TABLE 3-12Summary of Results of Epidemic Simulation Runs Showing the Effects of “No Response” Scenarios 1 and 2 and Response Scenarios 3–10 on Epidemics Initiated by the Introduction of 500 Smallpox Cases into 50,000-Person Towns

ScenarioSingle Uniform Town Ring of Six Towns
CasesDeathsNew VaccinationsDuration (days)CasesDeathsNew VaccinationsDuration (days)
Mean (SD)Mean (SD)Mean (SD)Mean (SD)Mean (SD)Mean (SD)Mean (SD)Mean (SD)
No response
146,474.6 (109.3)14,641.7 (117.9)NA (NA)1,280.8 (159.6)46,463.7 (100.0)14,623.4 (66.2)NA (NA)1,204.5 (139.3)
226,915.2 (819.4)8,435.3 (288.6)NA (NA)453.2 (30.4)27,103.0 (784.3)8,476.0 (220.60NA (NA)531.7 (77.2)
Response
31,609.5 (90.2)415.6 (29.6)8,780.7 (445.2)104.3 (13.1)1,563.6 (95.4)406.8 (28.9)8,325.4 (407.7)105.1 (16.6)
41,635.9 (133.5)429.9 (35.0)8,945.1 (592.5)109.2 (18.6)1,500.2 (59.2)400.5 (16.1)8,114.5 (445.6)107.3 (10.1)
51,657.3 (88.0)429.6 (22.5)8,988.3 (371.2)112.5 (9.7)1,472.6 (126.7)392.1 (37.1)7,993.1 (618.2)101.9 (11.8)
61,146.9 (69.3)305.1 (21.1)22,023.1 (149.3)87.1 (6.5)1,101.2 (55.8)299.4 (13.7)21,723.2 (202.6)81.4 (6.3)
71,160.2 (52.5)310.6 (20.6)22,041.2 (206.0)86.8 (6.2)1,088.2 (43.2)295.1 (15.3)21,784.2 (202.6)90.5 (11.5)
8772.5 (45.7)216.4 (14.0)37,516.9 (84.8)66.0 (8.9)775.0 (17.4)219.9 (11.6)37,529.3 (115.3)65.6 (10.3)
9780.5 (25.6)211.7 (12.1)37,560.0 (59.6)63.6 (7.4)756.8 (32.1)214.8 (10.5)37,569.0 (117.8)60.3 (5.0)
101,634.8 (79.3)428.2 (21.6)8,928.2 (336.2)116.0 (14.9)1,512.6 (50.1)398.3 (20.2)8,018.1 (248.3)104.5 (11.1)

Data from simulations on the single uniform town and ring town architectures are shown (simulations on the hub-and-spoke town architecture were not performed for the 50,000-person town).

From: 3, Strategies for Disease Containment

Cover of Ethical and Legal Considerations in Mitigating Pandemic Disease
Ethical and Legal Considerations in Mitigating Pandemic Disease: Workshop Summary.
Institute of Medicine (US) Forum on Microbial Threats.
Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2007.
Copyright © 2007, National Academy of Sciences.

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