antiplatelet Agents in Management of AF and Meta-Analysis of Results).

  • The six available antiarrhythmic options are quinidine, flecainide, propafenone, amiodarone, sotalol, and ibutilide. (Ibutilide is available for acute conversion only.)

  • Once AF recurs or if initial cardioversion did not occur, patients stay in AF (i.e., only one attempt of rhythm control). To construct a model that incorporates multiple attempts at cardioversion would be too cumbersome and involve multiple additional assumptions.

  • The only events that are counted are temporary bleeds, transient ischemic attacks, ventricular arrhythmia, hemorrhagic stroke, ischemic stroke, or death.

  • Temporary bleeds, transient ischemic attacks, and ventricular arrhythmia affect utility for only one cycle (1 month).

  • Temporary bleeds, transient ischemic attacks, and ventricular arrhythmia can occur multiple times.

  • Ischemic strokes and central nervous system bleeds can result in death or a permanently decreased utility. If a patient is on warfarin when a central nervous system bleed occurs, treatment changes to aspirin. If a patient is on aspirin when an ischemic stroke occurs, treatment changes to warfarin. Amiodarone can safely be started as an outpatient. The other antiarrhythmic agents require 1 hospital day to start safely for acute conversion only and 4 days to start for maintenance therapy.

  • Transesophageal echocardiography and electrical cardioversion can be done on an outpatient basis.

Risk

Our model assumed that:

  • Risk of recurrent AF after successful conversion and risk of ventricular arrhythmia differ by medication but not by any other risk status. For example, patients on quinidine have recurrent AF at a different rate from those on amiodarone, but the rates are similar for those <65 years old and for those >75 years old.

  • Initial rates of recurrent AF after conversion are higher than subsequent rates (the rate for each month is less than that for previous month). For example, the rate of recurrent AF for the first month is twice that for the second month. This rate was determined by assessing the rates of recurrence of AF in the control arms of the clinical trials identified for the meta-analysis.

  • Ischemic strokes and central nervous system bleeds permanently increase the risk of death.

  • Relative reduction in ischemic stroke risk with treatment is uniform across baseline stroke risks. For example, warfarin reduces stroke risk by 67 percent regardless of baseline stroke risk.

  • Risk of stroke decreases once converted to sinus rhythm (e.g., to one-third in base case analysis) (Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., 1995).

  • Transesophageal echocardiography is considered only for patients with additional (other than AF) known risk factors for ischemic stroke (previous embolic stroke, systolic hypertension, diabetes). Available literature does not include transesophageal echocardiography in low-risk patients.

  • Stroke risk for those with abnormalities on transesophageal echocardiography depends upon the abnormality rather than other patient characteristics (e.g., age, hypertension); the differing prevalences of these abnormalities reflect the differing stroke risk in the overall population. For example, a patient with a left-atrial abnormality on transesophageal echocardiography has a stroke risk of 7.8 percent per year. The higher stroke risk of an older patient compared with a younger patient will be accounted for by a higher prevalence of abnormalities on transesophageal echocardiography.

  • Stroke risk for those with abnormal left-ventricular function on transthoracic echocardiography is proportionally greater than the risk if left-ventricular function were not known. For instance, the risk for those 75 years old without other risk factors increases 11-fold if it is known that left-ventricular function is abnormal.

Input Parameters

Table 4. Input Variables
CategoryDescriptionBest Estimate 1LowHighSource
Prevalence %Abnormal LV on TTE1) 6.0 2) 9.7 3) 10.8 4) 18.3 5) 11.3 6) 17.12.9 5.8 4.8 13.1 8.1 10.810.7 15.1 20.2 24.4 15.2 25.2Atrial Fibrillation Investigators, Arch Intern Med, 1998.
Left-atrial abnormality on TEE28.021.635.3SPAF III, Lancet,1996.
Aortic plaque on TEE17.412.223.8SPAF III, Lancet,1996.
Left-atrial abnormality and aortic plaque on TEE20.214.926.9SPAF III, Lancet,1996.
Thrombus on initial TEE73.514Manning, Silverman, Keighley et al., J Am Coll Cardiol,1995.
Thrombus on repeat TEE after 4 weeks anticoagulation157.530
Esophageal tear during TEE0.020.010.03Dawson and Cockel, BMJ 1981; Silvis, Nebel, Rogers etal., JAMA 1976.
Stroke and CNS Bleed Rates % or %/yrStroke off medications1) 0.8 2) 3.9 3) 0.9 4) 5.2 5) 5.6 6) 10.70.2 2.2 0.1 3.2 3.9 6.83.0 7.1 6.7 8.7 8.0 16.7Atrial Fibrillation Investigators, Arch Intern Med, 1998.
Cerebral bleed on aspirin0.15/yr00.8Meta-analysis from EPC Report
Cerebral bleed on warfarin0.5/yr01.8
Stroke with left-atrial abnormality on TEE7.8/yr2.921.0SPAF III, Lancet, 1996.
Stroke with aortic plaque on TEE12.0/yr4.532.0
Stroke with both left-atrial abnormality and aortic plaqueon TEE20.5/yr9.843
Stroke after cardioversion0.330.10.8Moreyra, Finkelhor, and Cebul, Am Heart J, 1995.
Stroke and CNS Bleed Relative Risks (Compared with Baseline Rates)Number of Transient ischemic attacks compared with the number of strokes0.250.1250.5Meta-analysis from EPC Report
Number of temporary bleeds compared with the number of CNS bleeds428
Stroke on aspirin0.670.430.99
Stroke on warfarin0.330.190.48
Stroke with abnormal LV on TTE1) 11.6 2) 2.2 3) 12.1 4) 1.9 5) 2.1 6) 1.81.6 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.9 0.782.5 8.5 86.7 4.4 4.6 4.9Atrial Fibrillation Investigators, Arch Intern Med, 1998.
Relative rate of stroke with persistent thrombus10520Klein, Grimm, Black et al., Ann Intern Med, 1997;estimated
Relative rate of stroke with resolved thrombus52.510Estimated
Stroke in sinus rhythm0.330.20.5Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., Am J Med, 1995; Wolf, Abbott, and Kannel, Stroke, 1991.
Relative rate of CNS bleed in the first month2110Fihn, McDonell, Martin et al., Ann Intern Med, 1993.
Acute Cardioversion Rates and Relative RisksDirect current cardioversion (DCCV)80%7090Van Gelder and Crijns, PACE, 1997.
Spontaneous30%075Meta-analysis from EPC Report
Quinidine1.340.981.85
Flecainide8.023.5518.14
Propafenone1.881.672.13
Amiodarone1.330.831.16
Sotalol0.420.072.56
Ibutilide/Dofetilide16.80.3892.23
Relapse Rates* Baseline40%20%60%Meta-analysis from EPC Report
Quinidine0.550.30.85
Flecainide0.520.4250.875
Propafenone0.450.40.7
Amiodarone0.520.30.85
Sotalol0.450.2750.8
Ventricular rates and relative risksBaseline0Assumed
In hospital for all antiarrhythmic agents0
Quinidine - Acute, if initiated in outpatient setting1.2%0.62.4Falk, Ann Intern Med, 1992
Quinidine1.5%/yr0.753
Flecainide0.50.251Estimated
Propafenone0.50.251
Amiodarone0.330.11.0
Sotalol1.00.52
Ibutilide1.00.52
Mortality Rates %/yr or %Baseline rate of death for general populationActuarial Data
Increase in mortality for atrial fibrillation1.311.081.59Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., Am J Med, 1995.
Increase in mortality for risk factor>11.771.362.17Krahn, Manfreda, Tate et al., Am J Med, 1995.
Acute stroke20%1030Matsumoto, Whisnant, Kurland et al., Stroke, 1973; Sacco RL, Foulkes, Mohr et al., Stroke, 1989; Sacco, Wolf, Kannel et al., Stroke,1982; US Agency for Health Care Policy and Research, 1995; Wolf, Dawber,Thomas et al., Neurology, 1978; Meta-analysis from EPC Report; Dennis, Burn,Sandercock et al., Stroke, 1993.
Chronic stroke15%/yr7.530Matsumoto, Whisnant, Kurland et al., Stroke, 1973; Sacco,Wolf, Kannel et al., Stroke, 1982; United States Agency for Health Care Policy and Research, US DHHS, 1995; Wolf, Dawber, Thomas et al., Neurology,1978; Dennis, Burn, Sandercock et al., Stroke, 1993
Acute cerebral bleed70%5090Landefeld and Goldman, Am J Med, 1989; Matsumoto,Whisnant, Kurland et al., Stroke, 1973; Sacco, Foulkes, Mohr et al., Stroke,1989; Sacco, Wolf, Kannel et al., Stroke, 1982; Wolf, Dawber, Thomas etal., Neurology, 1978; Dennis, Burn, Sandercock et al., Stroke, 1993
Chronic cerebral bleed15%/yr7.530Same as stroke
Ventricular arrhythmia50%2575Falk, Ann Intern Med, 1992.
Esophageal tear8%416Pasricha, Fleischer and Kalloo, Gastroenterology, 1994.
CostsAnticoagulation72/mo45108Gage, Cardinalli, Albers et al., JAMA, 1995.
$ or $/moQuinidine306Cardinale, Drug Topics Red Book, 1997.
Flecainide120870
Propafenone150870
Amiodarone100870
Sotalol1100870
Ibutilide/Dofetilide299149449
Quinidine35/mo336
Flecainide119/mo47345
Propafenone151/mo83202
Amiodarone98/mo--
Sotalol10653213
TTE354177708Seto, Taira, Tsevat et al., J Am Coll Cardiol, 1997.
TEE477239954
Direct current cardioversion235118470
Acute stroke9,0064,50318,012Ashraf, Hay, Pitt et al., Am J Cardiol, 1996; Bowen and Yaste, Neurology, 1994; Eckman, Levine, and Pauker, Chest, 1992; Lee, Huber, and Stason, Med Care, 1996; Persson, Silverberg, Lindgren et al., Intl J Technol Assess Health Care, 1990; Terent, Marke, Asplund et al., Stroke, 1994.
Chronic stroke677/mo3381,354Ashraf, Hay, Pitt et al., Am J Cardiol, 1996; Eckman, Levine, and Pauker, Chest, 1992; Lee, Huber, and Stason, Med Care, 1996; Persson, Silverberg, Lindgren et al., Intl J Technol Assess Health Care, 1990.
Acute cerebral bleed14,4107,20528,820Ashraf, Hay, Pitt et al., Am J Cardiol, 1996; Bowen and Yaste, Neurology, 1994; Eckman, Levine, and Pauker, Chest, 1992; Lee, Huber, and Stason, Med Care, 1996; Persson, Silverberg, Lindgren et al., Intl J Technol Assess Health Care, 1990; Terent, Marke, Asplund et al., Stroke, 1994.
Chronic cerebral bleed677/mo3381,354Same as stroke
Temporary bleed6,1253,06212,250Landefeld and Goldman, Am J Med, 1989. (GI Bld)
Transient ischemic attack5,7352,86211,470Gage, Cardinalli, Albers et al., JAMA, 1995.
Ventricular arrhythmia2,0511,0254,102Four hospital days - estimated
Hospital day5132621,026Seto, Taira, Tsevat et al., J Am Coll Cardiol, 1997.
Esophageal tear1,7708853,540Seto, Taira, Tsevat et al., J Am Coll Cardiol, 1997.
UtilitiesBaseline1Assumed
First stroke0.540.270.77Solomon, Glick, Russo et al., Stroke, 1994; Gage, Cardinalli, Albers et al., JAMA, 1995.
Recurrent stroke0.120.060.24Gage, Cardinalli, Albers et al., JAMA, 1995.
Temporary bleed0.760.380.88Gage, Cardinalli, Albers et al., JAMA, 1995.
TIA0.750.3750.875Gage, Cardinalli, Albers et al., JAMA, 1995.
Ventricular arrhythmia0.750.3750.875Assumed
Death0Assumed
AdjustmentsFor being on warfarin0.9880.921Gage, Cardinalli, Albers et al., JAMA, 1995.
For being in atrial fibrillation0.920.841Gage, Cardinalli, and Owens, Arch Intern Med, 1996.
DiscountCosts and utilities3%07Gold, Siegel, Russell et al., Oxford Univ Press, 1996.
1

1) <65 and no risk factors, 2) 65-75 and no risk factors, 3) >75 and no risk factors, 4) <65 risk and > 1 risk factor, 5) 65-75 and > 1 risk factor, and 6) >75 and > 1 risk factor

* Rate is for first month. Subsequent months are calculated via the formula: rate for the Nth month = rate for the first month/N

NOTES: TTE = Transthoracic echocardiography, TEE = Transesophageal echocardiography, CNS = Central Nervous System.

The probability of each event, mortality rates, costs, and utilities used in the decision analysis are presented in Table 4. Wherever possible, we used the results of our meta-analysis of the clinical trial literature because these data represented the strongest level of evidence. The rate of successful conversion without pharmacologic therapy was estimated from the mean of conversion proportions in the control arms of our identified studies. The rates of successful conversion for patients receiving each of the pharmacological agents were assumed to be proportional to this rate and were estimated from the relative risks from the trials.

The rate of reversion back to AF for patients not treated with medication could not be obtained directly from the literature because the trials had different followup periods. The rate was estimated from the available data based upon the rates for the control arms from our identified trials with at least 3 months' followup (Bellandi, Dabizzi, Niccoli et al., 1995; Van Gelder and Crijns, 1997; Karlson, Torstensson, Abjorn et al., 1988; Hillestad, Bjerkelund, Dale et al., 1971; Sodermark, Jonsson, Olsson et al., 1975; Stroobandt, Stiels, and Hoebrechts, 1997; Hartel, Louhija, Konttinen, 1974; UK Propafenone PSVT Study Group, 1995; Singh, 1998). In an attempt to best simulate the rate seen in patients, the simplest mathematical model that fit the data reasonably was sought. Upon inspection, neither a constant nor an exponential rate was consistent with the data. The simplest mathematical model that fit the data was: monthly rate = a baseline rate divided by the number of months since conversion. This model captured the initial high rate of failure within the first few months as well as the progressively lower rate of failure in later months. The rate of reversion back to atrial fibrillation for patients treated with antiarrhythmic therapy was assumed to be proportional to the rate in patients not treated with medications and was estimated from the strongest identified literature. Finally, rates of strokes and bleeds on warfarin and aspirin were calculated from the results of the meta-analysis (in Chapter 3, see Efficacy of Anticoagulants and Antiplatelet Agents in Management of AF and Meta-Analysis of Results).

For parameters not available in the clinical trial literature, we performed targeted searches that included the observational literature. The sources for all the parameters are listed in Table 4. All costs are stated in 1997 dollars, using the Medical Economics Index (http://www.hcfa.gov/stats/indicatr/indicatr.htm, Office of National Health Statistics) to estimate costs in 1997 dollars when presented in costs from previous years. We discounted costs and utilities by 3 percent per year, as recommended by the U.S. Public Health Task Force (Gold, Siegel, Russell et al., 1996).

Analysis

General Features

Because the data from the clinical trial literature rarely encompass more than 5 years of followup, a 5-year horizon was used in the decision analysis. The cost-effectiveness was calculated from the perspective of society. A cost of less than $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was considered cost-effective (Garner and Dardis, 1987; Hilner, Smith, and Desch, 1992).

Cardioversion and Antithrombosis

The base case analysis for cardioversion and antithrombotic therapy, using the best available estimates of each parameter, was performed for six different patient profiles based on age and stroke risk factor status (systolic hypertension, diabetes, or previous thromboembolic event): 55 years old with no risk factors, 65 years old with no risk factors, 75 years old with no risk factors, 55 years old with at least one risk factor, 65 years old with at least one risk factor, and 75 years old with at least one risk factor. The base case analysis was performed for the question of which strategy of cardioversion and subsequent maintenance was most cost-effective, for the question of whether aspirin or warfarin was more cost-effective, and for whether a cardioversion attempt was cost-effective.

Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of our base case results as well as to identify areas of needed research. All relevant parameters were evaluated over a reasonable range for the patient profile of 75 years old with no risk factors. This age group was chosen because of the importance of AF in this age group. Other selected parameters were varied for the other subgroups as described in the results. In addition, to assess the implications of using a 5-year time frame in the base case analysis, a separate analysis was performed in which the horizon was extended to 20 years.

Outpatient Initiation of Antiarrhythmic Therapy

The potential economic savings that could result from outpatient initiation of antiarrhythmic therapy were evaluated by removing the cost of inpatient treatment from those antiarrhythmic agents for which inpatient initiation is currently deemed necessary (all agents except for amiodarone). Unfortunately, data were insufficient to permit assessment of the risks of initiating antiarrhythmic therapy on an outpatient basis.

Echocardiography-Guided Antithrombotic Therapy

To assess the cost-effectiveness of using transthoracic echocardiography and transesophageal echocardiography to help guide decisions about antithrombotic therapy, two additional strategies were evaluated for the antithrombotic therapy decision. First, for all six subgroups, the strategy was evaluated that employed warfarin for all patients with abnormal left-ventricular function on transthoracic echocardiography and aspirin for the rest of the patients. Second, for the subgroups with at least one risk factor, a strategy was evaluated that employed warfarin for patients with either left-atrial abnormality or complex aortic plaque on transesophageal echocardiography and aspirin for neither of these abnormalities. Data are not available on stroke rates of patients without risk factors stratified by results of transesophageal echocardiography. Analysis accounting for a decreased quality of life for warfarin therapy as well as one that did not account for such a decrease was evaluated.

Results of Decision Analysis

Base Case

The overall decision on whether to attempt cardioversion in a patient with new onset AF (key question 1) was analyzed by first assessing the relative cost-effectiveness of different strategies for attempting cardioversion (key questions 2 and 3) and comparing the preferred strategy with different strategies involving antithrombotic therapy without cardioversion (supplemental question 2). The population was assumed to include patients with new onset AF without a prior cardioversion attempt. This assumed length of followup was 5 years because the data from the clinical trials from which many of the probability inputs were obtained did not justify a longer followup for the base case analyses. The analysis took the perspective of society. A cost-effectiveness ratio under $50,000/QALY was considered cost-effective. For each set of strategies compared in the multistate transition Monte Carlo simulation model, we made 5,000 runs, producing a standard error of the mean for the total cost estimates of approximately $80 and a standard error of the mean for the estimated quality-adjusted survival of about 0.02 QALYs.

Cardioversion

For the scenario employing an attempt at cardioversion for a patient with new onset AF, the base case was performed assuming a 75-year-old man or woman without any risk factors for stroke (no systolic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or previous history of thromboembolism). Seventeen strategies were evaluated. Seven strategies employed cardioversion without subsequent pharmacological maintenance (Strategies A-G in Figure 60)-electrical cardioversion and conversion using one of six antiarrhythmic agents (quinidine, flecainide, propafenone, amiodarone, sotalol, and ibutilide). Five strategies employed pharmacological conversion with subsequent therapy using the same agent for maintenance of sinus rhythm (Strategies H-L). Finally, five strategies employed electrical cardioversion with subsequent pharmacological maintenance therapy (Strategies M-Q).

Cost

Table 5A. Results for Base Case for One Cardioversion Attempt Without Pharmacological Maintenance Therapy for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation (75 years old without risk factors1)
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal Quality-Adjusted Life-YearsMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
CardioversionMaintenance($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
AElectricalNone4,1003.67Dominates 2
EAmiodaroneNone4,2003.63Dominated by A
CFlecainideNone4,4203.66Dominated by A
BQuinidineNone4,5903.63Dominated by A
DPropafenoneNone4,6403.65Dominated by A
GIbutilideNone4,6803.66Dominated by A
FSotalolNone4,8403.61Dominated by A
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and previous history of thromboembolism

2

Electrical cardioversion (A) has lower cost and higher effectiveness than the other strategies

NOTES: QALY = Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10, and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

For the strategies employing cardioversion alone (Table 5A), the strategy employing electrical cardioversion (A) was the least expensive (mean of $4,100 per patient over 5 years), and the one employing amiodarone (E) for acute cardioversion (without maintenance treatment) was the next least expensive. The lower estimated costs of these strategies were partly a result of the assumption that they can be performed in an outpatient setting. In contrast, one hospital day (estimated average cost: $513) was assumed for each of the other strategies employing pharmacological conversion without subsequent maintenance therapy. The remainder of the cost differential among the cardioversion-alone strategies was a result of varying medication costs and downstream event costs.

Table 5B. Results for Base Case for One Pharmacological Cardioversion Attempt With Pharmacological Maintenance Therapy1 for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation (75 years old without risk factors2)
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal Quality-Adjusted Life-YearsMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
CardioversionMaintenance($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
KAmiodaroneAmiodarone4,7403.66 * * *
HQuinidineQuinidine6,3103.65Dominated by K
LSotalolSotalol6,6703.62Dominated by K
IFlecainideFlecainide7,2503.732,5100.0734,410
JPropafenonePropafenone7,6303.70Dominated by I
1

Pharmacological maintenance therapy is discontinued if atrial fibrillation recurs

2

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and previous history of thromboembolism

* Numeric comparisons are with this strategy

QALY = Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

Table 5C. Results for Base Case for One Electrical Cardioversion Attempt With Pharmacological Maintenance Therapy1 for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation (75 years old without risk factors2)
StrategyEstimated 5-year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal Quality-Adjusted Life-YearsMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
CardioversionMaintenance($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
AElectricalNone 34,1003.67 * * *
PElectricalAmiodarone5,1503.721,0500.0618,100
MElectricalQuinidine6,0303.71Dominated by P
QElectricalSotalol7,2903.732,140 #0.01 #268,000 #
NElectricalFlecainide7,4703.72Dominated by Q
OElectricalPropafenone8,1603.743,010 #0.02 #177,350 #
1

Pharmacological maintenance therapy is discontinued if atrial fibrillation recurs

2

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and previous history of thromboembolism

3

Results for this strategy also appear in Table 2A

* Initial strategy with which subsequent strategies are compared unless otherwise noted

# Compared with electrical cardioversion and amiodarone maintenance (P)

NOTES: QALY= Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

Among the five strategies employing pharmacological conversion with subsequent pharmacological maintenance therapy (Table 5B), the strategy employing amiodarone was the least expensive. Similarly, among the five strategies employing electrical cardioversion with subsequent pharmacological maintenance therapy (Table 5C), the strategy employing amiodarone had the lowest estimated average costs. As mentioned previously, costs were lower predominantly because of the assumption that amiodarone can be started safely in an outpatient setting. The other pharmacological agents were assumed to require an initial 4-day hospital stay when used for maintenance therapy.

Table 5D. Results for Base Case for One Cardioversion Attempt for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation (75 years old without risk factors1)
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal Quality-Adjusted Life-YearsMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
CardioversionMaintenance($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
AElectricalNone4,1003.67 * * *
EAmiodaroneNone4,2003.63Dominated 2 by A
CFlecainideNone4,4203.66Dominated by A
BQuinidineNone4,5903.63Dominated by A
DPropafenoneNone4,6403.65Dominated by A
GIbutilideNone4,6803.66Dominated by A
KAmiodaroneAmiodarone4,7403.66Dominated by A
FSotalolNone4,8403.61Dominated by A
PElectricalAmiodarone5,1503.721,0500.0618,100
MElectricalQuinidine6,0303.71Dominated by P
HQuinidineQuinidine6,3103.65Dominated by P
LSotalolSotalol6,6703.62Dominated by P
IFlecainideFlecainide7,2503.732,100 30.01 3262,500 3
QElectricalSotalol7,2903.732,140 30.01 3268,000 3
NElectricalFlecainide7,4703.72Dominated by P
JPropafenonePropafenone7,6303.70Dominated by P
OElectricalPropafenone8,1603.743,010 30.02 3177,350 3
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and previous history of thromboembolism

2

Strategy has higher cost and lower effectiveness than comparison strategy

3

Compared with electrical cardioversion with amiodarone maintenance therapy (P)

* Initial strategy with which subsequent strategies are compared unless otherwise noted

NOTES: QALY= Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

When all of the strategies together were compared (Table 5D), the strategies employing cardioversion without maintenance therapy (A-G), in general, were less expensive than those employing maintenance therapy. For most of the strategies employing a particular antiarrhythmic agent for maintenance therapy, electrical cardioversion was less expensive than its corresponding pharmacological conversion (K vs. P, L vs. Q, I vs. N, and J vs. O).

Effectiveness

Among the strategies employing cardioversion alone (Table 5A), electrical cardioversion (A), flecainide (C), and ibutilide (G) were estimated to have the greatest mean estimated quality-adjusted survival (3.66, 3.66, and 3.67 QALYs, respectively). The effectiveness of these strategies was due primarily to the high efficacy of flecainide and ibutilide found in the meta-analysis of clinical trials, as well as the known high efficacy of electrical cardioversion. The effectiveness of the strategies employing the other pharmacological agents for cardioversion alone reflected the lower efficacy of these agents found in the meta-analysis of clinical trials.

The estimated effectiveness of the five strategies employing pharmacological maintenance therapy of sinus rhythm after successful pharmacological conversion (Table 5B) ranged from 3.62 QALYs for sotalol (L) to 3.73 QALYs for flecainide (I). The difference among these strategies depended more upon the efficacy of cardioversion than upon the efficacy of maintenance of sinus rhythm. The narrow range of estimated QALYs (3.71 to 3.74) among the strategies employing electrical cardioversion with maintenance therapy (Table 5C) also reflects the modest differences between agents in the efficacy of maintenance of sinus rhythm. In other words, the relative differences in efficacy of maintaining sinus rhythm among the various agents had little effect on the model's estimate of effectiveness. In the combined analysis (Table 5D), the strategies employing electrical cardioversion with pharmacological maintenance (M-Q) as well as the strategy employing flecainide conversion with flecainide maintenance therapy (I) had the greatest effectiveness.

Cost-effectiveness

The strategy employing electrical cardioversion (A in Table 5A) dominated (i.e., it was the least expensive and the most effective) those strategies attempting pharmacological conversion without maintenance therapy (B-G). Of note, the strategies employing flecainide (C) and ibutilide (G) for conversion were more expensive than electrical cardioversion (A) but were nearly as effective.

Among the strategies employing pharmacological conversion and maintenance therapy (Table 5B), the flecainide strategy (I) was the preferred strategy, costing $34,410/QALY compared with the next best strategy, which was amiodarone (K). Among the strategies employing electrical cardioversion with pharmacological maintenance therapy (Table 5C), the strategy employing amiodarone maintenance therapy (P) was the preferred strategy, dominating the strategy using quinidine and being more cost-effective than the strategies using sotalol, flecainide, or propafenone.

In the combined analysis (Table 5D), the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the strategy employing electrical cardioversion with amiodarone maintenance (P) compared with the strategy employing electrical cardioversion without maintenance (A) was $18,100/QALY, within the range of what is typically considered cost-effective care. No other strategy was projected to be cost-effective compared with the strategy employing electrical cardioversion with amiodarone maintenance (P). However, the estimated cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies was driven mainly by estimates of costs of related services (e.g., continuous electrocardiographic monitoring in the hospital). Unfortunately, because of limitations in the published data, the need for these services for the different antiarrhythmic agents was based on assumptions about the safety of outpatient initiation of therapy.

In summary, this part of the analysis suggests that the most cost-effective strategies for attempting cardioversion in patients with new onset AF are those employing electrical cardioversion, or pharmacological conversion using flecainide or ibutilide, followed by pharmacological maintenance therapy that can be started safely in an outpatient setting.

Antithrombotic Therapy

The decision about whether to use aspirin or warfarin for the prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (supplemental question 2) principally involves a trade-off between the risk of thromboembolism on one side and the risk of hemorrhage and the cost and the inconvenience of taking warfarin on the other side.

The risk of thromboembolism has been shown to be dependent upon the age and risk factor status of the patient (Atrial Fibrillation Investigators, 1998). Thus, decision analysis was performed for each of six groups encompassing three ages (55, 65, and 75 years old), each with and without risk factors for thromboembolism (systolic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or prior stroke or transient ischemic attack). Based on the data from the pooled analysis of control arms from the Atrial Fibrillation Investigators (Atrial Fibrillation Investigators, 1994), the risk of stroke was lower in the 75-year-old subgroup than in the 65-year-old subgroup without risk factors. Although a physiologic explanation may be contributing (e.g., healthy survivor effect), the lower ischemic stroke risk for the older group likely is the result of the imprecision of the estimate because of the small numbers of events in this analysis. This lower ischemic stroke risk in the older cohort without risk factors influences many of the following comparisons.

Because the inconvenience of taking warfarin is particularly difficult to quantify, the analysis is presented both with and without accounting for any decreased quality of life because of taking warfarin. In addition, presenting the results for each assumption highlights the influence of the quality-of-life effects of warfarin therapy on the preferred therapy for different patient subgroups, as has been demonstrated by Gage et al. (Gage, Cardinalli, and Owens, 1998).

Table 6A. Results for Analysis Assuming No Decrease in Quality of Life on Warfarin Therapy: Comparison of Antithrombotic Therapy Strategies Without Cardioversion Attempt for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal Quality-Adjusted Life-YearsMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
55 years old, no risk factors1
Aspirin9504.18
Warfarin4,9704.14Dominated 2 by aspirin
65 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin3,1503.87 * * *
Warfarin5,9003.932,7500.0648,250
75 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin1,0203.68
Warfarin4,4903.65Dominated 2 by aspirin
55 years old, one risk factor
Aspirin3,9903.90 * * *
Warfarin6,3603.992,3700.0928,230
65 years old, one risk factor
Aspirin4,0603.65 * * *
Warfarin6,3203.722,2600.0830,110
75 years old, one risk factor
Aspirin6,1103.07 * * *
Warfarin6,6603.185500.114,900
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes, and previous history of thromboembolism

The warfarin strategy has higher cost and lower effectiveness compared with the aspirin strategy

* Numeric comparisons are with the aspirin strategy within that subgroup

NOTES: QALY= Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

In the analysis, that does not account for any decreased quality of life because of taking warfarin (Table 6A).

Cost

The estimated total cost of the aspirin strategy chiefly reflected the cost of events, whereas the estimated total cost of the warfarin strategy also incorporated the additional cost of warfarin therapy. The warfarin strategy was estimated to cost more than the aspirin strategy for all six subgroups. However, the differences in estimated costs between the strategies were greater for those subgroups with low stroke rates (e.g., 55 years old without risk factors) than for those with high stroke rates (e.g., 75 years old with risk factors).

Effectiveness

For the two subgroups with the lowest ischemic stroke risk (55 and 75 years old without risk factors), the estimated average quality-adjusted survival was higher for the aspirin strategy than for the warfarin strategy. For the other four subgroups with higher ischemic stroke risks, the average quality-adjusted survival was higher for the warfarin strategy than for the aspirin strategy, with the difference in average QALYs increasing with age.

Cost-effectiveness

The strategy employing aspirin dominates (lower cost with higher effectiveness) the strategy employing warfarin for two of the three subgroups without risk factors (55 and 75 years old). Using $50,000/QALY as the threshold for cost-effectiveness, for the 65-year-olds without risk factors subgroup ($48,250/QALY), the strategy employing warfarin is borderline cost-effective compared with aspirin. The warfarin strategy is more clearly cost-effective for anyone with a risk factor (cost-effectiveness ratios $28,230/QALY, $30,110/QALY, and $4,900/QALY for the 55-year-old, 65-year-old, and 75-year-old subgroups, respectively).

In terms of the trade-offs involved in antithrombotic therapy, for the groups with an ischemic stroke risk of approximately 3 percent per year-65 years old without risk factors and any age with risk factors-the increased reduction in this risk on warfarin therapy is worth the increased cost of warfarin therapy and the increased risk of bleed.

Table 6B. Results for Base Case Assuming Decrease in Quality of Life on Warfarin Therapy: Comparison for Antithrombotic Therapy Without Cardioversion Attempt for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal Quality-Adjusted Life-YearsMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
55 years old, no risk factors1
Aspirin9504.17
Warfarin4,9704.10Dominated 2 by aspirin
65 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin3,1503.87
Warfarin5,9003.86Dominated 2 by aspirin
75 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin1,0203.68
Warfarin4,4903.61Dominated 2 by aspirin
55 years old, one risk factor
Aspirin3,9903.90 * * *
Warfarin6,3603.912,3700.01296,380
65 years old, one risk factor
Aspirin4,0603.65 * * *
Warfarin6,3203.682,2600.0366,410
75 years old, one risk factor
Aspirin6,1103.05 * * *
Warfarin6,6603.135500.086,950
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes, and previous history of thromboembolism

2

The warfarin strategy has higher cost and lower effectiveness compared with the aspirin strategy

* Numeric comparisons are with the aspirin strategy within that subgroup

NOTES: QALY= Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

In the analysis, that does account for some decreased quality of life because of taking warfarin (Table 6B).

Cost

The estimated costs would not change based upon assumptions of quality of life.

Effectiveness

For any age subgroup without risk factors, the estimated average quality-adjusted survival was higher for the aspirin strategy than for the warfarin strategy. For the subgroups with risk factors, the average quality-adjusted survival was higher for the warfarin strategy than for the aspirin strategy, and the difference between the warfarin and aspirin strategies increased with age. However, the average estimated quality-adjusted survival for the aspirin and warfarin strategies was similar for the groups with intermediate risk-both subgroups with patients 65 years old and 55 years old with risk factors.

Cost-effectiveness

The strategy employing aspirin dominates (lower cost with higher effectiveness) the strategy employing warfarin for the three subgroups without risk factors. Using $50,000/QALY as the threshold for cost-effectiveness, the warfarin strategy is not cost-effective for those 55 years old with a risk factor ($296,380/QALY), it is nearly cost-effective for those 65 years old with a risk factor ($66,410/QALY), and it is clearly cost-effective for those 75 years old with a risk factor ($6,950/QALY).

In terms of the trade-offs involved in antithrombotic therapy, accounting for decreased quality of life due to taking warfarin, in patients with an ischemic stroke risk of approximately 4 to 6 percent per year, the increased reduction in this risk on warfarin therapy is balanced by the increase in risk of central nervous system bleed and the inconvenience of taking warfarin. Stroke risk substantially greater than 4 to 6 percent favors warfarin therapy, and stroke risk less than 4 to 6 percent favors aspirin therapy.

One Cardioversion Attempt Versus Antithrombotic Therapy Only

To evaluate the overall decision of whether to attempt cardioversion in a patient with new onset AF (key question 1), electrical cardioversion with pharmacological maintenance therapy, the most cost-effective cardioversion strategy, was compared with the most cost-effective antithrombotic strategy for each of the six age-risk subgroups.

Table 7A. Results for Analysis Assuming No Decrease in Quality of Life on Warfarin: Comparison for One Cardioversion Attempt Versus Antithrombotic Therapy Without Cardioversion Attempt for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal Quality-Adjusted Life-YearsMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
55 years old, no risk factors1
Aspirin9504.18 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 23,3004.262,3500.0927,610
65 years old, no risk factors
Warfarin5,9003.93 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 36,5104.016100.087,560
75 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin1,0203.68 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 23,1403.762,1200.08724,370
55 years old,3 one risk factor
Warfarin6,3603.99 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 36,9504.085900.096,620
65 years old,3 one risk factor
Warfarin6,3203.72 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 36,8603.825400.105,480
75 years old,3 one risk factor
Warfarin6,6603.18 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 37,0003.283400.103,470
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes, and previous history of thromboembolism

2

Aspirin therapy for those who relapse to AF

3

Warfarin therapy for those who relapse to AF

* Numeric comparisons are with this strategy

NOTES: QALY= Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

In the analysis that does not account for any decreased quality of life because of taking warfarin (Table 7A):

Cost

The cost of the strategy employing one attempt of cardioversion was greater than the cost of the strategy employing antithrombotic therapy for each of the age-risk subgroups. Of note, in the base case, electrical cardioversion with pharmacological maintenance therapy was assumed to be performed in an outpatient setting.

Effectiveness

The average estimated quality-adjusted survival was greater for the strategy employing one attempt of cardioversion than for the strategy employing antithrombotic therapy, for each of the age-risk subgroups.

Cost-effectiveness

The cost-effectiveness ratio of the strategy employing one attempt of cardioversion compared with the strategy employing antithrombotic therapy ranged from $3,470 to $27,610 per QALY, becoming more cost-effective (lower ratio) with increasing ischemic stroke risk.

Table 7B. Results for Base Case Assuming Decrease in Quality of Life on Warfarin Therapy: Comparison for One Cardioversion Attempt Versus Antithrombotic Therapy Without Cardioversion Attempt for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal Quality-Adjusted Life-YearsMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
55 years old, no risk factors1
Aspirin9504.17 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 23,3004.262,3500.0925,790
65 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin3,1503.87 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 24,8603.991,7200.1214,300
75 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin1,0203.68 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 23,1403.762,1200.0824,940
55 years old,3 one risk factor
Aspirin3,9903.90 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 25,5004.041,5100.1410,840
65 years old,3 one risk factor
Aspirin4,0603.65 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 25,2903.761,2300.1210,730
75 years old,3 one risk factor
Warfarin6,6603.13 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 37,0003.243400.113,120
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes, and previous history of thromboembolism

2

Aspirin therapy for those who relapse to AF

3

Warfarin therapy for those who relapse to AF

* Numeric comparisons are with the aspirin strategy for that subgroup

NOTES: QALY= Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

In the analysis, that does account for some decreased quality of life because of taking warfarin (Table 7B).

Cost

The cost of the strategy employing one attempt of cardioversion was greater than the cost of the strategy employing antithrombotic therapy for each of the age-risk subgroups.

Effectiveness

The average estimated quality-adjusted survival was greater in the strategy employing one attempt of cardioversion than in the strategy employing antithrombotic therapy for each of the age-risk subgroups. Of note, accounting for a decrease in quality of life because of taking warfarin affects not only the magnitude of the differences between strategies but also which strategies are compared. For example, when accounting for a decrease in quality of life because of warfarin, aspirin is the preferred antithrombotic strategy for five of the subgroups; when not accounting for it, warfarin is the preferred antithrombotic strategy in four of the subgroups.

Cost-effectiveness

The cost-effectiveness ratio of the strategy employing one attempt of cardioversion compared with the strategy employing antithrombotic therapy ranged from $3,120 to $25,790 per QALY, becoming more cost-effective (lower ratio) with increasing ischemic stroke risk. These cost-effectiveness ratios are not substantially different from those obtained when assuming no decrease in quality of life because of taking warfarin (Table 7A).

Sensitivity Analysis

To assess the robustness of our base case results as well as to identify areas of needed research, all variables in the model (Table 4) were varied over a reasonable range for one subgroup (75 years old without risk factors), and other selected variables were varied for the other subgroups. The most relevant analyses are discussed below. Of note, sensitivity analysis used the model that accounted for a decrease in quality of life.

Outpatient Initiation of Antiarrhythmic Therapy

Table 8A. Results of Sensitivity Analysis Assuming No Inpatient Antiarrhythmic Initiation Cost: One Pharmacological Cardioversion Attempt with Pharmacological Maintenance Therapy for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation (75 Years Old Without Risk Factors1)
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal Quality-Adjusted Life-YearsMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
CardioversionMaintenance($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
AElectricalNone4,1003.67 * * *
MElectricalQuinidine4,3903.712900.046,600
KElectricalAmiodarone5,1503.721,170 20.01 254,110 2
QElectricalSotalol5,6503.731,260 20.02 260,100 2
NElectricalFlecainide5,8303.721,440 20.01 2102,790 2
OElectricalPropafenone6,5203.742,140 20.03 268,810 2
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes, and previous history of thromboembolism

2

Compared with electrical cardioversion with quinidine maintenance therapy (M)

* Numeric comparisons are with this strategy unless otherwise noted

NOTES: QALY = Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

As noted previously, amiodarone was the only antiarrhythmic agent that was considered by our core experts to be a drug that could be started safely for a wide range of patients in the outpatient setting. This assumption accounted for most of the difference in cost among the strategies employing electrical cardioversion and pharmacological maintenance. If no cost of inpatient initiation was assumed, quinidine was the most cost-effective agent for maintenance of sinus rhythm (Table 8A). According to the calculated cost-effectiveness ratios, the higher medication costs of the other antiarrhythmic agents compared with quinidine were not worth the higher efficacy for maintenance therapy and the lower ventricular arrhythmia risk. However, our core experts expressed the most reservations about quinidine when discussing outpatient initiation of antiarrhythmic therapy because of the risks of ventricular arrhythmias.

Table 8B. Results of Sensitivity Analysis Assuming Four Days of Hospitalization for Antiarrhythmic Initiation: Comparison for One Cardioversion Attempt Versus Antithrombotic Therapy Without Cardioversion Attempt for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal Quality-Adjusted Life-YearsMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
55 years old, no risk factors1
Aspirin9504.17 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 24,9404.263,9900.0949,220
65 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin3,1503.87 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 26,5003.993,3600.1227,970
75 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin1,0203.68 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 24,7803.763,7600.0844,240
55 years old,3 one risk factor
Aspirin3,9903.90 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 27,1404.043,1500.1422,630
65 years old,3 one risk factor
Aspirin4,0603.65 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 26,9303.762,8740.1224,990
75 years old,3 one risk factor
Warfarin6,6603.13 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 38,6403.241,9800.1118,310
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes, and previous history of thromboembolism

2

Aspirin therapy for those who relapse to AF

3

Warfarin therapy for those who relapse to AF

* Numeric comparisons are with the aspirin strategy for that subgroup

NOTES: QALY= Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

In the overall comparison of whether to attempt cardioversion, outpatient initiation of antiarrhythmic therapy was assumed in the base case. If the cost of inpatient initiation was added, the cost-effectiveness ratios for electrical cardioversion with maintenance therapy compared with antithrombotic therapy increases (Table 8B). In fact, for two of the subgroups (55 and 75 years old without risk factors), the ratio was near the threshold of what is considered cost effective ($54,310/QALY and $49,080/QALY, respectively).

Time Horizon

Table 9A. Results for Sensitivity Analysis Assuming 20-Year Horizon: Comparison of Antithrombotic Therapy Strategies Without Cardioversion Attempt for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal EffectivenessMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
55 years old, no risk factors1
Aspirin7,18011.01
Warfarin14,63010.90Dominated 2 by aspirin
65 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin9,8208.55 * * *
Warfarin14,3808.674,5600.1238,010
75 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin2,5805.60
Warfarin7,4105.52Dominated 2 by aspirin
55 years old, > one risk factor
Aspirin14,9408.60 * * *
Warfarin17,8309.092,9000.515,700
65 years old, > one risk factor
Aspirin13,8106.72 * * *
Warfarin15,6806.971,8800.218,940
75 years old, > one risk factor
Aspirin13,9004.08Dominated 3 by warfarin
Warfarin11,9704.08
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes, and previous history of thromboembolism

The warfarin strategy has higher cost and lower effectiveness compared with the aspirin strategy

3

The aspirin strategy has higher cost and lower effectiveness compared with the warfarin strategy

* Numeric comparisons are with the aspirin strategy within that subgroup

NOTES: QALY = Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

A 5-year horizon was assumed in the base case analysis. Extending the time horizon for comparison of antithrombotic therapy to 20 years (Table 9A compared with the base case analysis of Table 6B), the aspirin strategy remains preferred for the lowest risk groups (55 and 75 years old without risk factors). However, the warfarin strategy becomes cost-effective for the three intermediate risk subgroups (65 years old without risk factors and 55 and 65 years old with risk factors). The warfarin strategy becomes dominant over aspirin in the subgroup that is 75 years old with risk factors. One explanation for this improvement in the overall cost-effectiveness of the warfarin strategy is that the absolute risk reduction with warfarin increases as the stroke risk increases with increased age.

Table 9B. Results of Sensitivity Analysis Assuming 20-Year Horizon: Comparison of One Cardioversion Attempt Versus Antithrombotic Therapy Without Cardioversion Attempt for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsMarginal CostMarginal Quality-Adjusted Life-YearsMarginal Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
55 years old, no risk factors1
Aspirin7,19011.01 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 210,69011.283,5000.2712,930
65 years old, no risk factors
Warfarin14,3808.67 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 314,7808.983900.321,240
75 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin2,5805.60 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 24,9605.762,3800.1614,800
55 years old, > one risk factor
Warfarin17,8309.09
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 316,0309.40Dominates 4 Warfarin
65 years old, > one risk factor
Warfarin15,6806.97 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 315,9307.192400.221,120
75 years old, > one risk factor
Warfarin11,9704.08 * * *
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance 312,4704.235000.153,390
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes, and previous history of thromboembolism

Aspirin therapy for those who relapse to AF

3

Warfarin therapy for those who relapse to AF

4

The electrical cardioversion with pharmacological maintenance has lower cost and higher effectiveness than the warfarin strategy

* Numeric comparisons are with this strategy within the subgroup

NOTES: QALY= Quality-adjusted life-years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

Extending the horizon to 20 years for the decision whether to attempt cardioversion or give antithrombotic therapy without cardioversion reveals improved cost-effectiveness for the electrical cardioversion with maintenance therapy strategy (Table 9B compared with Table 7B).

Other Sensitivity Analyses

In the antithrombotic therapy analysis, the only parameter varied in sensitivity analysis for patients 75 years old without risk factors that substantially changed the result was the ischemic stroke rate. As mentioned previously, this subgroup had a low base case rate (0.9 percent/year) as determined by the Atrial Fibrillation Investigators (Atrial Fibrillation Investigators, 1994). With the upper limit of the 95 percent confidence interval for this estimate (6.7 percent/year), the cost-effectiveness of the warfarin strategy was $28,480/QALY.

Table 10. Sensitivity Analysis for One Cardioversion Attempt Versus Warfarin Therapy for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation (75 years old with risk factors1)
Electrical Cardioversion with Pharmacological Maintenance (ECV/PM)Warfarin
VariableValueEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsIncremental Cost 2Incremental Quality-Adjusted Life-Years 2Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios 2
($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
CNS Bleed Rate0.15%/yr6,6403.266,1303.165200.105,380
1.8%/yr7.7603.207.,8203.05(65)0.16ECV/PM Dominates 3
Ischemic Stroke Risk on Warfarin Compared with No Treatment0.196,3503.285,6703.196900.097,310
0.487,5703.217,6103.08(45)0.14ECV/PM Dominates
Relative Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Sinus Rhythm Compared with AF0.26,4603.256,2603.132000.121,740
0.57,3603.226,3103.131,0500.0911,420
Relative Rate of Relapse to AF on Antiarrhythmic Agent Compared with No Treatment0.37,0403.296,6603.133800.162,350
0.857,0603.196,6603.134100.607,020
Rate of Ventricular Arrhythmia on Antiarrhythmic Agent0.12%/yr7,0603.256,6603.134100.123,360
1.2%/yr6,9803.226,6603.133200.083,760
Increased Mortality Due to Atrial Fibrillation8%7,2903.386,8703.274200.113,740
59%5,3103.106,3803.00(70)0.10ECV/PM Dominates
Increased Mortality Due to Risk Factors36%7,4503.446,9503.325000.124,140
117%6,4203.096,3502.99900.10930
Utility of Chronic Stroke Health State0.277,0003.126,6603.113400.103,390
0.777,0003.266,6603.203400.056,710
Utility for Having AF0.847,0003.096,6602.893400.201,750
17,0003.416,6603.383400.0312,670
Cost of Warfarin$45/mo5,9003.245,1803.137200.116,670
$108/mo7,6403.247,7703.13(130)0.11ECV/PM Dominates
Cost of Antiarrhythmic Agent$35/mo5,3603.246,2903.13(930)0.11ECV/PM Dominates
$151/mo7,8403.246,9503.13(880)0.118,180
Discount07,4803.467,1503.353300.122,870
7%6,4102.976,0702.873400.103,430
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes, and previous history of thromboembolism

2

Electrical cardioversion with pharmacological maintenance compared with warfarin

Electrical cardioversion with pharmacological maintenance has lower cost and higher effectiveness compared with warfarin

NOTES: QALY = Quality-adjusted life years. Costs rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

Similarly, for the decision whether to attempt cardioversion in patients 75 years old with risk factors, none of the variables tested substantially changed the results (Table 10). Specifically, the variables tested were the rate of central nervous system bleed on warfarin, the ischemic stroke risk reduction with warfarin, the ischemic stroke risk reduction with sinus rhythm, the relative rate of relapse to AF on antiarrhythmic agent, the rate of ventricular arrhythmia on antiarrhythmic agent, the increased mortality due to either AF or having risk factors, the utility of the chronic health state, the utility of being in AF, the cost of warfarin, and the cost of antiarrhythmic agent.

Echocardiography-Guided Antithrombotic Therapy

An external file that holds a picture, illustration, etc., usually as some form of binary object. The name of referred object is f3317_f062.jpg.

   Figure 62. Echocardiography-guided antithrombotic therapy

As discussed previously, the decision of which antithrombotic agent to use for the treatment of patients with AF involved a trade-off between risk of ischemic stroke and risk of bleed (as well as the cost and inconvenience of warfarin therapy). The cost-effectiveness of using transthoracic echocardiography and transesophageal echo¡cardiography to guide antithrombotic therapy was evaluated using data from the Atrial Fibrillation Investigators (Atrial Fibrillation Investigators, 1994) and from SPAF III (Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation III, 1996). A transthoracic echocardiography strategy option for all subgroups and a transesophageal echocardiography strategy option for the subgroups with risk factors were added and compared with the strategies employing aspirin or warfarin in all patients (Figure 62).

Table 11A. Results for Analysis Assuming No Decrease in Quality of Life for Taking Warfarin: Comparison of Echocardiography-Guided Antithrombotic Therapy Without Cardioversion Attempt for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsIncremental CostIncremental EffectivenessIncremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
55 years old, no risk factors1
Aspirin9504.18 * * *
Transthoracic Echocardiography1,4704.18Dominated 3
Warfarin4,9704.14Dominated 3
65 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin3,1503.87 * * *
Transthoracic Echocardiography3,8603.877100.00356,000
Warfarin5,9003.932,7500.0648,250
75 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin1,0203.68 * * *
Transthoracic Echocardiography1,6203.726000.0413,220
Warfarin4,4903.65Dominated 3
55 years old, > one risk factor
Aspirin3,9903.89 * * *
Transesophageal Echocardiography4,0504.00600.11540
Transthoracic Echocardiography4,7003.917100.0231,040 4
Warfarin6,3603.992,3700.1023,480 4
65 years old, > one risk factor
Aspirin4,0603.65 * * *
Transesophageal Echocardiography4,0803.74200.09210
Transthoracic Echocardiography4,5303.664700.0229,310 4
Warfarin6,3203.722,2600.0830,110 4
75 years old > one risk factor1
Aspirin6,1103.07 * * * 2
Transesophageal Echocardiography6,2903.151800.082,400 3
Transthoracic Echocardiography6,5803.094700.0221,280 4
Warfarin6,6603.185500.114,900 5

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes, and previous history of thromboembolism

Aspirin has lower cost and higher effectiveness compared with warfarin and transthoracic echocardiography

3

Strategy is dominated by the reference strategy (higher cost and lower effectiveness than standard)

4

Strategy is dominated by the transesophageal echocardiography strategy

The warfarin strategy costs $11,530/QALY compared with the transesophageal echocardiography strategy

* All comparisons with this standard strategy

NOTES: QALY = Quality-adjusted life years. Cost rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

In the analysis that did not account for a decrease in quality of life for taking warfarin, the transthoracic echocardiography strategy was not cost-effective for the subgroups of patients 55 or 65 years old without risk factors, but it was cost-effective for the subgroup of patients 75 years old without risk factors (Table 11A).

For the subgroups of patients 55 years old and 65 years old with risk factors, the transesophageal echocardiography strategy was most cost-effective. In fact, this strategy dominated the transthoracic echocardiography strategy and the warfarin strategy in these subgroups. Also, the CER compared with aspirin was under $600/QALY for each age group. For the subgroup of patients 75 years old with risk factors, the warfarin strategy was cost-effective ($11,530/QALY) compared with the transesophageal echocardiography strategy.

Table 11B. Base Case for Echocardiography-Guided Anithtrombotic Therapy Assuming No Cardioversion Attempt for Patients with New Onset Non-Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation
StrategyEstimated 5-Year CostsEstimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Over 5 YearsIncremental CostIncremental EffectivenessIncremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios
($)(QALY)($)(QALY)($/QALY)
55 years old, no risk factors1
Aspirin9504.17Dominates 2
Transthoracic Echocardiography1,4704.163
Warfarin4,9704.103
65 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin3,1503.87 *
Transthoracic Echocardiography3,8603.887100.0164,820
Warfarin5,9003.863
75 years old, no risk factors
Aspirin1,0203.68 *
Transthoracic Echocardiography1,6203.726000.0414,170
Warfarin4,4903.513
55 years old, > one risk factor
Aspirin3,9903.90 *
Transesophageal Echocardiography4,0503.97600.06910
Transthoracic Echocardiography4,7003.937100.0326,440 4
Warfarin6,3603.912,3700.01296,380 4
65 years old, > one risk factor
Aspirin4,0603.65 *
Transesophageal Echocardiography4,0803.72200.07250
Transthoracic Echocardiography4,5303.654700.00156,330 4
Warfarin6,3203.682,2600.0366,410 4
75 years old, > one risk factor
Aspirin6,1103.05 *
Transesophageal Echocardiography6,2903.161800.111,600
Transthoracic Echocardiography6,5803.104700.0410,590 4
Warfarin6,6603.135500.086,950 4
1

Risk factors include systolic hypertension, diabetes, and previous history of thromboembolism

2

Aspirin has lower cost and higher effectiveness compared with warfarin or transthoracic echocardiography

3

Strategy is dominated by reference strategy (higher cost and lower effectiveness than for reference)

4

Strategy is dominated by transesophageal echocardiography strategy

* Reference strategy for any numerical comparison

NOTES: QALY = Quality-adjusted life years. Cost rounded to the nearest $10 and QALYs rounded to the nearest 0.01.

In the analysis that accounted for a decrease in quality of life for taking warfarin, the aspirin strategy dominated the transthoracic echocardiography strategy for patients 55 years old without risk factors (Table 11B). However, for the other two subgroups without risk factors, the transthoracic echocardiography strategy was cost-effective. For these two latter subgroups, the ability to identify a higher risk subgroup for warfarin therapy resulted in improved outcomes and was worth the cost of transthoracic echocardiography.

For the subgroups with risk factors, the transesophageal echocardiography strategy was cost-effective compared with the aspirin strategy, and it dominated the warfarin and transthoracic echocardiography strategies. In other words, the ability of transesophageal echocardiography to risk-stratify these patients was worth the added cost.

Discussion

The results of this decision analysis strongly support at least one attempt of electrical cardioversion with subsequent antiarrhythmic maintenance therapy in all risk groups over the age of 55. However, some issues arose that influenced this analysis.

First, although electrical cardioversion was preferred over pharmacological conversion, conversion using ibutilide or flecainide was nearly as effective. The cost-effectiveness was influenced predominantly by the assumptions of increased cost due to inpatient services necessary for the initiation of the pharmacological agents, whereas electrical cardioversion could be performed in an outpatient setting.

Second, the choice of antiarrhythmic agent for subsequent maintenance of sinus rhythm was influenced less by the differing efficacies of the antiarrhythmic agents than by assumptions of safety regarding initiation of therapy. Unfortunately, few data are available regarding outpatient initiation of therapy. The indirect data that are available suggest a substantial incidence of arrhythmia in the first few days of therapy (Maisel, Kuntz, Reimold et al., 1997; Chung, Schweikert, Wikoff et al., 1998). These studies found life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias in about 1 to 2 percent of patients and worrisome arrhythmic complications in about 15 to 20 percent of patients. The relative rates of these incidences among different antiarrhythmic agents, particularly for amiodarone, are not known. Our assumption that amiodarone was the only agent that could be started safely as an outpatient strongly influenced the analysis, identifying amiodarone as the most cost-effective agent. However, amiodarone has not been tested adequately in randomized clinical trials. Thus, studies comparing the safety and efficacy of outpatient initiation of amiodarone with inpatient and outpatient initiation of different antiarrhythmic agents are needed to determine the appropriateness of outpatient-based approaches to the initial management of AF.

Third, the choice between warfarin and aspirin for stroke prevention was influenced strongly by the underlying risk of ischemic stroke. This risk for the model was obtained from a pooled analysis of the placebo arms of three large trials (Atrial Fibrillation Investigators, 1994). However, this pooled analysis found a "u-shaped" risk with increasing age for those without risk factors for thromboembolism. In other words, the risk was low (<1 percent/year) in patients 55 years old and 75 years old but higher (3.9 percent/year) in patients 65 years old. Although a true clinical explanation may be made (e.g., healthy survivor effect), the lower ischemic stroke risk for the older group may be due to the imprecision of the estimate due to small numbers of events. This lower ischemic stroke risk in the older cohort without risk factors influences many of the comparisons. This "u-shaped" risk pattern was not observed in those patients with risk factors.

Fourth, the effect of taking warfarin on quality of life also influences many of the comparisons. In particular, for the comparison between warfarin and aspirin when cardioversion is not attempted, if no decrease in quality of life due to taking warfarin is assumed, warfarin is cost-effective for most risk groups. Only in the low-risk groups-55 years old without risk factors and 75 years old without risk factors-is it cost-effective to use aspirin. However, if a decrease in quality of life due to taking warfarin is assumed, warfarin is cost-effective in only the highest risk group, 75 years old with risk factors. More information on how individual patients view the quality-of-life effects of warfarin would enhance the ability to tailor decisions to the preferences of individual patients.

Fifth, the choice of horizon presented a trade-off. Ideally, clinical decisions about management of non-postoperative AF should be made based on a long-time horizon; however, rarely did the data in the literature present outcomes after 5 years. In fact, the trials studying maintenance of sinus rhythm rarely followed patients longer than 1 year.

Sixth, the use of transthoracic echocardiography and transesophageal echocardiography to guide antithrombotic therapy is projected to increase the cost-effectiveness of conservative therapy (no cardioversion attempt). These results suggest that these modalities can be used to identify subgroups of patients where it may not be cost-effective to attempt cardioversion.

Finally, with regard to a technical consideration of Monte Carlo modeling, only a finite number of trials (5,000) were run for each comparison. Many of the comparisons showed minimal differences in the estimates of the outcomes, particularly for QALYs, between strategies. Small variations due to chance may have influenced some of the results. As stated previously, the standard error of the mean for the total cost estimates was approximately $80 and the standard error of the mean for the estimates of quality-adjusted survival was 0.02 QALYs.

Conclusions

  • One attempt of electrical cardi`oversion with pharmacological maintenance therapy is cost-effective compared with conservative antithrombotic therapy alone for all patients 55 years of age or older, regardless of risk factors.

  • If antiarrhythmic therapy can be started safely in an outpatient setting, the cost-effectiveness of an attempt of electrical cardioversion with pharmacological maintenance therapy is improved considerably. However, more research is needed in this area to determine the safety of this practice.

  • For patients at low risk of stroke (~1 percent/year), aspirin is the preferred therapy. For patients with a high risk of stroke (~10 percent/year), warfarin is the preferred strategy. For those with an intermediate risk of ischemic stroke (~3--6 percent/year), aspirin therapy is preferred if quality of life is assumed to be decreased by taking warfarin. If no decrease in quality of life is assumed, warfarin is preferred for the intermediate-risk groups.

  • Transthoracic echocardiography is projected to be a cost-effective test for guiding decisions about the choice of antithrombotic treatment in patients without risk factors for thromboembolism.

  • Transesophageal echocardiography is projected to be a cost-effective test for guiding decisions about the choice of antithrombolytic treatment in patients with risk factors for thromboembolism.

Future Research

The results of the decision analysis point out the need for additional research, including:

  • Determination of the quality-of-life effects of alternative treatment strategies for AF.

  • Investigation of the safety and cost of initiating antiarrhythmic therapy in the outpatient setting.

  • Randomized clinical trials of warfarin, aspirin, and other agents (e.g., ticlopidine, clopidogrel) in patient subgroups where the most uncertainty exists, such as low and intermediate risk of ischemic stroke and high risk of major bleeds.

  • Randomized clinical trials evaluating the effects on outcomes of using transthoracic and transesophageal echocardiography to help guide decisions about the choice of antithrombotic treatment.

Evidence Tables

Appendices

Appendix A. Technical Experts for Evidence Report on Management of Atrial Fibrillation

Core Experts

  • Hanan S. Bell, Ph.D., American Academy of Family Physicians

  • Ronald D. Berger, M.D., Ph.D., Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine

  • Gary Gerstenblith, M.D., Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine

  • David E. Haines, M.D., University of Virginia

  • Michael L. LeFevre, M.D., American Academy of Family Physicians

American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA)

  • Andrew E. Epstein, M.D., University of Alabama

  • Peter Kudenchuk, M.D., University of Washington

  • Douglas P. Zipes, M.D., Indiana University School of Medicine

American College of Physicians (ACP)

  • John Kastor, M.D., University of Maryland Medical System

  • Jerome A. Osheroff, M.D., Deputy Editor, Integrated Clinical Information Resources

  • David R. Goldmann, M.D., Editor-in-Chief, Physicians' Information and Educational Resource Project

American Heart Association (AHA)

  • Barbara Drew, R.N., Ph.D., School of Nursing, University of California at San Francisco

  • Kathleen McCauley, Ph.D., R.N., C.S., F.A.A.N., University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing

North American Society of Pacing and Electrophysiology (NASPE)

  • Robert J. Myerburg, M.D., University of Miami

  • Eric Prystowsky, M.D.

American Medical Association (AMA)

  • Naomi Kuznet, M.D.

Society for Medical Decision-Making (SMDM)

  • Randall Cebul, M.D., MetroHealth Medical Center

Food and Drug Administration (FDA)

  • Mitchell J. Shein

National Blue Cross/Blue Shield

  • Clifford Amend, M.D.

Mid-Atlantic Medical Services, Inc. (MAMSI)

  • Scott Cantor, M.D.

Other

  • Chris Burton, M.D., Consensus Conference on Atrial Fibrillation

  • Brian Gage, M.D., M.H.S., Washington University

Appendix B. Questionnaire Regarding New Onset Atrial Fibrillation

Name: ___________________________________________________________________

We at the Johns Hopkins University Evidence-Based Practice Center will be developing an evidence report on management of new onset atrial fibrillation. We would like to solicit input from experts from varied clinical perspectives on key questions regarding new onset atrial fibrillation. Please take a moment to assist us in identifying the most pertinent issues that need to be addressed in our study. Your feedback is most appreciated. Please return the survey by fax to Dr. Robert McNamara at (410) 955-0825 by November 1. Should you have any questions, please call us at (410) 614-4768 or e-mail us at rmcnamara@jhsph.edu.

The following nine questions regarding new onset atrial fibrillation are being considered for our study. Please write in the spaces provided any other questions that you think are particularly relevant or controversial. Please choose five questions that you deem as the most important and rank them in the order of importance (i.e., number 1 being the most important), including any additional questions you have written.

Appendix B. Questionnaire Regarding New Onset Atrial Fibrillation
Rank 1-5 1 = most importantPossible QuestionsComments
Which patients with new onset atrial fibrillation should receive attempts at cardioversion and which should receive only conservative treatment with rate control and thromboembolism prophylaxis?
What is the efficacy of electrical cardioversion alone compared with antiarrhythmic therapy alone compared with both together?
What is the risk/benefit ratio of each of the antiarrhythmic agents used in the management of atrial fibrillation?
How does anticoagulation compare to aspirin in preventing thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation?
Should transesophageal echocardiography be used to determine whether anticoagulation is necessary before cardioversion?
What should be included in the diagnostic work-up for new onset atrial fibrillation (e.g., thyroid function tests, echocardiography, etc.)?
What types of therapy for atrial fibrillation can safely be performed as an outpatient rather than as an inpatient?
What is the role of invasive therapy such as the surgical Maze procedure or atrial pacing with a permanent pacemaker?
What is the role of emerging therapy such as implantable atrial defibrillator, catheter-based maze procedure, or ablation of focal atrial fibrillation?
FAX to Robert L. McNamara (410) 955-0825

Below are four additional questions that may apply to any of the above general management questions. Write in the spaces provided any other questions that you think are particularly important to be assessed in an evidence report. Then, choose three questions that you deem as the most important and rank them in the order of importance (i.e., number 1 being the most important), including any additional questions you have written.

Rank 1-3 1= most importantThe most importance in an evidence report to be determined, the role of:Comments
age of the patient
duration of atrial fibrillation (e.g., sustained vs. paroxysmal)
degree of associated structural heart disease (as opposed to lone atrial fibrillation)
other (please specify)
other (please specify)
FAX to Robert L. McNamara (410) 955-0825

1. How might your organization use an evidence report on new onset atrial fibrillation? Check all that apply.

  • Would use report of facilitate development of new pratice guideline on management of atrial fibrillation

  • Would use report to assess the appropriateness of our organization's existing guidelines on management of atrial fibrillation

  • Would use report to prepare eductaional materials for physicians

  • Would use report to prepare educational materials for patients

  • Other (please specify)

  • Other (please specify)

2. Other comments?
________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Completed by: _________________________ __________________________________

Last Name First Name

Telephone #: (__) ___________________ Fax #: (__) __________________

Appendix C. Causal Pathway of Atrial Fibrillation

graphic element

Appendix D. Overall Topic Search Strategy for CENTRAL and MEDLINE

  • 1

    exp atrial fibrillation/

  • 2

    atrial fibrillat$.tw.

  • 3

    atrial flutter.tw,sh

  • 4

    or/1-3

Appendix E. Cochrane Optimal Search Strategy for Retrieval of Controlled Trials

Phase 1

  • 1

    randomized controlled trial.pt

  • 2

    controlled clinical trial.pt

  • 3

    randomized controlled trials/

  • 4

    random allocation/

  • 5

    double-blind method/

  • 6

    single-blind method/

  • 7

    or/1-6

  • 8

    animal/not human/

  • 9

    7 not 8

Appendix F. Additional Search Strategy for Key Question 4

What types of therapy can be safely administered as outpatient?

Database: Ovid Version 3.0, Medline <1966 - present> Searched on March 6, 1998

  • Overall Atrial Fibrillation

    • 1

      exp atrial fibrillation/

    • 2

      atrial fibrillat$.tw.

    • 3

      atrial flutter.tw,sh

    • 4

      or/1-3

  • Outpatient/

    • 5

      Outpatients/

    • 6

      outpatient$.tw.

    • 7

      5 or 6

    • 8

      clinic.tw.

    • 9

      office.tw.

    • 10

      8 or 9

  • Atrial Fibrillation and Outpatient/

    • 11

      4 and 7

    • 12

      4 and 10

    • 13

      11 or 12

    • 14

      limit 13 to english language

Appendix G. Additional Search Strategy for Key Question 5

What is the diagnostic value of tests, such as transesophageal echocardiography and transthoracic echocardiography, that can be used in the evaluation of new onset atrial fibrillation?

Database: Ovid Version 3.0, Medline <1966 - present> Searched on June 4, 1998

  • 1

    exp atrial fibrillation/

  • 2

    atrial fibrillat$.tw.

  • 3

    electric countershock/

  • 4

    cardiover$.tw.

  • 5

    thromboembolism/

  • 6

    thromboembol$.tw.

  • 7

    cerebrovascular disorders/

  • 8

    stroke$.tw.

  • 9

    1 or 2

  • 10

    3 or 4

  • 11

    5 or 6

  • 12

    7 or 8

  • 13

    11 or 12

  • 14

    9 and 10 and 13

  • 15

    limit 14 to human

  • 16

    limit 15 to english language

  • 17

    echocardiography/

  • 18

    echocardiograph$.tw.

  • 19

    17 or 18

  • 20

    9 and 19 and 13

  • 21

    limit 20 to human

  • 22

    limit 21 to english language

  • 23

    echocardiography, transesophageal/

  • 24

    transesophageal echocardiography.tw.

  • 25

    23 or 24

  • 26

    9 and 25 and 13

  • 27

    limit 26 to human

  • 28

    limit 27 to english language

  • 29

    9 and 19 and 10

  • 30

    limit 29 to human

  • 31

    limit 30 to english language

  • 32

    16 or 22 or 28 or 31

Appendix H. Abstract Review Form

Delete, because article: did not address management of atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter
  • did not address human data

  • only addressed post-op atrial fibrillation

  • Adults are not part of the study population

  • No original data

  • Others:_______________________________
    Do not go on if any of above items is checked

  • Article not in English

  • Cardioversion (Electric or Pharmacological) vs No Cardioversion (rate control, anticoagulation); Cardioversion vs None

  • Electric Cardioversion vs Pharmacological Cardioversion

  • Pharmacological Cardioversion or maintenance of sinus rhythm (drug vs drug, drug vs placebo)

  • ________________________Outpatient strategies

  • Clinical trial on different diagnostic strategies

  • ____Anticoagulation vs aspirin or vs placebo

  • ____Rate control (drug vs drug vs placebo)

  • not a controlled trial

  • This article does not apply to any of the above study questions.

  • However, get article for reference regarding
    ____________

*Secondary questions
  • Unclear: get article to decide

  • Invasive treatment

  • New invasive diagnostic tests

Any comments to be tagged ____________________________________________ ____________________________________________

Appendix I. Article Review Form

Conversion of AF and Maintenance of Sinus Rhythm

1. Article ID# ________________________

2. First author: _______________________

3. Reviewer's Name: ____________________

4. BASIC FEATURES:

  1. did NOT addresshuman data

  2. ONLY addressed post-op atrial fibrillation

  3. ONLY addressed refractory atrial fibrillation

  4. adults are NOT part of the population

  5. NO original data

  6. did NOT address pharmacologic or electrical management of atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter

  7. was NOT randomized or quasi-randomized
    (acceptable randomization includes random number generators OR using techniques like DOB, date of admission, hospital #, or an alternating scheme for assignment OR not stating exact method used although article describes the study as 'randomized')

  8. cannot separate subjects with atrial fibrillation from those with other arrhythmias

Do Not Go On If Any of the Above Items Is Checked

5. Type of study: *CIRCLE ALL THAT APPLY*

  • cardioversion (drug or DC) vs no cardioversion (rate control, anticoagulation)

  • DC cardioversion vs drug cardioversion

  • drug cardioversion and/or maintenance of sinus rhythm (drug vs drug vs placebo)

  • rate control (drug vs drug vs placebo)

  • 5

    other ( ............................................................................................................... )

Quality Assessment

I. Representativeness of Study Population

POINTS
6. Was the setting and population from which study sample drawn described and dates of study reported?
a. adequate (setting AND population described AND start date and end date specified)2
b. fair (one or more of these NOT reported OR poor descriptions)1
c. inadequate (not specified)0
d. not applicableNA
7. Were detailed inclusion/exclusion criteria provided, so as to allow replication?
a. adequate (detailed description of specific inclusion and exclusion criteria OR statement that all consecutive patients enrolled)2
b. fair (some description but would be difficult to replicate based on information provided)1
c. inadequate (minimal description or none at all)0
d. not applicableNA
8. Was a log of patients excluded/not participating provided?
a. adequate (all reasons for exclusion AND # excluded or no exclusions)2
b. fair (only one of above criteria specified or information not quite sufficient to allow replication)1
c. inadequate (none of above criteria specified)0
d. not applicable NA
9. Does the study describe patients' characteristics at enrollment in 3 key areas?
demographics: age gender race socioeconomic status
arrhythmia: type of atrial fibrillation (e.g. new onset, chronic, flutter, paroxysmal) duration of atrial fibrillation
co-morbidities: h/o HTN/CAD/MI/angina/rheumatic heart disease h/o DM/smoking h/o CVA/TIA baseline LV function or LA size NYHA class or CHF symptoms
a. adequate (>2 factors in all 3 key areas described)2
b. fair (1-2 factors in at least 2 areas described)1
c. inadequate (factors in 0-1 areas described)0
d. not applicableNA

II. Bias and Confounding

POINTS
10. Was assignment of patients to study groups randomized?
a. yes (investigators could not predict assignment)2
b. partial (used DOB, date of admission, hospital #, or alternating scheme for assignment OR did not state method of randomization1
c. not randomized0
d. unclear0
e. not applicableNA
11. Was there blinding of treatment supervisors, patients, and outcome assessors?
a. adequate (all three blinded, including all treatment arms)2
b. fair (only 2 of the 3 blinded, or some but not all of the armsblinded in all 3 ways)1.5
c. poor (only 1 of the 3 blinded)1
d. none of the 3 blinded or unknown0
e. not applicableNA
12. Did the groups have any important differences on key factors?
key factors:
  • age

  • gender

  • race

  • socioeconomic status

  • type of atrial fibrillation

  • h/o HTN/CAD/MI/angina/rheumatic heart disease

  • h/o DM/smoking

  • h/o CVA/TIA

  • baseline LV function or LA size

  • NYHA class or CHF symptoms

a. groups equivalent in all factors examined2
b. groups have an important difference on at least one factor1
c. analysis not done0
d. not applicable or impossibleNA

III. Description of Therapy

POINTS
13. 13. Was there a complete description of the primary therapeutic regimens used by each group?
a. adequate (protocol could be replicated given the completeness and detail-e.g., procedures, drugs, dose, route, duration)2
b. fair (some detail but insufficient to ensure replication)1
c. inadequate (very little or no detail)0
d. not applicableNA
14. 14. Was there an assessment of treatment compliance?
a. adequate (pill counts or drug levels)2
b. fair (surveys, phone calls, or other patient reports)1
c. not done or technique not reported0
d. not applicableNA
15. Was there a description of other ancillary medications/procedures given to each treatment group (e.g., coumadin, ASA, digoxin, cardioversion)?
a. adequate (e.g., drug name, dose, frequency, route, duration,procedure)2
b. fair (some description but would be difficult to replicate with information provided)1
c. inadequate (not described or not mentioned)0
d. not applicableNA
16. Were there any differences in ancillary medications/procedures between the treatment groups which could have affected results?
a. no differences (essentially the same)2
b. minor differences (minor differences in protocols)1
c. major differences or differences not discussed
(e.g. different drugs/procedures between groups)0
d. not applicableNA

IV. Outcomes and Follow-Up

POINTS
17. Which of the following outcomes were reported?
  • 1

    conversion to sinus rhythm

  • 2

    relapse of atrial fibrillation

  • 3

    decrease in resting heart rate

  • 4

    all cause mortality

  • 5

    CVD-specific mortality

  • 6

    MI

  • 7

    CVA

  • 8

    TIA

  • 9

    NYHA class or CHF symptoms

  • 10

    QOL measure

  • 11

    complications & side effects (hemorrhage, ventricular arrhythmias)

a. 6 - 11 of the above (>50% of the determined important outcomes)2
b. 3 - 5 of the above (25-50% of the determined important outcomes)1
c. 0 - 2 of the above (<25% of the determined important outcomes)0
18. Was there a description of the criteria for determining outcomes?
a. adequate (clear definitions of each outcome ANDexact techniques to assess the outcome)2
b. fair (only one of above provided)1
c. inadequate (neither provided)0
d. not applicableNA
19. Were the outcome assessment procedures objective?
a. adequate (e.g., Holter monitors, head CT/MRI)2
b. fair (e.g., patient reports, physician opinion)1
c. inadequate (no mention of evaluation methods)0
d. not applicableNA
20. Are there numbers, reasons, and outcomes of withdrawals?
a. numbers, reasons, and outcomes (or no withdrawals)2
b. only 1-2 of the 3 discussed1
c. none of the 3 discussed0
d. not applicableNA
21. What was the most withdrawals for any treatment group?
a. none2
b. < 10%2
c. 10 - 20%1
c. > 20%0
d. unknown0
e. not applicableNA
22. What was the planned length of followup?
a. > 12 months2
b. 1 - 12 months1
c. < 1 month0
d. not stated0
e. not applicable (e.g., study on acute conversion only)NA

V. Statistical Quality and Interpretation

POINTS
23. For primary endpoints, is the magnitude of difference between groups AND an index of variability (e.g., test statistic, p value, standard error, confidence interval) stated?
a. adequate (both reported with index of variabilityusing standard error or confidence intervals)2
b. fair (both reported with index of variability usingonly test statistic or p value)1
c. inadequate (one or both not reported)0
d. not applicableNA
24. Was the statistical test for all analyses clearly identified?
a. adequate (yes for all analyses)2
b. fair (yes for only some of the analyses)1
c. inadequate (not for any of the analyses)0
c. not applicableNA
25. For primary endpoints, was there assessment at multiple time points in the followup?
a. yes2
b. no0
c. not applicable (e.g., followup period very short)NA
26. If groups were not comparable at study onset, was there adjustment for potential confounders with multivariate or stratified analyses AND were confounders coded in a way to make such control adequate?
a. adequate (adjustment done AND confounders appropriately coded)2
b. fair (adjustment done BUT confounders not coded appropriately OR coding unclear)1
c. inadequate (adjustment not done)0
d. not applicableNA
27. Were cross-overs handled appropriately in analysis?
a. sensitivity analysis2
b. by intention to treat2
c. by 'treatment received' analysis only1
d. by none of the above0
e. unknown0
f. not applicableNA

Content Assessment

Basic Features

28. In what country was the study mainly performed?

  1. US

  2. Canada

  3. Europe

  4. >2 of the above

  5. other ( ............................................... )

  6. unknown

29. How many centers were involved?

  1. 1

  2. 2-5

  3. > 5

  4. unknown

30. - 31. years of study (i.e., data collection) ............................. to ...............................

32. list inclusion/exclusion criteria: (verbatim from article description)

INCLUSIONEXCLUSION
a.age
b.gender/race
c.type of atrial fibrillation (e.g., chronic, paroxysmal, flutter)
d.duration of atrial fibrillation
e.h/o HTN, CAD, MI, angina, valvular disease
f.h/o DM, smoking
g.h/o CVA, TIA
h.baseline LV function or LA size
i.NYHA class or CHF symptoms
j.h/o hyperthyroidism
k.other (please specify)

INCLUSIONEXCLUSION
DEMOGRAPHICSAGE
GENDER
RACE
ARRHYTHMIAAFIB ONLY
CHRONIC AFIB
PAROXYSMAL AFIB
FLUTTER
NEW-ONSET AFIB
OTHER
DURATION
HEART DISEASEH/O HTN
H/O CAD
H/O RECENT MI
H/O VALVULAR DISEASE
H/O ANGINA
BASELINE LVFUNCTION
BASELINE LA SIZE
NYHA CLASS
CHF SYMPTOMS
OTHER
CURRENTANTIARRYTHMIC USE
OTHER DISEASEH/O DM
H/O SMOKING
H/O CVA OR TIA
HEPATICDYSFUNCTION
ASTHMA/COPD
RENAL DYSFUNCTION
H/O THYROIDDISEASE
PREGNANCY/LACTATION
CHILDBEARING AGE
OTHER

INCLUSIONEXCLUSION
STATUSVENTRICULAR RATE
HEMODYNAMICINSTABILITY
CURRENT DIGOXINUSE
DIGOXIN TOXICITY
SYSTOLIC BP
OTHER
LABSPOTASSIUM
ELECTROLYTEABNORMALITY
MAGNESIUM
OTHER
EKGPRE-EXCITATION
2 OR 3 AV BLOCK
SICK SINUSSYNDROME
BUNDLE BRANCHBLOCK
QRS DURATION
QT INTERVAL
H/O TORSADES
OTHER
ALLERGIESALLERGIES

33. - 40. treatment groups:

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup Ecomments
33drug
34N
35initial dose (write in UNITS)
36initial route (0 = po, 1 = IV)
37maintenance dose (write in UNITS)
38maintenance frequency
39maintenance route (0 = po, 1 = IV)
40goal treatment duration (write in UNITS)

1. DC cardioversion7. propafenone13. digoxin
2. quinidine8. amiodarone14. placebo or 'usual care' or control
3. procainamide9. sotalol15. other (............................... )
4. disopyramide10. esmolol16. other (............................... )
5. flecainide11. verapamil17. other (............................... )
6. encainide12. diltiazem18. other (............................... )

41. Any important changes in protocols after study started? (please describe)

42. - 46. other medications/procedures given to ANY subjects in each treatment group: *CHECK ALL THAT APPLY*

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
42digoxin
43coumadin
44ASA
45DC cardioversion
46other (____________)

Patients

47. age range of subjects (years) ................................. to...................................
48. did the study do subgroup analysis by age? (0 = no, 1 = yes)
a. used < or > 65 yo.....................................
b. ages by decades.....................................
c. other: ___________________.....................................

49. - 51. age of subjects in years:

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup Eoverall
49mean age
50median age
51other method of reporting age (specify): ___________

52. type of population from which study subjects drawn: *CHECK ALL THAT APPLY*

  1. hospitalized patients

  2. generalist outpatient practices

  3. cardiology outpatient specialist practices

  4. other (............................................................ )

  5. not stated

53. - 56. study breakdown of atrial fibrillation duration:
(ex. <1 week: 20 in Group A, 19 in Group B; > 30 days: 12 in Group A, 22 in Group B)

durationGroup AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup Eoverall
53
54
55
56

57. - 75. baseline characteristics of subjects:

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup Eoverall
57# male
58# non-white
59# with prevalentangina, MI, CAD
60# with prevalentHTN
61# with prevalentDM
62# prevalentsmokers
63# with h/o CVA orTIA
64# with normal LV function (defined in study as ____________)
65# with normal LAsize (defined in study as ____________)
66mean LVfunction (write in EF vs SF)
67mean LA size (write in UNITS)
68# using other CVmeds at study onset (anticoagulation excluded)
69# in NYHA class IIIor IV
70# in chronicatrial fibrillation
71# with paroxysmalatrial fibrillation
72# with atrialflutter
73# with new onsetatrial fibrillation (no prior documented episodes)
74# withrheumatic/valvular heart disease
75# hyperthyroid

76. comments on any of the above characteristics:

Outcomes

77. Primary outcome (s) of the study: (main outcome (s) for which the study was powered)

*CIRCLE ALL THAT APPLY*
a. conversion to sinus rhythmg. CVA
b. relapse of atrial fibrillationh. TIA
c. decrease in resting heart ratei. improvement in NYHA class/CHF symptoms
d. all-cause mortalityj. improvement in QOL score
e. CVD-specific mortalityk. arrhythmia
f. MIl. other:______________________________

78. Were costs of the therapeutic regimens estimated in this report?

  1. yes

  2. no

79. Does this study evaluate the cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness of the therapeutic interventions?

  1. yes

  2. no

80. Did the study perform Kaplan Meier/survival or time to event analysis?

  1. yes

  2. no

81. - 82.

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup Ecomments
81goal time of F/U
82mean # relapses ofatrial fibrillation per patient (for paroxysmal AF)

83. conversion to sinus rhythm

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time toevent
OR
comments:

84. relapse of atrial fibrillation

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time toevent
OR
comments:

85. decrease in resting heart rate (if dichotomized, defined in study as )

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time toachieve target rate
OR
mean HR or mean HR graphic element
comments:

86. all-cause mortality

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time toevent
OR
comments:

87. CVD-specific mortality

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time toevent
OR
comments:

88. MI

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time toevent
OR
comments:

89. CVA related to electrical cardioversion

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
anticoagulatednumerator
anticoagulateddenominator
non-anticoagulatednumerator
non-anticoagulateddenominator
comments:

90. CVA, other than in the above question (#89)

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time to event
OR
comments:

91. TIA related to electrical cardioversion

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
anticoagulatednumerator
anticoagulateddenominator
non-anticoagulatednumerator
non-anticoagulateddenominator
OR
comments:

92. TIA, other than in the above question (#91)

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time to event
OR
comments:

93. improvement in NYHA class/CHF symptoms

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time to event
OR
comments:

94. improvement in QOL score (QOL measure: )

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time to event
OR
mean change in QOL score
comments:

95. life-threatening arrhythmias

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time to event
OR
comments: (list short-term life-threatening arrhythmias)

96. other arrhythmia (not atrial fibrillation)

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time to event
OR
comments: (list short-term other arrhythmias)

97. other side effects causing study withdrawal (i.e., hemorrhage, severe nausea)

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
numerator
denominator
mean time of F/U
median time to event
OR
comments: (list reported side effects)

98. Did the study report echocardiographic predictors of these outcomes?

CVA (0 = no, 1 = yes)
a. in stratified analysis______________
b. in regression model______________
c. other: ___________________________________________________
conversion to sinus rhythm
d. in stratified analysis______________
e. in regression model______________
f. other:____________________________________________________
other outcome: ____________________
g. in stratified analysis______________
h. in regression model______________
i. other:______________________________________

99. heart rate control in context of exercise tolerance

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup E
units measured (specify UNITS used e.g., VO2, distance walked)
units measured (specify UNITS used e.g., VO2, distance walked)
was method used a treadmill test/exercise stress test (EST)?
was method used a test of walking distance?
comments: (e.g., EST protocol used, average minutes accomplished)

100. Do you know of other publications about this same trial in the literature?

  1. yes (trial name or pertinent authors or article ID:__________________________)

  2. no

Appendix J. Article Review Form

Article I.D. #______

Antithrombotic Therapy

1. Article I.D. #

2. First Author

3. Reviewer's Name

4. Basic Features:

  1. did NOT address human data

  2. ONLY addressed post-operative atrial fibrillation

  3. adults are NOT part of the population

  4. NO original data

  5. did NOT address anti-coagulation in atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter

  6. NO randomization or quasi-randomization such as with random numbers, alternating pattern, dates of entry, dates of birth, chart numbers

DO NOT GO ON IF ANY OF THE ABOVE ITEMS ARE CHECKED

5. Type of study:

  1. Long term anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation

  2. Short term anticoagulation around the time of cardioversion

Quality Assessment

Instructions: Circle the letter of the one best response.

Representativeness

Points
6. Is there a description of the setting and the population from which the study participants were drawn and the period of time over which they were enrolled?
a. Adequate (description of setting, population, and time)2
b. Fair (inadequate description of one)1
c. Inadequate (inadequate description of more than one)0
d. Not applicableNA
7. Is there a detailed description of both the inclusion and exclusion criteria to allow for replication?
a. Adequate (there is a detailed description of specific inclusion and exclusion criteria, or there is a statement that all consecutive patients were enrolled)2
b. Fair (there is description of inclusion and exclusion criteria but would be difficult to replicate based on information presented)1
c. Inadequate (minimal description or none at all)0
d. Not applicableNA
8. Is there a log and description of the patients excluded from the study?
a. Adequate (complete description of excluded subjects or no exclusions)2
b. Fair (log or description or detail sufficient to allow replication)1
c. Inadequate (no log or description)0
d. Not applicableNA
9. Are the characteristics of the study population described?
· demographics
  • age

  • gender

  • race

  • socioeconomic status

· arrhythmia
  • type [flutter, fibrillation, paroxysmal, chronic]

  • duration of condition

· comorbidities
  • history of CVA, HTN, smoking, diabetes, coronary artery disease,rheumatic heart disease, valvular disease

a. Adequate (describes two or more variables in each category)2
b. Fair (describes one or two variables in two or more categories)1
c. Inadequate (only one or no category described adequately)0
d. Not applicableNA

Bias and Confounding

Points
10. Was assignment of patients to groups randomized?
a. Yes (investigators could not predict assignment)2
b. Questionable (used chart numbers, alternating pattern, dates of entry, dates of birth, or other method susceptible to selection bias)1
c. No0
d. Not applicableNA
11. How complete was the blinding?
a. Very complete (treatment supervisors, patients, and outcomes evaluators blinded and all arms of the study were blinded)2
b. Fairly complete (only two of the three were blinded or not all of the arms were blinded)1
c. Incomplete (no blinding)0
d. Unknown0
e. Not applicableNA
12. Do the groups have important differences in any one of the following characteristics?
  • Age

  • Sex

  • Race

  • Socioeconomic status

  • % with only A. fibrillation

  • % with only A. flutter

  • % with mixed fib./flutter

  • % with paroxysmal A. fib

  • HTN

  • DM

  • History of stroke or TIA

  • CHF

  • Smoking

  • Aspirin use

  • Angina

  • Peripheral vascular disease

  • MI

  • Carotid bruit

  • Rheumatic heart disease

a. No differences in any of the variables examined2
b. Some differences (differences in one of the above variables)1
c. Major differences (differences in two or more of the above variables)0
d. Analysis not presented or unknown0
e. Not applicableNA

Description of Therapy

Points
13. Is there complete description of the primary therapeutic regimens used by each group?
a. Adequate (protocol could be replicated given the completeness and detail of the description-e.g., procedures, drugs, dose, duration)2
b. Fair (major intervention is described but insufficient detail to ensure replication)1
c. Inadequate (very little or no detail)0
d. Not applicableNA
14. Is there assessment of compliance with treatment?
a. Adequate (documentation with pill counts or with PT/INR)2
b. Fair (likely compliance, documentation by patient report or survey)1
c. Inadequate (poor or undocumented assessment)0
d. Not applicableNA
15. Is there a description of other therapies given to the groups?
a. Adequate (complete description of use of aspirin, anti-platelet agents, anti-coagulants, antiarrhythmics, or explicit statement that these were not used)2
b. Fair (partial description of other medications or treatments used)1
c. Inadequate (not discussed)0
d. Not applicableNA
16. Are there differences in the ancillary therapies received by the groups?
a. No differences in therapy2
b. Minor differences in therapy (dose or duration differences in ancillary medications or modest differences in therapy)1
c. Major differences in therapy (ancillary medication or therapy used in one group that could influence outcome, or no documentation)0
d. Not applicableNA

Outcome Assessment and Followup

Points
17. Which of the following clinical outcomes were reported?
graphic element stroke graphic element deaths from stroke
graphic element hemorrhage graphic element deaths from hemorrhage
graphic element emboli graphic element deaths from emboli (excluding cerebral)
graphic element myocardial infarction graphic element deaths from myocardial infarction
graphic element deaths from all causes graphic element quality of life
a. > 5 of the above (> 50% of the outcomes defined as important)2
b. 3-4 of the above (25%-50% of the outcomes defined as important)1
c. 0-1 of the above (< 25% of the outcomes defined as important) 0
18. Was there a description of the criteria for determining outcomes?
a. Adequate (provides clear definitions of each outcome and the means of assessing the outcome) 2
b. Fair (defines the outcomes, but no description of the means of assessment) 1
c. Inadequate (unclear what outcomes are being assessed) 0
d. Not applicable NA
19. Were the means of determining all major outcomes objective?
a. Yes (e.g., determined cerebral event with CT or MRI, quantified blood transfused, Doppler, or angiography to detect emboli) 2
b. Fair (used clinical judgment without objective measure for one or more outcomes) 1
c. No (no objective means of diagnosis or not described) 0
d. Not applicable NA
20. Are data presented on the numbers, reasons, and outcomes of withdrawals?
a. Yes (all three presented or no withdrawals) 2
b. Fair (one or two of the three described) 1
c. No (no description of withdrawals) 0
d. Not applicable NA
21. What was the greatest percentage of withdrawal from either group?
a. None (no withdrawals) 2
b. <10% 2
c. 10%-20% 1
d. >20% 0
e. Not applicable NA
22. What was the planned duration of followup?
a. > 12 months 2
b. 1 month to 12 months 1
c. < 1 month 0
d. unreported or unknown 0
e. Not applicable NA

Statistical Analysis

Points
23. For major endpoints, were the essential measurements of statisticalsignificance presented?
a. Adequate (reports magnitude of effect and reports variability with confidence intervals or standard error) 2
b. Fair (reports magnitude of effect but reports variability with test statistic or p value only) 1
c. Inadequate (one or both not reported) 0
d. Not applicable NA
24. Were the statistical methods clearly identified for all analyses?
a. Adequate (description of methods for all analyses) 2
b. Fair (description of methods for major outcomes only) 1
c. Inadequate (little or no description of statistical methods) 0
d. Not applicable NA
25. For the major outcomes, was there assessment at multiple time points during the followup time?
a. Yes 2
b. No 0
c. Not applicable (e.g., followup period very short) NA
26. Were confounders adjusted for in the analysis if there were differences in the groups at the time of randomization?
a. Yes (multivariate analysis or stratified analysis was performed, with confounders coded appropriately for control of confounding) 2
b. Possibly (multivariate analysis done but confounders coded suboptimally or unclearly, or possibility of residual confounding) 1
c. No (analysis was not done) 0
d. Not applicable (e.g., no differences at time of randomization) NA
27. How were cross-overs handled in the analysis?
a. Adequately (analyzed by intention-to-treat with a sensitivity analysis comparing this to analysis by treatment received) 2
b. Adequately (analyzed by intention-to-treat without sensitivity analysis) 2
c. Fair (analyzed by treatment received only) 1
d. Poorly (analyzed by another method)