Table 14Model Development Performance Characteristics (Europe): External Validation

Cohort AbbreviationCohort OutcomeModel NameGroup NameAUCAUC VarianceHosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-FitO/E Ratio
χ2P
SHHECCVD11/CVD2 (10 yr)FRS (1991)59Men0.720.71
Women0.740.65
PDSTotal CHD3/Total CHD1FRS (1991)73All0.660.58-0.731.46
All (Exclude LVH)0.670.59-0.741.50
Men0.730.64-0.811.71
Women0.700.64-0.761.36
Treated BP0.670.54-0.8019.80.011.71
Untreated BP0.660.57-0.7622.6<0.011.44
PDSCVD13/CVD2FRS (1991)73All0.670.61-0.731.48
All (Exclude LVH)0.680.62-0.741.51
Men0.670.59-0.751.54
Women0.680.58-0.781.40
Treated BP0.630.53-0.7432.8<0.011.67
Untreated BP0.690.61-0.7739.5<0.011.38
BRHSHard CHD1 + Stroke1 + DM2/Total CHD1 (20 yrs)FRS (1991)65Men0.670.65-0.692.5
Hard CHD1/Total CHD1 (10 yrs)FRS (1991)65Men0.730.71-0.75
Hard CHD1/Total CHD1 (20 yrs)FRS (1991)65Men0.680.66-0.70
Stroke1/Total CHD1 (10 yrs)FRS (1991)65Men0.710.65-0.77
Stroke1/Total CHD1 (20 yrs)FRS (1991)65Men0.660.62-0.70
DM2/Total CHD1 (10 yrs)FRS (1991)65Men0.610.55-0.67
DM2//Total CHD1 (20 yrs)FRS (1991)65Men0.60.56-0.64
L85CVD Mortality/CVD2FRS (1991)102All0.530.42-0.63
Cardiff DMCVD2FRS (1991)85Men0.640.82
Women0.660.86
NZWorkCVD2 (5 yrs)FRS (1991)89Men0.740.73-0.751.17
Women0.770.74-0.801.09
QRESEARCHCVD4/CVD2 (10 yr)FRS (1991)43Men0.760.68
Women0.770.83
BWHHTotal CHD3/Total CHD1FRS (1991)64All0.630.59-0.670.97
CVD11/CVD2FRS (1991)64All0.640.61-0.680.65
QRESEARCHCVD10/CVD2 (10 yr)FRS (1991)43Men0.760.76-0.77
Women0.780.77-0.78
THINCVD10/CVD2 (10 yr)FRS (1991)43Men0.740.73-0.740.76
Women0.760.76-0.760.91
MP-CVDRFCVD Mortality/CVD2 (10 yr)FRS (1991)106All0.860.84-0.88
High-risk Patients0.800.77-0.82
SBP >140 mmHg0.790.75-0.83
TC >6.5 mmol/L0.810.77-0.85
Smokers0.690.65-0.74
PROCAMHard CHD1*FRS (1991)92Men0.730.70-0.750.56
Women0.880.80-0.960.35
Renfrew-PaisleyCVD Mortality/CVD2FRS (1991)66All0.730.72-0.75
Manual Labor0.720.70-0.74
Non-manual Labor0.740.71-0.781.71
PREDICTCVD19/CVD2FRS (1991)108All0.630.55-0.71
AboriginalTotal CHD1FRS (1991)77Men2.00
Women3.92
BRHSCHD MortalityFRS (1991) CHD Mortality88Men30.2<0.010.68
BRHSTotal CHD1FRS (1991)88Men155<0.010.64
INSIGHTCVD14/CVD2FRS (1991)94All0.39
INSIGHTTotal CHD1FRS (1991)94All0.44
LudwigUHard CHD1/CVD MortalitySCORE (?)40All0.660.62-0.68
SHHECCVD11 (10 yr)ASSIGN59Men0.730.79
Women0.770.67
PDSTotal CHD3/Hard CHD1UKPDS 5673All0.670.60-0.741.15
Men0.670.59-0.761.11
Women0.620.49-0.751.19
Treated BP0.700.58-0.821.26
Untreated BP0.650.56-0.7417.10.031.09
VHM&PPCVD MortalitySCORE (Low Risk TC)68All0.800.79-0.820.73
Men0.760.74-0.790.84
Women0.780.74-0.820.52
VHM&PPCHD Mortality/CVD MortalitySCORE (Low Risk TC)68Men0.750.72-0.780.79
Women0.840.80-0.880.46
QRESEARCHCVD4/CVD11 (10 yr)ASSIGN46Men0.760.73
Women0.780.73
CP-NorwayCVD MortalitySCORE (High Risk TC)44Men0.650.45
Women0.680.37
NCSCVD MortalitySCORE (High Risk TC)44Men (40-49 yrs)0.670.53
Men (50-59 yrs)0.680.53
Women (40-49 yrs)0.660.60
Women (50-59 yrs)0.720.45
MP-CVDRFCVD Mortality (10 yr)SCORE (?)106All0.850.83-0.87
High-risk Patients0.750.72-0.78
SBP >140 mmHg0.760.72-0.81
TC >6.5 mmol/L0.780.73-0.82
Smokers0.620.55-0.68
QRESEARCHCVD1/CVD4QRISK43Men0.790.79-0.79
Women0.810.81-0.81
NHS TrustCVD18/Hard CHD1PROCAM (Cox)78All0.670.62-0.732.79
CVD18/Hard CHD1UKPDS 5678All0.740.70-0.781.20
Total CHD2/Hard CHD1PROCAM (Cox)78All0.650.59-0.712.05
Total CHD2/Hard CHD1UKPDS 5678All0.760.72-0.801.60
EPIC-NorfolkTotal CHD1FRS [TC] (1998)36Men0.710.69-0.73
Women0.710.68-0.74
LudwigUHard CHD1PROCAM (Cox)40All0.650.62-0.68
FRS (ATP-III)40All0.630.59-0.65
RotterdamHard CHD1FRS (ATP-III)48Men0.630.52-0.740.72
Women0.730.65-0.831.02
STULONGTotal CHD1FRS [TC] (1998)56All0.63858.4-69.11.282
VERIFICATotal CHD1FRS [TC] (1998)58Men110<0.01
Women0.6864<0.010.45
Patients w/Diabetes0.7354<0.010.44
NHS TrustCVD18/CVDJBSRC78All0.800.75-0.85
CVD18/CVDCRM78All0.760.72-0.792.30
Total CHD2JBSRC78All0.770.74-0.80
Total CHD2CRM78All0.730.70-0.771.74
NPHS-IIHard CHD2/Hard CHD1FRS (ATP-III)71All0.620.58-0.660.47
PRIME-BelfastTotal CHD1/Hard CHD1 (5 yr)FRS (ATP-III)90All0.660.75
Hard CHD1 (5 yr)PROCAM (Cox)90All0.610.56
PRIME-FranceTotal CHD1/Hard CHD1 (5 yr)FRS (ATP-III)90All0.680.67
Hard CHD1 (5 yr)PROCAM (Cox)90All0.640.23
PREDICTCVD19/Hard CHD1
Total CHD2/Hard CHD1
UKPDS 56108All0.670.60-0.75
UKPDS 56108All0.630.56-0.71
LyonCVD6/Total CHD1FRS [Unknown Version] (1998)72All0.721.36
ULSAM (70)CVD Mortality/Total CHD1FRS [Unknown Version] (1998)50All0.58
ULSAMMI/Hard CHD1PROCAM (Cox)80Men0.63
FRS (ATP-III)80Men0.61
CUOREHard CHD2/Total CHD1FRS [TC] (1998)76Men0.7230.67-0.780.33
RCCCVD3/Total CHD1FRS [?] (1998)69All0.73
Age >70 yrs0.68
MONICA-AugsburgHard CHD1/Total CHD1FRS [?] (1998)86All0.74
PROCAMHard CHD1FRS (ATP-III)14All0.7844<0.01
NPHS-IIHard CHD2/Hard CHD1PROCAM (Cox)71All0.630.59-0.670.46
SU.VI.MAXTotal CHD1FRS [?] (1998)110All0.740.50
MunichDMMI/Hard CHD1UKPDS 56104All0.660.62-0.68
FRS [?] (1998)104All0.630.59-0.66
SalfordHard CHD1DARTS63All0.690.58-0.78
THINCVD10/CVD4 (10 yr)QRISK43Men0.760.76-0.771.15
Women0.790.79-0.791.11
MONICA-AugsburgHard CHD1/CVD2FRS (1991)92Men0.780.73-0.84
Women (55-64 yrs)0.880.80-0.960.50
NHP–EuropeStroke Mortality/Stroke4FRS (1991) Stroke74All3.91
INSIGHTStroke4FRS (1991) Stroke94All1.00
WESDRStroke Mortality/CVD2FRS (1991)96All1.79
DubboCVD4 (10 yr)FRS (ATP-III)93Non-DM Men0.91
Non-DM Women0.93
WESDRStroke Mortality/StrokeUKPSD 6096All1.14
ULSAMHard CHD1 (10 yr)FRS (ATP-III)80All0.21
PROCAM (Cox)80All0.27
NHP–EuropeCHD MortalitySCORE (Unknown Version)74All3.24
FrRenalTotal CHD1FRS [?] (1998)82All1.69
MünsterWorkHard CHD1Procam (Cox)29Men0.78
QRESEARCHCVD1FRS (1991) NICE Recal35Men0.780.78-0.78
Women0.800.80-0.80
EPIC-NorfolkTotal CHD1FRS (1998) EPIC36Men0.720.70-0.75
Women0.800.78-0.83
VERIFICATotal CHD1FRS (1998) REGICORMen0.695.10.081.26
VERIFICA58Women0.812.70.261.03
CUOREHard CHD2FRS (1998 TC) D'Ag CUORE76Men0.720.67-0.7827.1<0.010.78
PROCAM (Cox) D'Ag CUORE76Men0.740.68-0.79220<0.010.34
FRS (1998 TC) Chb CUORE76Men0.720.67-0.7819.90.011.01
PROCAM (Cox) Chb CUORE76Men0.740.68-0.7953.0<0.011.01
Cardiff DMCVD2FRS (1991) Cardiff DM85Men0.65
Women0.68
BRHSCHD MortalityFRS (1991) BRHS88Men3.40.91
Total CHD124.6<0.01
VERIFICATotal CHD1FRS (1998) REGICORPatients w/Diabetes
VERIFICA581.40.99
*

The model outcome was calculated using the sum of MI and sudden CHD death models from FRS (Anderson).

Note: If the cohort and model outcomes match, only one outcome is listed; otherwise both are listed.

The model outcome was calculated using the sum of MI and sudden CHD death models from FRS (Anderson).

From: 3, Results

Cover of Systematic Review of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment Tools
Systematic Review of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment Tools [Internet].
Evidence Syntheses/Technology Assessments, No. 85.
Matheny M, McPheeters ML, Glasser A, et al.

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