Slide 3. Modeling Natural History.

Slide 3Modeling Natural History

SLIDE 3 NOTES: The model is also a multi-disease model. By that I mean two things. First, although the model is intended to simulate a general population, it recognizes the inherent variation among individuals in the risk of developing adenomas and cancer. Thus, each individual has his own probability of acquiring one more adenomas.

Second, adenomas are simulated as distinct occurrences in the same person. One or more can occur simultaneously or over time. For example, a person's simulated natural history might be programmed to develop a non-progressive adenoma in the rectum at one time, and another progressive adenoma in the transverse colon at another time. Each of these events will have their own independent history until a first cancer is detected in that simulated individual.

From: Appendix F, MISCAN-colon: An Overview

Cover of Economic Models of Colorectal Cancer Screening in Average-Risk Adults
Economic Models of Colorectal Cancer Screening in Average-Risk Adults: Workshop Summary.
Institute of Medicine (US); National Research Council (US); Pignone M, Russell L, Wagner J, editors.
Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2005.
Copyright © 2005, National Academy of Sciences.

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