The flow diagram shows how a clinical diagnosis is made starting from the patient's phenotype and then, depending on the mode of inheritance and the state of genetic knowledge, various means are deployed for counseling and predictive tests.
The flow diagram shows how a clinical diagnosis is made starting from the patient's phenotype and then, depending on the mode of inheritance and the state of genetic knowledge, various means are deployed for counseling and predictive tests.
Direct testing is almost always done by PCR, applying the methods described in Section 6.2. The few applications of Southern blotting include testing for major gene rearrangements or disruptions and for Fragile X and myotonic dystrophy full mutations (Boxes 16.7 and 16.8). The sensitivity of PCR allows us to use a wide range of tissue samples. These can include the following:
Blood samples - the most widely used source of DNA from adults.
Mouthwashes or buccal scrapes - being noninvasive, they are especially favored for population screening programs. Mouthwashes yield sufficient DNA for a few dozen tests, and by using whole genome amplification (Section 6.2.4) more extensive testing of a single sample may be possible.
Chorionic villus biopsy samples - the best source of fetal DNA (better than amniocentesis specimens).
One or two cells removed from eight-cell stage embryos, for pre-implantation diagnosis after in vitro fertilization.
Hair, semen, etc. for criminal investigations.
Archived pathological specimens, for typing dead people when no DNA has been stored, or testing tumors for genetic changes. Only short sequences, 250 bp or less, can be reliably amplified from fixed tissue specimens.
Guthrie cards - these are the cards on which a spot of dried blood is sent to a laboratory for neonatal screening for phenylketonuria (PKU) in the UK and elsewhere; not all the blood spot is used for the screening test. They are a possible source of DNA from a dead child.
| Method | Advantages | Disadvantages |
|---|---|---|
| Southern blot, hybridize to cDNA probe | Only way to detect major deletions and rearrangements | Laborious, expensive |
| Needs several μg of DNA | ||
| Sequencing | Detects all changes | Expensive; can be hard to interpret |
| Mutations fully characterized | ||
| Heteroduplex gel mobility | Very simple, cheap | Sequences <200 bp only |
| Limited sensitivity | ||
| Does not reveal position of change | ||
| Denaturing HPLC | Quick, high throughput; quantitative | Expensive equipment |
| Does not reveal position of change | ||
| Single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) analysis | Simple, cheap equipment | Sequences <200 bp only |
| Limited sensitivity | ||
| Does not reveal position of change | ||
| Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) | High sensitivity | Choice of primers is critical |
| Expensive primers | ||
| Does not reveal position of change | ||
| Dideoxy fingerprinting | High sensitivity | Complicated to interpret |
| Mismatch cleavage | ||
| (i) chemical | High sensitivity | Toxic chemicals |
| Shows position of change | Experimentally difficult | |
| (ii) enzymatic | No nasty reagents | Poor quality results |
| Protein truncation test (PTT) | High sensitivity for chain terminating mutations | Chain terminating mutations only |
| Shows position of change | Expensive | |
| Experimentally difficult | ||
| Usually needs RNA | ||
| Oligonucleotide arrays (gene chips): | Both types: | Both types: |
| (i) hybridization arrays | Quick | Novel technology still under development |
| (ii) minisequencing arrays | High throughput | Expensive equipment |
| Might detect and define all changes | Limited range of genes |
A protein-based functional assay might classify the products of a highly heterogeneous allelic series into two simple groups, functional and nonfunctional - which is, after all, the essential question in most diagnoses. The problem with functional assays is that they are specific to a particular protein. DNA technology by contrast is generic. This has obvious advantages for the diagnostic lab, but in addition it encourages technical development, since any new technique can be applied to many problems.
| Disease | Cause | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Huntington disease, myotonic dystrophy | Gain of function mutation | Unstable expanded repeat (see Box 16.7) |
| Fragile X | Common molecular mechanism: expansion of an unstable repeat | See Boxes 16.7 and 16.8; other mutations occur, but are rare |
| Achondroplasia | Only G380R produces this particular phenotype; very high mutation rate | Two distinct changes, both causing G380R in FGFR3 gene (Figure 16.8) |
| Sickle cell disease | Only this particular mutation produces the sickle-cell phenotype | E6V in HBB gene (see Figure 5.11) |
| α- and β-thalassemia | Selection for heterozygotes leads to different ancestral mutations being common in different populations | See Figure 16.2 (α-thalassemia) and Table 17.2 (β-thalassemia) |
| Cystic fibrosis | Common ancestral mutations in northern European populations; ancient heterozygote advantage | See Table 17.3 and Section 3.3.2 |
| Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (HMSN1) | Common molecular mechanism: recombination between misaligned repeats | Duplication of 1.5 Mb at 17p11.2 (Figure 16.7); point mutations also occur |
| 21-Hydroxylase deficiency | Common molecular mechanism: sequence exchange with adjacent closely related pseudogene | See Figure 9.17 |
| Tay-Sachs disease | Founder effect in Ashkenazi Jews; ancient heterozygote advantage | Two common HEXA mutations in Ashkenazi: 4-bp insertion in exon11 (73%); exon 11 donor splice site G>C (15%) |
See Section 16.3 for further discussion of the reasons why some diseases show a limited range of mutations, while others have extensive allelic heterogeneity.
the disease depends on a specific molecular mechanism;
the nature of the gene is such that one particular mutation occurs repeatedly;
affected people mostly carry the same ancestral disease mutation, or one of a limited number of ancestral mutations.
Testing for these diseases starts with checking for specific mutations, using one of the methods described in Section 17.1.3.
Four families each have a child affected with a recessive disease. Direct mutation testing is not possible (either because the gene has not been cloned, or because the mutations could not be found). (A) No diagnosis is possible if there is no sample from the affected child. (B) If everybody has the same heterozygous genotype for the marker, the result is not clinically useful. (C) If the parents are homozygous for the marker, no prediction is possible with this marker. (D) Successful prediction. The error rates shown are the risk of predicting an unaffected pregnancy when the fetus is affected, or vice versa, if the marker used shows a recombination fraction θ with the disease locus. These examples emphasize the need for both an appropriate pedigree structure (DNA must be available from the affected child) and informative marker types.
Results of screening 10 000 people, 1:23 of whom is a carrier. If a person tests positive, his/her spouse is then tested. Black figures show results using a test which detects 70% of CF mutations (i.e. testing for F508del only); blue figures show results for a test with 90% sensitivity. Blue boxes represent cases which would be seen as successes for the screening program (regardless of what action they then take), gray boxes represent failures. PND, prenatal diagnosis.
| Method | Comments |
|---|---|
| Restriction digestion of PCR-amplified DNA; check size of products on a gel (Figure 6.6) | Only when the mutation creates or abolishes a
natural restriction site, or one engineered by use of special
PCR primers (Figure
17.2 |
| Hybridize PCR-amplified DNA to allele-specific oligonucleotides (ASO) on a dot-blot or gene chip | General method for specified point mutations; large arrays allow scanning for any mutation |
| PCR using allele-specific primers (ARMS test) | General method for point mutations; primer design
critical (Figure
17.3 |
| Can be adapted to chip technology. Can provide real-time quantitative readout, using TaqMan technology (Figure 6.10) | |
| Oligonucleotide ligation assay (OLA) | General method for specified point mutations (Figure 17.4 |
| PCR with primers located either side of a translocation breakpoint | Successful amplification shows presence of the suspected deletion or specified rearrangement |
| Check size of expanded repeat | Dynamic repeat diseases (Box 16.7) only; large expansions require Southern blots, smaller ones can be done by PCR |
See Section 6.2.3 for description of the principles.
diseases with limited allelic heterogeneity, such as those discussed above;
diagnosis within a family. Mutation scanning methods may be needed to define the family mutation but, once it is characterized, other family members normally need be tested only for that particular mutation;
in research, for testing control samples. A common problem in positional cloning is that a candidate gene has been identified, and a patient has a sequence change in this gene. The question then arises, is this change pathogenic (confirming that this gene is indeed the disease gene), or might it be a nonpathogenic polymorphism (see Section 16.3.4)? One common approach is to screen a panel of 100 or so normal control samples for the presence of the change (which does not, of course, solve the problem of rare neutral variants).
Under suitably stringent hybridization conditions, these short synthetic probes hybridize only to a perfectly matched sequence (see Figure 5.10). Figure 5.11 demonstrates the use of dot-blot hybridization with ASO probes to detect the single base substitution that causes sickle cell disease. For diagnostic purposes, a reverse dot-blot procedure has often been used. A screen for a series of defined cystic fibrosis mutations, for example, would use a series of ASOs specific for each mutant allele, spotted onto a single membrane which is then hybridized to labeled PCR-amplified test DNA. Recently reverse dot-blotting has developed from manually-spotted arrays of small numbers of ASOs to very large ASO arrays on ‘gene chips’ that can potentially detect all possible mutations in a gene (Section 17.1.4).
The ARMS principle can be adapted to allow the course of a quantitative PCR reaction to be followed in real time, using TaqMan or related fluorescer-quencher methods (Section 6.2.3).
The requirements for routine diagnostic and for research use are rather different. Researchers usually want to screen a small number of samples for mutations in several candidate genes as quickly as possible. They are not worried if the methods require several days of benchwork or high levels of skill, but they do not want to invest much effort in fine-tuning a method for a particular gene. Sequencing and heteroduplex/SSCP analysis have been the methods most frequently used. Diagnostic laboratories grew up in a research culture and inherited the same attitudes, but increasingly now they need methods for testing a large number of samples for mutations in just a few genes, with as near 100% sensitivity as possible. Time can be spent optimizing a test for a particular gene, provided the method once developed is quick and simple. Methods particularly suited to this approach include DGGE, two-dimensional gels, the protein truncation test, and many commercial kits.
For routine diagnostic use, all these methods suffer in varying degree from two limitations:
They are quite laborious and expensive for use in a diagnostic service that needs to produce answers quickly and within a modest budget.
They detect differences between the patient's sequence and the published ‘normal’ sequence - but they do not generally distinguish between pathogenic and chance nonpathogenic changes.
It seems likely that eventually oligonucleotide arrays of one sort or another (DNA chips) will replace most other methods for routine mutation scanning in the commoner diseases, and automated sequencing will be increasingly used for the rarer diseases, where the investment to produce custom chips is not warranted. Widespread use of these methods will highlight the problem of deciding whether a sequence change is pathogenic or not (Box 16.4). Hopefully, advancing knowledge of gene function and the development of disease-specific mutation databases will make this task easier. Nevertheless, at least for the next few years, testing for unknown mutations in a service laboratory remains a considerable problem.
(A) A base substitution in exon 3. The double peak (arrow) in the upper trace shows the sample contains the mutation 332C>T (amino acid substitution P67L) in heterozygous form. Careful quality control is needed to allow heterozygous base substitutions to be reliably distinguished from noise. (B) A single base deletion 3659delC in exon 19 (lower trace). Sequence downstream of the deletion is confused, reflecting overlapping sequence of the two alleles in this heterozygote. The change would be confirmed by sequencing the reverse strand. Courtesy of Dr Andrew Wallace, St Mary's Hospital, Manchester.
Many tests use the properties of heteroduplexes to detect differences between two sequences. Most mutations occur in heterozygous form, and heteroduplexes can be formed simply by heating the test PCR product to denature it, and then cooling slowly. For homozygous mutations, or X-linked mutations in males, it is necessary to add some reference wild-type DNA. Several properties of heteroduplexes can be exploited:
Each exon of the CFTR gene (except exon 9, which in this protocol is sequenced directly) is PCR-amplified in one or more segments and run on 9% polyacrylamide gels containing a gradient of urea-formaldehyde denaturant. Bands contain exons as labeled. The band from any amplicon that contains a heterozygous variant splits into usually four sub-bands (arrows). Individual 1 (left lane in each panel) has variants in amplicons 6, 10 and 14; individual B (right lane) has variants in amplicons 3, 10, 13, 16, 17 and 24. Characterization of the variants showed that individual 1 was heterozygous for F508del (exon 10), and individual 2 was a compound heterozygote E60X (exon 3) / R1070Q (exon 17). Other variants were nonpathogenic. Courtesy of Dr Hans Scheffer, University of Groningen, Netherlands.
The test sample, PCR-amplified exon 13 of the CFTR gene, was denatured and allowed to renature. Because a mutation is present in heterozygous form, heteroduplexes are formed, and these are cleaved by treatment with OsO4 (or KMnO4) or hydroxylamine. Running on a fluorescence sequencer shows the full-length fragment (906 bp) plus cleavage products of 357 and 549 bp. Sequencing revealed the mutation 2184delA. Courtesy of Dr Julie Wu, St Mary's Hospital, Manchester.
Coding sequence without introns (cDNA or large exons in genomic DNA) is PCR amplified using a special forward primer that includes a T7 promoter, a eukaryotic translation initiator with an ATG start codon, and a gene-specific 3′ sequence designed so that the sequence amplified reads in-frame from the ATG. A coupled transcription-translation system is used to produce polypeptide from the PCR product, and the protein is checked for size by SDS-PAGE gel electrophoresis. A truncated polypeptide points to the presence of a premature stop codon. In this example, RT-PCR product from two males with DMD has been analyzed. Patient 1 exons 58–68 give normal (47 kDa) product only (lane 2) but exons 67–79 (lane 3) encode a 30 kDa truncated product (arrow) - the band is very faint in this example. In patient 2 exons 58–68 give a truncated product of 22 kDa (lane 5); exons 67–79 give normal (48 kDa) product only (lane 6). Sequencing revealed mutations 10431 + 1G>A and 9405C>A in the two patients. Photo courtesy of Drs Steve Abbs and Zandra Hatton, Medical and Molecular Genetics, Guy's Hospital, London.
(A) Principles of mutation detection by hybridization to an oligonucleotide array. Oligonucleotides are arrayed in sets of four, with each set corresponding to part of the wild-type sequence and to each of the three possible base substitutions at a central position in the oligo. The mismatches to the wild-type sequence are underlined. The mutant sequence has an A>C substitution at position 13. Nucleotides with mismatches to the mutant sequence are in lower case. The number of mismatches and strength of hybridization to the wild-type and mutant sequences are shown on the right. Oligos with one mismatch hybridize weakly; those with two mismatches do not hybridize. When hybridized to the normal DNA, the sequence can be read off as a series of strongly hybridizing cells. With the mutant DNA, the chip will show an area of diminished hybridization with one strongly hybridizing cell marking the substituted base (lower panel). (B) Principles of miniseqencing array. Each cell of the array contains an oligonucleotide anchored by its 5′end, corresponding to part of the target sequence. PCR-amplified target DNA is hybridized to the array. It acts as a template for extension of the primers. Each primer is extended by a single nucleotide, using color-labeled dideoxynucleotides. The result of using the A>C mutation as above is shown. The blue label added to primer 4 identifies the changed base. Primer 5 will fail to add any label because of the mismatched 3′ end.
Hybridization chips contain oligonucleotides matching all wild-type and single nucleotide substitution sequences in a gene. Test DNA is PCR-amplified, fluorescently labeled and hybridized to the array, either alone or (preferably) in competition with a reference wild-type sequence, labeled with a different color. Trials of these designs have achieved over 90% mutation detection in blind trials of BRCA1 and ATM samples (Hacia, 1999). In general these designs detect homozygous base substitutions well, but miss a few heterozygous substitutions and have major problems with insertion mutations.
Minisequencing chips use arrayed oligonucleotide primers with free 3′-OH groups. Unlabeled PCR-amplified test DNA is hybridized to the array, and DNA polymerase plus four differently labeled dideoxynucleotides are added. The test DNA acts as template for addition of a single labeled dideoxynucleotide to each array primer. As in an ARMS reaction, addition will occur only if the 3′ end of the primer exactly matches the template. The array could be made with primers specific not only for the wild-type sequence but also for all possible mutations. This technology has been less extensively tested than hybridization array technology because the chemistry used to produce most large arrays to date anchors the 3′ end of the oligonucleotide to the support, leaving a free 5′ end.
The emerging technology of gene chips promises to revolutionize mutation scanning, as well as other branches of human molecular genetics, but the revolution has not yet happened. Mutation detection arrays face a more difficult problem than expression arrays - the anchored probes are shorter, so specific hybridization is more difficult to achieve, and the test DNA must be PCR-amplified, unlike expression arrays, which can use total cellular poly(A) RNA. The current state of the art has been well reviewed by Hacia (1999).
| Cystic fibrosis | Duchenne muscular dystrophy |
|---|---|
| Autosomal recessive | X-linked recessive |
| Loss of function mutations | Loss of function mutations |
| Fairly large gene: | Giant gene: |
250 kb genomic DNA | 2400 kb genomic DNA |
27 exons | 79 exons |
6.5 kb mRNA | 14 kb mRNA |
| Almost all mutations are single nucleotide changes | 65% of mutations are deletions encompassing one or more complete exons |
| 5% duplications | |
| 30% nonsense, splice site, etc. mutations | |
| Missense mutations are very unusual | |
| New mutations are extremely rare | New mutations are very frequent |
| Mosaicism is not a problem | Mosaicism is common |
| Little intragenic recombination | Recombination hotspot (12% between markers at either end of the gene) |
Genetic testing in DMD and CF require different sets of approaches
(A) Products of multiplex PCR amplification of nine exons, using samples from 10 unrelated patients with Duchenne/Becker muscular dystrophy. PCR primers have been designed so that each exon, with some flanking intron sequence, gives a different sized PCR product. Courtesy of Dr R. Mountford, Liverpool Women's Hospital. (B) Interpretation: solid lines show exons definitely deleted, dotted lines show possible extent of deletion running into untested exons. No deletion is seen in samples 7 and 9 - these patients may have point mutations, or deletions of exons not examined in this test. Exon sizes and spacing are not to scale.
Detecting deletions in females, for carrier testing, is much more difficult because the normal X chromosome masks any deletion present on the other X. Sequences deleted on one X will show a 50% reduction in dosage compared to nondeleted sequences, and this can be detected by quantitative PCR or quantitative Southern blotting. Very careful work is needed to get a result sufficiently unambiguous that a woman could prudently base reproductive decisions on it. A principal requirement for quantitative PCR is to restrict the number of cycles, so that the reaction does not reach a plateau; methods that use competitive reactions are also more likely to be reliably quantitative. Fluorescence sequencing machines, with their inherently quantitative mode of operation and their ability to measure small quantities of product, are probably the best tool for detecting carriers of deletions and duplications (Yau et al., 1996).
The affected boy III-1 has a deletion which includes STR45 (lane 7 of the gel is blank). His mother II-2 and his aunt II-3 inherited no allele of STR45 from their mother I-2, showing that the deletion is being transmitted in the family. I-2 is apparently homozygous for this highly polymorphic marker (lane 2), but in fact is hemizygous. The other aunt II-4 and the sister III-2 are heterozygous for the marker, and therefore do not carry the deletion.
The family has been typed for two polymorphisms A and B that flank the dystrophin locus. III-2 can have inherited DMD only if she has one recombination between marker A and DMD and another between DMD and marker B. If the recombination fractions are θA and θB respectively, then the probability of a double recombinant is of the order θAθB, which typically will be well under 1%. III-1 has a recombination between marker locus A and DMD.
To complete the list of problems posed by DMD, there is a high frequency of new mutations. The mutation-selection equilibrium calculations in Box 3.5 show that for any lethal X-linked recessive condition (f = 0), 1/3 of cases are fresh mutations. Therefore the mother of an isolated DMD boy has only a 2/3 chance of being a carrier. This greatly complicates the risk calculations that are necessary for interpreting gene tracking results. The interested reader should consult the book by Bridge (Further reading) for example calculations. Moreover, as shown in Figure 3.7, the first mutation carrier in a DMD pedigree is very often a mosaic (male or female). This raises yet more problems, both for risk estimation and for interpretation of the results of direct testing.
Gene tracking was historically the first type of DNA diagnostic method to be widely used. Most of the mendelian diseases that form the bread-and-butter work of diagnostic laboratories went through a phase of gene tracking, then moved on to direct tests once the genes were cloned. Huntington disease, cystic fibrosis and myotonic dystrophy are familiar examples. A similar progression is likely with any disease that is studied by the classic approach of linkage analysis followed by positional cloning. However, the progression is not inevitable. With some diseases, even though the gene has been cloned, mutations are hard to find. In some cases the known mutations are scattered widely over a large gene and, for others, mutation detection, for unknown reasons, has not so far been very successful. Thus gene tracking using linked markers still has its place in modern molecular diagnosis.
Box 17.1 illustrates the essential logic of gene tracking. This logic can be applied to diseases with any mode of inheritance. Always there is at least one parent who could have passed on the disease allele to the proband, and who may or may not have done so. The process always follows the three steps:
distinguish the two chromosomes in the relevant parent(s) - i.e. find a closely linked marker for which they are heterozygous;
determine phase - i.e. work out which chromosome carries the disease allele;
work out which chromosome the consultand received.
The prerequisites for gene tracking are:
the disease should be adequately mapped, so that markers can be used that are known to be tightly linked to the disease locus; and
the pedigree structure and sample availability must allow determination of phase.
Nowadays, informativeness of the marker is not usually a big problem. With over 10 000 highly polymorphic microsatellites mapped across the human genome, it is almost always possible to find an informative marker that maps close to the disease locus.
Because the DNA marker used for gene tracking is not the sequence that causes the disease, there is always the possibility of making a wrong prediction if recombination separates the disease and the marker. The recombination fraction, and hence the error rate, can be estimated from family studies by standard linkage analysis (Chapter 11). With almost any disease there should be a good choice of markers showing less than 1% recombination with the disease locus. This follows from the observations that one nucleotide in 500 is polymorphic, and that loci 1 Mb apart show approximately 1% recombination (Section 11.1.4). Ideally one uses an intragenic marker, such as a microsatellite within an intron. The special problem of the DMD recombination hotspot has been mentioned above.
Unlike direct testing, gene tracking always involves a calculation. Factors to be taken into account in assessing the final risk include:
the probability of disease-marker and marker-marker recombination;
uncertainty, due to imperfect pedigree structure or limited informativeness of the markers, about who transmitted what marker allele to whom (see Figure 11.4C for an example);
uncertainty as to whether somebody in the pedigree carries a newly mutant disease allele (see Figure 3.7 for an example of this problem in DMD).
Two alternative methods are available for performing the calculation.
For simple pedigrees, Bayesian calculations give a quick answer, but for more complex pedigrees the calculations can get very elaborate. Few people feel fully confident of their ability to work through a complex pedigree correctly, although the attempt is a valuable mental exercise for teasing out the factors contributing to the final risk. An alternative is to use a linkage analysis program.
Given information on any two of these subjects, the program can calculate the third. For linkage analysis, the program is given (A) and (B), and calculates (C). For calculating genetic risks, the program is given (B) and (C), and calculates (A).

For estimating the risk that a proband carries a disease gene, we calculate the ratio:

| Requirement | Examples and comments |
|---|---|
| A positive result must lead to some useful action |
|
| The whole program must be socially and ethically acceptable |
|
| The test must have high sensitivity and specificity |
|
| The benefits of the program must outweigh its costs |
|
The most important single function of any screening program is to produce some useful outcome. It is quite unacceptable to tell people out of the blue that they are at risk of something unpleasant, unless the knowledge enables them to do something about the risk. Proposals to screen for genes conferring susceptibility to breast cancer or heart attacks must be assessed stringently against this criterion. Predictive testing for HD might appear to break this rule - but it is offered only to people who are at high risk of HD and who are suffering such agonies of uncertainty that they request a predictive test, and persist despite counseling in which all the disadvantages are pointed out.
Ideally the useful outcome is treatment, as in neonatal screening for phenylketonuria. Increased medical surveillance is a useful outcome only if it greatly improves the prognosis. A special case is screening for carrier status, where the outcome is the possibility of avoiding the birth of an affected child. People unwilling to accept prenatal diagnosis and termination of affected pregnancies would not see this as a useful outcome, and in general should not be screened.
Ethical issues in genetic population screening have been discussed by a committee of distinguished American geneticists, clinicians, lawyers and theologians, and the reader is referred to their report for a very detailed survey (Andrews et al., 1994). It is in the nature of ethical problems that they have no solutions, but certain principles emerge.
Any program must be voluntary, with subjects taking the positive decision to opt in.
Programs must respect the autonomy and privacy of the subject.
People who score positive on the test must not be pressured into any particular course of action. For example, in countries with insurance-based health care systems, it would be unacceptable for insurance companies to put pressure on carrier couples to accept prenatal diagnosis, or financial pressure or inducements to terminate affected pregnancies.
Information should be confidential. This may seem obvious, but it can be a difficult issue - we like to think that drivers of heavy trucks or jumbo jets have been tested for all possible risks. Societies with insurance-based health care systems have particular problems about the confidentiality of genetic data, since insurance companies will argue that they are penalizing low-risk people by not loading the premiums of high-risk people.
Compared with the ethical problems, the technical questions in population screening are fairly simple. The performance of a test can be measured by its sensitivity and specificity (Figure 17.17
| Prevalence of condition | True positives in population screened | True positives detected by screening | True negatives in population screened | False positives detected by screening | Ratio of true:total positives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1000 | 1000 | 990 | 999 000 | 9990 | 0.09 |
| 1/10 000 | 100 | 99 | 999 900 | 9999 | 0.0098 |
| 1/100 000 | 10 | 10 | 999 990 | 10 000 | 0.001 |
In a laboratory trial on a panel of 100 affected and 100 control people, this hypothetical test was 99% accurate: it gave a positive result for 99% of true positives, and a negative result for 99% of true negatives. The table shows results of screening 1 million people. The great majority of all people positive on the test are false positives. Such a test is unlikely to be acceptable socially or viable financially for any mendelian disease (these typically affect less than 1 person in 1000).
It is clear that simply testing for the commonest mutation, F508del, would not produce an acceptable program. Almost as many affected children would be born to couples negative on the screening program as would be detected by the screening. Whether or not such a program were financially cost-effective, it would surely be socially unacceptable. What constitutes an acceptable program is harder to define. One suggestion focuses on ‘+/-’ couples (i.e. couples with one known carrier and the partner negative on all the tests). The partner still might be a carrier of a rare mutation. Professor LP Ten Kate suggested that an acceptable screening program is one in which the risk for such +/- couples is no higher than the general population risk before screening. That would require a sensitivity of about 95%.
Assuming the proposed program looks ethically acceptable and cost-effective, who should be screened? Three examples highlight some of the options.
All babies in the UK are tested a few days after birth for PKU. A blood spot from a heel-prick is collected on a card (the Guthrie card) during a home visit and sent to a central laboratory. The phenylalanine level in the blood is measured by chromatography or a bacterial growth test. This is the screening test. Babies whose level is above a threshold are called in for a definitive diagnostic test. Only a small proportion eventually turn out to have PKU. The lack of informed consent on the part of the infant is justified by the benefit it receives from dietary treatment (Smith, 1993).
Carriers of β-thalassemia can be detected by conventional hematological testing, either before marriage or in the antenatal clinic. Carrier-carrier couples can be offered prenatal diagnosis by DNA analysis. Pre-implantation diagnosis or fetal stem-cell transplants may become alternatives to termination of affected pregnancies. Two ethnic groups in the UK have a high incidence of β-thalassemia: Cypriots and Pakistanis. Screening was quickly accepted by Cypriots in the UK but uptake has been slower among Pakistanis. The comparison illustrates the complex social questions surrounding genetic screening and the relevance of cultural background (Gill and Modell, 1998). Importantly, long-term studies of the Cypriot community show how the success of screening can be measured, not by counts of affected fetuses aborted, but by counts of couples having normal families. Before screening was available, many carrier couples opted to have no children; now they are using screening and having normal families (Modell et al., 1984).
It is now technically feasible and financially worthwhile to screen northern European populations to detect CF carriers. Surveys in the UK suggest that most carrier-carrier couples would opt for prenatal diagnosis and would value the opportunity to ensure that they did not have affected children. This view might change if treatment becomes more effective, for example using gene therapy.
| Group tested | Advantages | Disadvantages |
|---|---|---|
| Neonates | Easily organized | No consequences for 20 years |
| Many families would forget the result | ||
| Unethical to test children | ||
| School leavers | Easily organized | Difficult to conduct ethically |
| Inform people before they start relationships | Risk of stigmatization of carriers | |
| Couples from physician's lists | Couple is unit of risk | Difficult to control quality of counseling |
| Stresses physician's role in preventitive medicine | ||
| Allows time for decisions | ||
| Women in antenatal clinic | Easily organized | Bombshell effect for carriers |
| Rapid results | Partner may be unavailable | |
| Time pressure on laboratory | ||
| Adult volunteers (‘drop-in CF center’) | Few ethical problems | Bad framework for counseling |
| No targeting to suitable users | ||
| May be inefficient use of resources |
We use the term DNA profiling to refer to the general use of DNA tests to establish identity or relationships. DNA fingerprinting is reserved for the technique invented by Jeffreys et al. (1985) using multilocus probes. For more detail on this whole area, the reader should consult the book by Evett and Weir (Further reading).
(A) A paternity test. ‘Fingerprints’ are shown from the mother (M), child (C) and two possible fathers (F1, F2). The DNA fingerprint of F1 contains all the paternal bands found in the child, whereas that of F2 contains only one of the paternal bands. (B) A rape case. The ‘fingerprint’ of suspect 1 exactly matches that from the semen sample S on a vaginal swab from the victim. As a result of this evidence, Suspect 1 was charged with rape and found guilty. Photograph courtesy of Cellmark Diagnostics, Abingdon, Oxfordshire.
Minisatellite probes recognize single-locus variable tandem repeats on Southern blots. Each probe should reveal two bands in any person's DNA, representing the two alleles. Profiling is based on four to ten different polymorphisms. These probes allow exact calculations of probabilities (of paternity, of the suspect not being the rapist, etc.), if the gene frequency of each allele in the population is known. For matching alleles between different gel tracks, the continuously variable distance along the gel has to be divided into a number of ‘bins’. Bands falling within the same bin are deemed to match. It is imperative that the criteria used for judging matches in each profiling test should be the same binning criteria that were used to calculate the population frequencies of each allele. The binning criteria can be arbitrary within certain limits, but they must be consistent. Minor variations within repeated units of some minisatellites potentially allow an almost infinite variety of alleles to be discriminated, so that the genotype at a single locus might suffice to identify an individual (Jeffreys et al., 1991).
Microsatellite polymorphisms (Section 7.4.3) are based on short tandem repeats, usually di-, tri- or tetranucleotides. They have the advantages over minisatellites that they can be typed by PCR and that discrete alleles can be defined unambiguously by the precise repeat number. This avoids the binning problem and makes it easier to relate the results to population gene frequencies.
For tracing relationships to dead persons, Y-chromosome and mitochondrial DNA polymorphisms are especially useful because of their sex-specific pattern of transmission. An interesting example was the identification of the remains of the Russian Tsar and his family, killed by the Bolsheviks in 1917, by comparing DNA profiles of excavated remains with living distant relatives (Gill et al., 1994).
In studying nonmendelian characters (Chapter 19), and sometimes in genetic counseling, it is important to know whether a pair of twins are monozygotic (MZ, identical) or dizygotic (DZ, fraternal). Traditional methods depended on an assessment of phenotypic resemblance or on the condition of the membranes at birth (twins contained within a single chorion are always MZ, though the converse is not true). Errors in zygosity determination systematically inflate heritability estimates for nonmendelian characters, because very similar DZ twins are wrongly counted as MZ, while very different MZ twins are wrongly scored as DZ.
Genetic markers provide a much more reliable test of zygosity. The extensive literature on using blood groups for this purpose is summarized by Race and Sanger (1975). DNA profiling is nowadays the method of choice. The Jeffreys fingerprinting probe allows a very simple test - samples from MZ twins look like the same sample loaded twice, and samples from DZ twins show some differences. An error rate could be calculated from empirical data on band sharing by unrelated people, using some defined binning strategy (see above).
When single-locus markers are used, if twins give the same types, then for each locus, the probability that DZ twins would type alike is calculated. If the parents have been typed, this follows from mendelian principles; otherwise the probability of DZ twins typing the same must be calculated for each possible parental mating and weighted by the probability of that mating calculated from population gene frequencies. The resultant probabilities for each (unlinked) locus are multiplied, to give an overall likelihood PI that DZ twins would give the same results with all the markers used. The probability that the twins are MZ is then:

where m is the proportion of twins in the population who are MZ (about 0.4 for like-sex pairs). Sample calculations are given in Appendix 4 of Vogel and Motulsky (Further reading).
Excluding paternity is fairly simple - if the child has a marker allele not present in either the mother or alleged father then, barring new mutations, the alleged father is not the biological father. Proving paternity is, in principle, impossible - one can never prove that there is not another man in the world who could have given the child that particular set of marker alleles. All one can do is establish a probability of nonpaternity that is low enough to satisfy the courts and, if possible, the putative father.
The odds that the alleged father, rather than a random member of the population, is the true father are 1/2:q3, where q3 is the gene frequency of A3. A series of n unlinked markers would be used and, if paternity were not excluded, the odds would be (1/2)n : qA.qB.qC...qN.
DNA profiling for forensic purposes follows the same principles as paternity testing. Scene-of-crime material (bloodstains, hairs or a vaginal swab from a rape victim) are typed and matched to a DNA sample from the suspect. If the bands don't match, the suspect is excluded. One of the most powerful applications of DNA profiling is for preventing miscarriages of justice. If the bands do all match, the odds that the criminal is the suspect rather than a random member of the population can be calculated, based on the allele frequencies in the population. Of course, if the alternative were the suspect's brother, the odds would look very different. The fate of DNA evidence in courts provides a fascinating insight into the difference between scientific and legal cultures. There are at least three stumbling blocks for DNA data.
The jury may simply not believe, or perhaps choose to ignore, the DNA data, as evidently happened in the OJ Simpson trial. A fascinating account of the DNA evidence is given by Weir (1995).
The jury may be led into a false probability argument, the so-called Prosecutor's Fallacy. Suppose a suspect's DNA profile matches the scene-of-crime sample. The Prosecutor's Fallacy confuses two different probabilities:
the probability the suspect is innocent, given the match;
the probability of a match, given that the suspect is innocent.
The jury should consider the first probability, not the second.

The prosecutor would no doubt be happy to see the jury use 106 instead of 0.9 for the probability that the suspect is innocent! Given the Bayesian argument, it is clear that a forensic test needs PM | I to be 10-10 or less if it is to be able to convict a suspect on DNA evidence alone.
Objections may be raised to some of the principles by which DNA-based probabilities are calculated.
The multiplicative principle, that the overall probabilities can be obtained by multiplying the individual probability for each band or locus, depends on the assumption that bands are independent. If the population were actually stratified into reproductively isolated groups, each of whom tended to have a particular subset of bands or alleles, the calculation would be misleading. This is serious because it is the multiplicative principle that allows such exceedingly definite likelihoods to be given.
For single-locus markers, the probability depends on the gene frequencies. DNA profiling laboratories maintain databases of gene frequencies - but were these determined in an appropriate ethnic group for the case being considered? Taken to extremes, this argument implies that the DNA evidence might identify the criminal as belonging to a particular ethnic group, but would not show which member of the group it was who committed the crime.
These issues have been debated at great length, especially in the American courts. Both objections are valid in principle, but the question is whether they make enough difference to matter. General opinion is that they do not. It would be ironic if courts, seeing opposing expert witnesses giving odds of correct identification differing a million-fold (105:1 versus 1011:1), were to decide that DNA evidence is hopelessly unreliable, and turn instead to eye-witness identification (odds of correct identification < 50:50).
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